Hamas has lost about half of its forces in an eight-month-long war and is now relying on hit-and-run ambush tactics to resist Israeli efforts to control Gaza.
According to three senior US officials familiar with the battlefield dynamics, the ruling group in Gaza has decreased from an estimated 20,000 to 25,000 combatants before the conflict to 9,000 to 12,000 now. In contrast, Israel claims to have lost nearly 300 soldiers in the Gaza campaign.
One official stated that Hamas fighters are now avoiding sustained small-scale clashes with Israeli forces near the southern city of Rafah and instead are relying on ambushes and improvised explosive devices to target enemy rear positions.
Another official mentioned that the Palestinian organization has demonstrated the ability to swiftly withdraw, hide, regroup after attacks, and reappear in areas where Israel believed armed militants had been cleared out.
Several Gaza residents, including Wissam Ibrahim, have noted the shift in Hamas tactics. Ibrahim told Reuters over the phone that previously, Hamas fighters would intercept and fire at Israeli forces whenever they entered Hamas territory. “However, their actions have significantly changed now. They wait for the Israeli deployment to complete before launching attacks,” he said.
According to an anonymous US official, Hamas’ new ambush tactics rely heavily on smuggling weapons via underground tunnels into Gaza, weapons recovered from unexploded ordnance, or weapons captured from Israeli forces, with the expectation that this tactic can sustain Hamas resistance for months.
Hamas’ propaganda efforts coincide with their ambush operations, with some Hamas fighters filming ambushes on Israeli troops, editing the footage, and distributing it on social media platforms like Telegram.
An Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman, Peter Lerner, informed Reuters that the military is adapting to Hamas’ tactical shift and acknowledged that Israel cannot eliminate every Hamas fighter or destroy every Hamas tunnel.
Lerner stated, “Our goal has never been to kill every terrorist on the ground; that’s not a realistic goal. But dismantling Hamas as a governing authority is a military objective that can be achieved.”
He added that Israel is still a long way from defeating Hamas, which has been in control of the Gaza Strip since 2006, and that it will be facing a protracted conflict.
Lerner said, “Given Hamas’ 17-year capacity-building, the Hamas issue cannot be solved quickly.” However, he noted that Hamas has already lost about half of its combat capabilities.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s national security adviser stated last week that the war would continue at least until the end of 2024.
Currently, Netanyahu and his government are under pressure from Washington to agree to a ceasefire plan to end the conflict.
Netanyahu has been ignoring domestic and international calls to develop a post-war plan for the territory. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that without such a roadmap, the enclave could fall into lawlessness and power vacuum.
An Arab official told Reuters that criminal gangs have emerged in Gaza during the power vacuum, engaging in food looting and armed robberies.
The official, along with two other anonymous Arab government sources, mentioned that the Israeli Defense Forces could face threats similar to those encountered during the US entry into Fallujah in Iraq from 2004 to 2006.
The widespread insurgency in Fallujah initially bolstered al-Qaeda’s ranks and later fueled the rise of the Islamic State, plunging Iraq into conflict and chaos, a situation that remains unresolved two decades later.
In a closed-door briefing to the Israeli parliamentary Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee last week, former Israeli military chief of staff, Gadi Eisenkot, who served in Netanyahu’s war cabinet, emphasized the complexity of the Israeli-Hamas conflict.
He stated, “This is a struggle involving religious, ethnic, social, and military aspects that cannot be resolved once and for all but will continue as a protracted battle for years.”
According to Israeli and US officials, an estimated 7,000 to 8,000 Hamas fighters are stationed in the organization’s crucial last bastion, Rafah. Top Hamas military leaders Yahya Sinwar, his brother Mohammed, and Sinwar’s deputy, Mohammed Deif, are believed to be alive and hiding underground with Israeli hostages.
Over the years, Hamas has constructed an underground tunnel city stretching 500 kilometers (310 miles), known as the Gaza Metro by the Israeli military. The labyrinth includes water, electricity, ventilation systems, and houses Hamas leaders, command and control centers, and weapons depots.
The Israeli military announced last week that they had discovered around 20 tunnels used by Hamas to transport weapons into Gaza and had gained control of the entire Gaza-Egypt land border to prevent weapon smuggling.
Egyptian officials had previously denied any secret deals and claimed to have destroyed tunnel networks leading to Gaza years ago.
Washington and its Arab allies are discussing how to develop a post-conflict plan for Gaza, including a time-bound, irreversible path to a Palestinian state.
US officials stated that the plan is part of a “grand bargain” envisioned by the US to normalize Saudi Arabia-Israel relations.
A UAE official familiar with the discussions mentioned that emergency aid operations in Gaza would require an invitation from Palestinians, an end to hostilities, complete Israeli disengagement, and a clear legal status for Gaza, including border control.
The UAE official mentioned that the emergency aid operations would last for a year with potential extensions for another year.
He added that a more detailed roadmap for reconstruction, along with serious and credible reforms of Palestinian institutions, is essential to begin rebuilding.
Officials in Riyadh stated that a resolution to the Israeli-Hamas conflict is one of the conditions for normalizing Israeli-Palestinian relations, but it remains unclear how the US intends to persuade Netanyahu.
Former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot suggested establishing an international alliance led by Egypt to replace Hamas’ rule in Gaza.
David Schenker, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs responsible for the US, dismissed any suggestions for a complete Israeli military withdrawal from Palestinian territories.
He mentioned, “Israel has said it will maintain security control, meaning they will continue sending drones over Gaza. If they see Hamas resurgence, they will go back without restrictions.”
The attack on Gaza is the longest and most intense military operation by Israel since the operation in Lebanon in 1982, which expelled the PLO.
The Israeli-Hamas war began on October 7 last year when Hamas fighters launched a sudden attack on southern Israel. According to Israeli statistics, the attack resulted in over 1,200 deaths and more than 250 people taken as hostages.
Subsequent ground and air assaults by Israel in Gaza left the enclave in ruins. According to the Palestinian Health Ministry, Israel’s counterattacks resulted in over 36,000 deaths. The United Nations has warned that over a million people face “catastrophic” starvation.