The leader of the Hamas extremist organization in Palestine, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in an airstrike in Iran on the early morning of July 31st. This incident has the potential to escalate tensions in the Middle East region, making ceasefire negotiations in Gaza more complicated and difficult.
Haniyeh’s death has once again put the Middle East at the center of geopolitical conflicts. This event may further complicate the stalled Gaza peace negotiations.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran has directly accused Israel of being responsible for the attack. The organization claimed that rockets or drones attacked Haniyeh’s residence in the early hours of Wednesday, killing Haniyeh and his bodyguards.
The United States designated Haniyeh as a specially designated global terrorist in 2018. However, Haniyeh has been residing in the Qatari capital of Doha for many years. On July 30th, he attended the inauguration ceremony of Iran’s new President Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran.
According to the Iranian state-run news agency IRNA, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed retaliation against Israel for Haniyeh’s death.
Hamas spokesperson Sami Abu Zahri also accused Israel of killing Haniyeh and stated that they would continue their war with Israel.
Israel has not claimed responsibility for Haniyeh’s death. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who is still on an Asian visit, stated on Wednesday that the US was not aware of, nor involved in the attack, but reiterated efforts to achieve a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, ensure the release of around 116 Israeli hostages, and address the crisis in Gaza.
Neomi Neumann, a visiting researcher at the Washington Institute and former head of the Israeli Security Agency research department, told the Congress Mountain News: “Israel has sent a clear message to Iran by attacking Haniyeh in Tehran: Israel will hold Iran accountable for all its proxies – Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthi militants.”
Neumann added, “What we are talking about now is not revenge, but rather a new design, new deterrence, and new relationships in the Middle East.”
In the past 9 months, Israel has been working to dismantle Hamas in retaliation for last year’s sudden attack on Israel on October 7, which resulted in the deaths of over 1,100 Israelis and the kidnapping of about 250 Israeli hostages. Over 110 hostages are still held in Hamas-controlled Gaza.
Since October 8th last year, the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah has been firing artillery and rockets at Israel in coordination with Hamas.
The Houthi armed group in Yemen has been attacking merchant ships in the Red Sea since November last year, forcing major shipping companies to avoid the route, disrupting the global supply chain.
According to reports, based on images released by the Houthi armed group of their military training, their targets include ships flying the flags of the United States, UK, and Israel.
Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthi armed group are all recognized as terrorist organizations by the US government.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated on Wednesday that Israel is achieving its war goals and vowed to hold anyone who harms Israel accountable.
Netanyahu did not mention Haniyeh’s death, as he has been engaged in the Hamar War for almost 10 months, saying, “In the first few days of the war, I said it would take some time, require patience from all of us. Those who have been telling me to end the war for months, domestically and internationally, because we have exhausted everything we can do to achieve our goals, cannot win this war.”
He added, “But I did not yield to these voices then, and I won’t yield to them today. If we yield to this pressure, we wouldn’t have killed Hamas leaders and thousands of terrorists.”
Netanyahu acknowledged that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s senior adviser and top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr were killed in an Israeli attack on Beirut, Lebanon on Tuesday, July 30th.
This was Israel’s retaliation against Hezbollah because Shukr commanded Hezbollah in a rocket attack on the Golan Heights last Saturday, July 24th, which resulted in the deaths of 12 children in a town soccer field and injuries to about 20 town residents.
Netanyahu said, “We are settling accounts. We will settle accounts with anyone who massacres our children, murders our citizens. Anyone who harms our country will be brought to justice.”
Hezbollah has about 120,000 rockets, posing a greater threat than Hamas. Michael Rubin, policy director at the Middle East Forum, told the Congress Mountain News that the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel may have reached an uncontrollable level, saying, “The problem with this conflict is deterrence has disappeared, and Hezbollah has become accustomed to attacking Israel without consequences.”
Rubin predicted that unless Lebanon and the United Nations take greater action to contain Hezbollah, war will erupt.
He added, “The outcome will be war, and it looks like Gaza (war), as the current situation cannot contain Hezbollah.”
Israel also carried out strikes against the Houthi armed group in Yemen on July 20th, following the group’s drone attack in Tel Aviv the day before, which resulted in the death of an Israeli and injuries to 10 others.
In a ceasefire agreement in Gaza last November, 105 Israeli hostages were released. This year, the US has once again pressured Israel and Hamas to achieve a ceasefire and peace agreement in three stages.
Netanyahu stated at a speech in the US Congress on July 24 that he is “confident” in reaching a ceasefire agreement, but he is also pushing for the “thorough destruction” of Hamas through military actions. He believes that Israel can still achieve both defeating Hamas and rescuing hostages.
In his speech to the US Congress, Netanyahu said, “We have gained all these achievements over the past few months because we did not surrender, because despite immense pressure from within and outside, we made some very brave decisions. It is not easy. I had to withstand so much pressure.”
Israel’s attacks on Lebanon and Iran within two days have raised concerns in the US about the escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the lack of help in ending the Hamar War ceasefire and peace agreement.
John Kirby, communicator advisor for the White House National Security Council, said in a press briefing on Wednesday, “The reports in the past 24 to 48 hours certainly do not help to cool things down. We are obviously concerned about the escalation of the situation.”
Kirby noted that the recent events have made the ceasefire agreement to end the Gaza war more complicated.
He said in a White House press release, “All of this adds to the complexity of what we are trying to achieve. We are working on an agreement that allows you over six weeks, get many hostages (most of whom are in danger) out of there and reunited with their families. And at the same time, get more humanitarian aid to (Gaza).”
Kirby added, “Achieving this result will certainly not be easier when traumatic events and acts of violence occur for any reason.”
He emphasized that President Biden’s focus is on ensuring the ceasefire agreement. Biden and Vice President Harris discussed the ceasefire agreement with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu during their time in Washington last week.
Kirby said, “The agreement on the table is a good one, and both sides should accept it and take it seriously to discuss the details… and let’s keep moving forward.”
Earlier on Wednesday, Secretary of State Blinken stated that the US had no involvement in Haniyeh’s death. He emphasized that the US remains concerned about the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, saying, “It is the best way to cool things down.”
However, the Associated Press reported that Israel’s attacks early on Wednesday may have almost ruined the current hopes of the US.
President Biden has been focusing his political influence on ensuring a ceasefire and the release of hostages, publicly announcing a ceasefire framework and urging Israel and Hamas to reach an agreement.
Analysts and diplomats have warned that any escalation of such hostile actions could lead to uncontrollable conflicts in the entire Middle East region, dragging the US, as Israel’s ally, into war.
Countries like the US and France are urging Israel, Iran, and their allies (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthi armed group) to resolve tensions through negotiations.
The day before Hamas leader Haniyeh was killed, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz stated in an open letter to foreign diplomats on Tuesday, July 30 that Israel is not interested in full-scale war, but the only way to prevent the expansion of war is to implement the 2006 UN resolution to establish a “non-military zone” along the Israeli-Lebanese border and demand Hezbollah to end hostile actions.