The German navy fleet is expected to sail through the Taiwan Strait this month, drawing strong opposition from China. Analysts believe that in response to China’s recent provocations in neighboring waters, Germany has been following the United States in demonstrating its concern for peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait through actions. Western countries are also beefing up their military presence in the Indo-Pacific region as a deterrent to China, aiming to prevent war and maintain peace, which has become an international consensus.
The German magazine Der Spiegel reported last Saturday that two navy ships deployed in the Indo-Pacific region by Germany will transit the Taiwan Strait in mid-September, marking the first crossing of this sensitive waterway by German navy ships in 22 years.
The fleet including the frigate “Baden-Wuerttemberg” and the replenishment ship “Frankfurt am Main” will be cruising and conducting visits in the Indo-Pacific region. They have already visited Japan and South Korea and are scheduled to visit the Philippines next.
The German navy fleet is participating in exercises in the region along with navies from France, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, and the United States.
“The overall objective of this deployment is to reaffirm Germany’s commitment to a rules-based international order, and to train and exchange views with partners and allies in a spirit of trust and cooperation, in order to prevent potential conflicts,” said Rear Admiral Axel Schulz, commander of the fleet, following the fleet’s visit to Incheon, South Korea last Friday.
As reported by Voice of America, Schulz declined to provide a definitive answer on whether the fleet will pass through the Taiwan Strait, emphasizing that pre-announcing the fleet’s sailing plans could affect the safety of the operation.
Der Spiegel quoted unnamed sources as saying that the German government has decided not to formally notify Beijing about the transit of German navy ships through the Taiwan Strait, indicating that Berlin views the passage of warships through the Taiwan Strait as a “normal” navigation exercise.
According to Reuters, the German Foreign Ministry declined to comment on the matter.
In response, the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated its “firm opposition.” Spokesperson Mao Ning stated in a press conference on Monday that Beijing “firmly opposes” the German navy’s plan to transit the Taiwan Strait, emphasizing that such actions “provoke and endanger China’s sovereignty and security.”
Prior to the fleet’s departure from Germany in May, Beijing had warned the German military not to attempt to cross the Taiwan Strait. Der Spiegel’s report stated that the German Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs supported the passage of warships through the Taiwan Strait, while the Federal Chancellery initially had reservations.
However, Chairman of the German Federal Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee Michael Roth expressed support for the German warships’ transit through the Taiwan Strait. He believed the action was not provocative but rather a clear signal to Beijing that Germany opposes any unilateral efforts by China to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait through force.
According to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, in waters beyond territorial seas, all countries have the right to “freedom of navigation,” meaning that ships of any country have the right to exercise these freedoms without interference from other states. The U.S. Navy’s Operational Handbook also defines the Taiwan Strait as an “international strait.”
Zhong Zhitong, an assistant professor at the Institute of National Defense Strategy and Resources at the National Defense University of Taiwan, stated that the passage of the German navy through the Taiwan Strait is a demonstration and declaration to China, a deterrent action aimed at preventing potential military conflicts. It also highlights Germany’s cooperation with the U.S., Europe, and Indo-Pacific allies to deter China’s unilateral actions in the Taiwan Strait and maintain peace and stability in the region.
Christoph Heusgen, the current Chairman of the Munich Security Conference, suggested to the German government to disregard threats from Beijing and allow the warships to pass through the Taiwan Strait.
“China wants to enforce its own rules, and we have to resist that. It’s very important. If we are now submitting to the logic of power, we will set a precedent that could spread to other places,” he said.
Furthermore, Zhong Zhitong mentioned that this gesture demonstrates the warming relations between Germany and Taiwan.
Currently, both shores of the Taiwan Strait are important trade partners of Germany. The vast market of China and the advanced semiconductor industry in Taiwan are crucial factors for Germany’s economic development.
“Recently, TSMC established a fab in Germany, attended by the Chancellor and other high-ranking officials. This also highlights the importance of Taiwan-Germany relations. Germany also takes this opportunity to demonstrate the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait for Germany and the world,” Zhong Zhitong said.
