Recently, the Hong Kong government’s Census and Statistics Department released the latest data on retail industry confidence. According to the survey on “Business Situation Expectations” for the second quarter, 13% of the interviewed companies indicated that they expected better business conditions compared to the previous quarter. Meanwhile, 58% anticipated no change, and 29% expected a decline. The net difference (better minus worse) stood at -16%, marking the first negative value since the post-pandemic period began, compared to a positive 3% in the previous quarter.
The positive or negative values of the “net difference” reflect the general level of optimism or pessimism among the respondents, rather than the magnitude of expected changes.
Regarding expectations of increased business, 21% of respondents (down from 25% last month) foresaw growth, while 34% (up from 15% last month) predicted a decline. The remaining respondents reported no change, resulting in a net difference (increase minus decrease) of -13% (compared to +10% last month).
In terms of employment, 9% of surveyed companies expressed intentions to hire more staff (unchanged from the previous quarter). The net difference (hiring minus layoffs) was +6% (compared to +7% in the previous quarter).
As for the pricing of goods, the net difference (increase minus decrease) recorded was -11% (compared to -3% in the previous quarter).
The Census and Statistics Department also released data on the profitability and financial condition of the retail industry, showing net differences (good versus poor) of +7% (compared to +7% in the previous quarter) and +29% (compared to +30% in the previous quarter) respectively.
Furthermore, in terms of access to credit, the net difference between companies finding it easy versus difficult to obtain loans was +40% (compared to +31% in the previous quarter).