Less than 10 days before the presidential election day, the polls show that the gap between former President Trump and current Vice President Harris continues to narrow. Trump has gained more support from Latino and Black male voters, while Harris has gained more support from White female voters. As the final sprint approaches, how will their momentum play out?
The latest series of national polls show that former President Trump is gradually closing the gap with Vice President Harris, while Harris still maintains an absolute fundraising advantage. According to the latest poll released by The New York Times/Siena College on October 25th, if Harris and Trump were to face off today, their support among potential voters would be tied at 48%. Including third-party and independent candidates, Trump leads Harris by 1 percentage point, 47% to 46%.
Economic issues have been the most concerning for voters during this election cycle, with 27% identifying it as the top issue. Abortion and immigration were tied as the second most prominent issues, with 15% each. In terms of the economy, 52% of voters believe Trump would handle the issue better, while 45% of Harris supporters think she would. Regarding abortion, more respondents trust Harris with 55% compared to Trump’s 40%. On immigration, 54% choose Trump, while 43% choose Harris.
When asked who could better handle the most important issues for them, 49% of respondents chose Trump, while 46% chose Harris. According to a recent poll by HarrisX and Forbes, Trump leads Harris nationwide by 2 percentage points.
The poll indicates that Trump is ahead of Harris with 51% to 49% support. However, in a survey from September, Harris was leading Trump by 4 percentage points. A survey released by The Wall Street Journal on October 23rd showed that in a hypothetical match-up including other candidates, Trump received 47% support among likely voters nationwide, while Harris received 45% support. In a head-to-head showdown, Trump led Harris by 3 percentage points, 49% to 46%.
Recent national polls, including those by CBS, Marist College, and USA Today/Suffolk University, show Harris slightly ahead of Trump. However, these leads are generally within the margin of error.
Since Biden announced he would not seek re-election on July 21st, Harris replaced him as the Democratic nominee for the 2024 presidential election. Her fundraising efforts surged, leading to an increase in poll support and consistently beating Trump in most national polls.
As of the poll average released on September 23rd, Harris was leading Trump at 50% to 45.6%. However, polls conducted in late September and October show Trump’s support gradually rising, closing the gap with Harris.
Fox News’ latest poll results last week, showing Trump at 50% support and Harris at 48%, marked a reversal from September when Harris had a clear lead.
Polling expert Chris Anderson noted to Fox News that Trump’s movement is subtle but could have a significant impact, especially if he makes progress among college-educated voters. However, the competition between Trump and Harris remains very close within the margin of error.
A Pew Research Center analysis indicates that Trump has gained support from 37% of Latino registered voters, up from 30% in the same period in 2020 when Biden held 54% support. In the 2020 election, Trump won 38% of the Latino vote, 21 points lower than Biden, according to Pew’s 2020 exit poll analysis.
The Republican Party is also hoping to chip away at the Democratic Party’s long-standing advantage among Black voters. In the latest poll, about 18% of Black male voters chose Trump, up from 14% four years ago, while the share of Black female voters supporting Trump increased from 4% to 8%. In the post-election 2020 national exit poll, around 8% of Black voters chose Trump, and the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll shows this figure now at 12%.
Republican strategist Kristin Davison attributed Trump’s success in attracting Black voters to his efforts to highlight the Democratic Party’s extreme positions on social issues. She said, “It’s about what Trump has done for African Americans and Hispanics, not just in economics and working hard, and mainly on national and family matters.”
During the 2016 presidential campaign, Trump famously asked Black voters, “What do you have to lose?”
On the other hand, Harris has somewhat won the support of White female voters, maintaining a competitive stance against Trump. Although there has been little change in support among White males for both candidates, Harris’s increase in support among White females has decreased Trump’s overall support among White voters, now with only a 9-point advantage, as compared to Trump’s 14-point lead over Biden among White voters in 2020.
Democratic strategist Meghan Hays, a former senior communications aide to President Biden, stated that women are also evaluating “the clear contrast in leadership and character between Vice President Harris and Trump, which is influencing their choices.” Hays added, “Vice President Harris must expand her lead among female voters to offset Trump’s lead among Black and Latino male voters. This election, Harris will win by a slim margin.”
Harris’s polling numbers among young male voters seemed to sound an alarm for Democrats. With the election day approaching, her campaign team is working hard to prevent divisions in this critical voting demographic.
A poll by Yale University released in October found that Harris leads Trump among young male and female voters. Among registered female voters under 30 years old, Harris leads Trump by 32 percentage points, but among male voters in the same age group, Harris only leads by about 5 percentage points.
The fall 2021 Harvard Youth Poll released in September also found that Harris has a broad advantage among young voters. She holds a 47-point lead among female voters under 30, but only a 17-point lead over Trump among male voters.
This trend can also be seen among young Black and Latino males, two critical groups in the Democratic coalition. A survey by GenForward released this week found that nearly a quarter of young Black males and 44% of young Latino males say they support Trump.