In June of this year, the President of the European joint venture of TSMC revealed that construction of a new factory in Dresden, eastern Germany, will commence in the fourth quarter of this year, with large-scale production scheduled to begin in 2027. Half of the investment in this project comes from EU and German government subsidies.
In recent years, as China has shown increasingly aggressive postures in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, some countries have adjusted their strategies, continuously strengthening their military presence in the Indo-Pacific region.
Zhong Zhitong stated that overall, Germany’s actions are not sudden. Since the G7 began including Taiwan Strait issues since 2021, NATO and the EU have also shown concern for peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, placing the Taiwan Strait security issue within the framework of NATO and the EU.
Since Germany introduced its Indo-Pacific Policy Guidelines in 2020, Berlin’s involvement in Indo-Pacific affairs has notably increased.
In 2021, a German warship crossed the South China Sea for the first time in nearly 20 years. In July of this year, the German Air Force deployed fighter jets to Japan for joint exercises for the first time.
In July last year, Germany introduced its “China Strategy” for the first time, which maintains principles while reducing dependence and risks related to China. Chancellor Scholz stated on X that through this strategy, Germany is responding to China’s “changing and increasingly aggressive behavior.”
A few weeks ago, the German Air Force, together with the French and Spanish air forces, deployed a total of 50 military aircraft to Japan, Australia, and Hawaii to participate in joint military exercises. The aircraft included A400M tactical transport planes and Eurofighter aircraft.
The U.S. Navy ships now almost sail through the Taiwan Strait every month, and other U.S. allies, including Canada, the UK, France, and Australia, also deploy naval ships either independently or in formation with U.S. ships to transit the Taiwan Strait.
Zhong Zhitong believes that this largely reflects the increasing international support for Taiwan and the internationalization of security in the Taiwan Strait.
Chairman Roth of the German Federal Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee also stated that a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait could have a disastrous impact on the German and global economy, and therefore, “preventing war and the blockade of Taiwan” is a core interest of Germany. He urged Germany to follow the examples of the Netherlands and Canada by expressing support for peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait through the passage of warships.
Shu Xiaohuang, deputy researcher at the National Defense Think Tank Preparatory Office of the Ministry of National Defense of Taiwan, believes that this passage carries a declarative significance, telling Beijing that the Taiwan Strait is international waters where all countries, including warships, have the right to pass through.
The U.S. House of Representatives passed several anti-communist bills on Monday, including the Taiwan Conflict Deterrence Act and the Pacific Partnership Act, calling for close cooperation with Taiwan and Pacific island countries to deter China and maintain peace.
Angela Stanzel, an Asia-Pacific expert at the Berlin Science and Politics Foundation, previously told the German newspaper Handelsblatt, “The stronger the Western presence in the Indo-Pacific region, the more China will moderate its behavior, and the lower the risk of military conflict in the region.”
In July, more than 30 NATO countries and the Quad countries in the Indo-Pacific region issued a joint statement in Washington, singling out the threat posed by China and condemning Beijing’s “exposed ambitions and coercive policies that threaten our interests, security, and values,” while sharply criticizing China’s support for Russia.
Shu Xiaohuang indicated that the Washington Declaration has a profound impact on EU-China relations. “We can see that the spillover effect of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has already reached the Taiwan Strait, and now the whole EU is pressuring Beijing through the Taiwan Strait.”
Zhong Zhitong also believes that, overall, NATO’s “Washington Declaration” has indicated its concern for the entire Indo-Pacific region, and it has actively engaged in Indo-Pacific affairs. However, it is unlikely to become a NATO of the Indo-Pacific in the near future. Nevertheless, as China and Russia deepen their alliance and tensions between the U.S. and China escalate, and with the starkly different worldviews between the West and China, NATO’s involvement in Indo-Pacific security will continue to expand in breadth and depth.