Recently, Germany has dispatched two warships to the Indo-Pacific region and is planning joint military exercises with the Japanese Self-Defense Forces. Analysts believe that Germany’s strengthening of ties with Japan is a clear response to the military threats posed by China. At a time when the Chinese Communist Party leader is visiting Europe, experts believe that its ability to sow divisions in Europe is limited, especially regarding Europe’s stance on the Russia-Ukraine situation where Beijing has no middle ground and must make a choice.
Germany sent two warships to the Indo-Pacific region on Tuesday, May 7th. The German Navy’s “Frankfurt” supply ship departed from Wilhelmshaven, while the “Baden-Württemberg” frigate set sail from the port of Rota in Spain. The two warships will meet at sea, head to Halifax, Canada, and then proceed to the Indo-Pacific region.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stated at the Wilhelmshaven naval base in northern Germany that “Germany will not send warships to the Indo-Pacific region unless they support the order based on international rules.” He emphasized the importance of such support.
Approximately 40% of the goods in Europe’s foreign trade pass through the South China Sea. The United States-led allied forces have been conducting patrols in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait.
It is reported that Germany’s two warships will pass through the South China Sea, but whether they will pass through the Taiwan Strait is yet to be decided. Pistorius stated, “A decision has not been made yet. Since several naval vessels from allied countries have already passed through the Taiwan Strait, this is clearly an option.”
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock stated during a visit to New Zealand last Saturday that Germany does not rule out the possibility of its warships passing through the Taiwan Strait.
In addition, German army units are expected to visit Japan next year to conduct joint military exercises with the Japanese Ground Self-Defense Forces. This will be the first formal joint exercise between the two countries’ armies since World War II.
Pistorius explained in an interview with Yomiuri Shimbun that due to China’s frequent activities in the Indo-Pacific region, Germany intends to deepen cooperation with partners in the region to emphasize the importance of upholding the international order. The German army and the Japanese Ground Self-Defense Forces are currently negotiating to facilitate joint training in Japan.
The German Navy and Air Force have previously conducted training exercises with the Japanese Self-Defense Forces and have participated in joint military exercises in the Indo-Pacific region with naval forces from allied countries like the United States.
Retired Major General and former dean of the Political Warfare Academy at Taiwan’s National Defense University, Yu Zongji, analyzed that this time Germany intends to emphasize sending warships to the South China Sea, possibly even passing through the Taiwan Strait, symbolizing Germany’s preparation for a formal military alliance with Japan after World War II. This move is clearly aimed at countering China, given Japan’s military strengthening along the first island chain in response to Chinese military threats.
Regarding Germany’s enhanced cooperation with Japan in joint operations, Yu Zongji believes it is aimed at deterring any military adventures by China in Japan, the South China Sea, and even the Taiwan Strait.
“The fact that Germany is particularly emphasizing further signing a mutual access memorandum with Japan next year and conducting concrete military cooperation signals its strategic intentions. Despite not being explicitly mentioned, including the Taiwan Strait issue, Germany considers peace and security as crucial, clearly targeting China (the CCP).”
Regarding Germany’s recent military actions, Su Ziyun, director of the Institute of National Defense Strategy and Resources at the Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security Studies, also analyzed that this is mainly due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, where Europe is increasingly seeing China as a supporter of Russia, which undoubtedly impacts European security. Thus, against this backdrop, there has been a shift in Europe’s political climate.
In 2022, NATO released a new decade-long strategic report designating China as a challenger. Subsequently, in July 2023, Germany issued its first-ever “China Strategy” report.
This 64-page document stated that Beijing’s decision to expand its relationship with Russia has immediate security implications for Germany, requiring a strategic adjustment in its approach towards China.
The report warned that the status quo in the Taiwan Strait can only be changed through peaceful means and mutual agreement. Germany will expand its close ties with Taiwan while adhering to the “One China” policy.
“This is a crucial strategic turning point,” Su Ziyun believes, emphasizing that the emphasis on “One China” differs from China’s one-China principle by aiming to maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.