A report by the progressive think tank Data for Progress on October 22 revealed a 37-point lead for young women supporting Harris, but there is no clear winner among young men, with both Harris and Trump garnering 48% support.
Although young people overall still lean towards the Democratic Party, the dip in support among young males is also a concern for Democrats. As a result, besides running ads during major sports events, Harris’s campaign team released a series of ads targeting young male voters on platforms like Yahoo Sports, the sports betting platform DraftKings, and gaming platforms IGN and Fandom.
Harris and her running mate Tim Walz have also been actively engaging with young male audiences through interviews on various shows. Last week, Harris appeared on radio host Charlamagne Tha God’s show, while Walz was interviewed by sports commentator Rich Eisen.
However, strategists noted that the trend of young men moving away from the Democratic Party began even before Harris became the Democratic presidential nominee three months ago. The spring 2021 Harvard Youth Poll showed that Biden led Trump by only 6 percentage points among young males. During the same period in the 2020 election, Biden led Trump by 26 percentage points among this group.
Melissa Deckman, CEO of the nonpartisan research firm PRRI, told The Hill that there is ample evidence that young women and men are setting themselves apart politically in significant ways. Deckman authored “The Politics of Gen Z: How the Youngest Voters Will Shape Our Democracy.”
Deckman mentioned that there is evidence indicating a growing likelihood of young men supporting the Republican Party in the 2024 election cycle. She said, “The question of whether Trump can win over most young men is worth watching. I believe it’s possible.”
She thought that Trump’s campaign team’s approach to reaching young male voters was “pretty savvy,” citing themes related to “masculine qualities” and appearing on popular podcasts and events like the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC).
However, Deckman also pointed out that the Democratic Party’s outreach to these demographic groups may seem lacking, despite Harris bringing significant energy to young Democratic voters and a building support among Gen Z and Millennial voters after Biden stepped out of the presidential race.
Deckman suggested that Democratic attention seemed overly focused on young women. For instance, Harris recently appeared on the popular podcast “Call Her Daddy,” favored by young women.
Democratic strategist Mike Nellis, part of the “White Dudes for Harris” outreach organization, reminded the Democratic Party saying, “There’s an ongoing war in America today about what masculinity is and masculinity will be, and I think the Democratic Party as a whole isn’t doing well in engaging in that fight. I think we need to do better in messaging things that can be spread.”
Polling expert Frank Luntz noted in a recent interview that Vice President Harris’s performance leading up to the November election is not favorably portrayed. He suggested that as she “stands against Trump,” her campaign momentum has been “frozen.”
During a CNN segment on “This Morning” on October 22, Luntz expressed that Harris performed best when explaining why she was qualified to be President, but her progress halted as she shifted focus to attacking former President Trump. He said, “Interestingly enough, when Kamala Harris focused on why she should be President, she saw growth in support.”
“She had the best 60 days of any presidential candidate in modern history and then at that moment when she turned and started attacking Trump, when she focused on Trump, and said ‘it’s not a vote for me, it’s a vote against him’…everything froze.”
Many Democrats still believe that Harris will ultimately win, but there are concerns within the party that she might fail.
A Democratic strategist told The Hill, “Everyone’s been saying ‘dead heat’. Yes, it’s a dead heat, but is the trajectory of things what we expected? No. Can we still win? Maybe. Should anyone be a little bit more optimistic now? No, they shouldn’t.”
In an interview on CNN, Luntz remarked that Trump has not won or lost anything, but the current momentum seems to be in Trump’s favor.
He said, “The fact is, Donald Trump is defined; he hasn’t won anything, he hasn’t lost anything. He is who he is. His voters are right there. But she (Harris) isn’t defined. And if she continues to define this campaign as a ‘vote against Trump,’ she stays in place, and she could lose.”
CNN polling expert Harry Enten stated that despite the polls showing Vice President Harris and former President Trump virtually tied in all seven crucial swing states, this year is “more likely” to have a candidate sweep the major battleground states, leading to a “spray” of electoral votes.
As a senior political data reporter for CNN, Enten remarked on October 24th that his election model indicated a 60% chance for the winning candidate to garner at least 300 electoral votes, significantly surpassing the 270 threshold required for victory.
He said, “Although we’ve been talking about how this election is very tight in historical terms, it’s still possible for the winner to ‘spray’ electorally. Even though we’re talking about a very close election, there’s still a possibility here where the winner does very well in all the swing states.”
Enten emphasized that the average poll error among the key battleground states since 1972 is 3.4 percentage points. If the polling errors are canceled out this year, there is a possibility for a candidate to sweep all seven states.
He noted that in past elections, there have been instances where a candidate outperformed expectations in most states, indicating a widespread support for either the Democratic Party or the Republican Party.
Enten mentioned that in the elections of 2012, 92% of state polls underestimated then-President Obama, 83% underestimated Trump in 2016, and 100% underestimated Trump in 2020.
“Therefore, if swing state polls underestimate one candidate this time, they underestimate all candidates in each state, don’t be surprised. This will lead to a ‘spray’ of electoral college votes, with one candidate winning at least 300 electoral votes,” Enten said.