The German military’s top brass has issued a warning that Russia has the capability to launch limited attacks on NATO territory at any time, but whether they will take action depends on the stance and deterrent efforts of Western allies.
German Army Lieutenant General Alexander Sollfrank, speaking to Reuters, stated, “Observing Russia’s current abilities and combat readiness, they have the capability to launch small-scale attacks on NATO territory as early as tomorrow.” He added, “These attacks would be small, swift, and regionally limited, not full-scale operations – as Russia is heavily involved in the conflict in Ukraine, they are not able to make large-scale moves.”
Sollfrank, who oversees both domestic and international combat missions for the German Federal Armed Forces Operations Command, responsible for defense planning, echoed previous NATO warnings that if Russia continues to expand its military capabilities, they could potentially launch a large-scale attack on the 32-nation alliance as early as 2029.
However, Russian President Putin has denied any aggressive intentions, claiming that the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine was Moscow’s defense against NATO’s eastward expansion.
Sollfrank, speaking from his military headquarters in northern Berlin, noted that despite setbacks in Ukraine, the Russian Air Force still maintains considerable combat power, and their nuclear and missile forces remain unaffected.
While the Russian Black Sea Fleet suffered significant losses, Sollfrank added that other fleet sizes have not been diminished. “Although there have been losses in ground forces, the Russians claim to plan to expand their total forces to 1.5 million troops,” he said.
Sollfrank emphasized that “Russia has enough main battle tanks to potentially launch limited attacks as early as tomorrow,” but did not mention whether such attack plans currently exist within the Russian military.
Germany’s Federal Armed Forces eliminated the distinction between overseas and domestic operations in 2024, integrating the Potsdam-based Joint Support and Enabling Command for overseas missions and the Berlin-based Territorial Command for domestic missions into the new Federal Armed Forces Operations Command. This unified command structure supports NATO allies in defense missions on European soil.
Since its establishment, Sollfrank has been leading the command. This shift reflects a significant change in focus for the German military from overseas missions in places like Afghanistan and Mali to the defense of NATO territory.
Before taking on this role, Sollfrank commanded the NATO Logistics Command “Joint Support and Enabling Command” in the southern German city of Ulm.
Recent incidents of drone invasions into Polish airspace have heightened Western concerns about escalating Russian actions.
Earlier this year, Berlin relaxed constitutional debt restrictions to meet a new NATO target of increasing defense spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2029. This move will raise defense budgets from around 100 billion euros in 2025 to approximately 160 billion euros (187 billion dollars) in 2029.
Additionally, Germany plans to expand its military by sixty thousand personnel, bringing total forces to around 260,000 troops.
Sollfrank stated that whether Moscow attacks NATO depends on three factors: Russia’s military capabilities, military record, and leadership.
He added, “Based on these three factors, I conclude that the possibility of a Russian attack does exist, but whether it will actually happen largely depends on our own actions,” alluding to NATO’s deterrent efforts.
The general also highlighted Moscow’s hybrid tactics, including drone invasions, as closely linked strategic elements, with the war in Ukraine being a part of it.
Sollfrank said, “The Russians call this non-linear warfare. In their military theory, this is considered a prelude to conventional weapon use, while the threat of using nuclear weapons falls into the category of deterrence.”
He further pointed out that Russia’s goals include provocation, testing NATO’s responses, and creating insecurity, spreading fear, causing disruption, conducting espionage activities, and assessing the resilience of the alliance.
(Adapted from reports by Reuters)