After the report’s approval, German Foreign Minister Baerbock stated that tensions in the Taiwan Strait cannot be ignored, highlighting that half of the world’s container ships pass through the Taiwan Strait, carrying machinery, food, medicine, and other goods crucial to the global economy. She warned that a conflict in the Taiwan Strait would impact the entire world.
Su Ziyun believes, “This is a monumental shift, although not many people paid attention to it at the time.” However, just like France, Germany’s policy change has led to practical implementation.
Therefore, Su Ziyun argues that firstly, Germany is adjusting its strategy towards China by urging Beijing to cease supporting Russia, emphasizing transparency in economic coercion.
Secondly, Germany’s deployment of warships to the Indo-Pacific region aligns with last year’s China strategy report, aiming to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. The reason is that “the Taiwan Strait is the lifeline of the global economy, and Germany feels the continuous pressure from China in the Taiwan Strait and the coercion in the South China Sea towards the Philippines. Therefore, the arrival of German warships signifies a formal statement from the German government.”
“Furthermore, joint exercises with Japan and collaborations with the United States illustrate a strategic stance in this regard.”
Recently, Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping visited Europe, starting in France, where he met with French President Macron and EU President von der Leyen. Macron requested Xi Jinping to promise to withdraw partial support from Russia and ensure fair competition in trade. However, Xi and Macron clearly had differing agendas.
Regarding the Russia-Ukraine issue, Xi emphasized to Macron that China is not a crisis instigator and urged against exploiting the Ukraine crisis to shift blame and incite a new Cold War.
However, according to Agence France-Presse, Xi Jinping was said to have promised not to export weapons to the Russian military and strictly control the dual-use items for military purposes.
Su Ziyun believes that Xi’s statements are mere diplomatic rhetoric, stating that while China claimed not to provide military equipment, U.S.-led concerns include non-operational resources.
He explains that the deliberate attempt to draw a comparison with U.S. arms sales to Taiwan makes it clear that other countries are not fooled. “Because Taiwan’s defense is defensive, while Russia’s actions are aggressive, these cannot be equated. This is probably why Germany is willing to send warships to the Indo-Pacific region.”
Yu Zongji also remarked that Xi’s focus on France stems from France’s emphasis on strategic autonomy, making it a prime target for China to divide and counterbalance the entire EU and the U.S.
German Chancellor Scholz recently visited China, but Yu Zongji expressed that Xi Jinping’s visit to Europe and the fact that Scholz did not meet with Xi together with Macron or von der Leyen after returning from China indicate Scholz faces significant domestic criticism.
“Therefore, Germany’s actions actually demonstrate that the stance of European countries towards Beijing is unified.”
The U.S. has repeatedly pointed out that China has been a critical factor in supporting Russia’s defense industry. AFP once quoted U.S. officials saying that 90% of Russia’s imports of microelectronic products for missile, tank, and aircraft production last year came from China.
Yu Zongji stated that in April, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken made it clear at the G7 that Beijing must cease all forms of private military logistics and arms-related imports with Russia, whether publicly or confidentially.
NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg explicitly pointed out that Beijing’s attempt to adopt a two-handed approach between Russia and the EU is impractical, emphasizing that China must choose between Russia or the EU, with no middle ground.
However, Yu Zongji analyzed, “Germany wishes to maintain a good economic relationship with China, but in terms of national security and the overall security of Europe, this decision is not solely within Germany’s power.”
“After all, involving the entire NATO, Stoltenberg has made it clear that there is no middle ground. One can either abandon ties with Russia to improve relations with EU countries, or lean towards Russia and stand against the EU countries in Europe.”
Putin recently announced a visit to Beijing and a meeting with Xi Jinping. Yu Zongji believes that the joint statement released after the meeting between Putin and Xi will be the key point.
“Whether Beijing is willing to stop the bleeding, pressure Russia to quickly reach a peaceful agreement, or what agreement the two sides negotiate will provide a clearer picture of whether Xi Jinping will choose to continue allying with Russia or pivot towards developing economic relationships with European countries.”