In the midst of the increasing threat from the Chinese Communist Party to neighboring countries, Japan’s newly appointed Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba advocates for a united front with allies like the United States, Taiwan, and Australia to deter the CCP. This stands in stark contrast to his mentor, Kakuei Tanaka, who broke the ice between Japan and China decades ago to establish diplomatic relations with Beijing.
On September 27, former Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party Ishiba defeated Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi in the election, becoming the new 28th President of the Liberal Democratic Party, and was elected as the 102nd Prime Minister of Japan at the extraordinary session of the Diet held on October 1.
On Monday, Ishiba’s newly appointed Defense Minister Motoo Nakayama held talks at the Ministry of Defense with Commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral Samuel Paparo, to improve the command and control between Japan and the US, including enhancing the command and control framework between the Self-Defense Forces and US forces to strengthen cooperation.
On the same day, Ishiba’s newly appointed Foreign Minister Tsuyoshi Iwaya held his first telephone conversation with Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong after taking office. Both sides agreed to collaborate in various areas, including security, to realize a “free and open Indo-Pacific.”
Ishiba also aims to strengthen cooperation with Australia and countries in the South Pacific to counter the CCP. According to Kyodo News on Monday, the Japanese government will work with the US and Australia to enhance communication infrastructure in Pacific island nations. Countries maintaining diplomatic relations with Taiwan, such as Tuvalu and Palau, are among the beneficiaries planned for support. In addition to laying undersea cables, construction of land-based communication facilities like data centers will be promoted to counter CCP influence in the Pacific.
Prior to being elected as Prime Minister, Ishiba visited Taiwan as a member of parliament and held talks with President Tsai Ing-wen. He stated, “Today’s Ukraine could be tomorrow’s Northeast Asia. We must pool our wisdom to prevent Northeast Asia from becoming tomorrow’s Ukraine.”
Ishiba’s concerns are not unfounded. As Russia ignites warfare by invading Ukraine, the CCP threatens to “unify” Taiwan. According to NBC, in December of last year, CCP leader Xi Jinping told US President Biden at a summit in San Francisco that Beijing would achieve unification between Taiwan and the Chinese mainland, but the specific timing is still uncertain.
The CCP has also frequently engaged in territorial disputes with Japan in the East China Sea. On August 27, the Japanese military spotted a Chinese Y-9 reconnaissance aircraft circling over the Daito Islands off the southwestern coast of Kyushu Island for two minutes, prompting Japanese fighter jets to scramble and warn the Chinese aircraft to leave the airspace.
According to the Japanese military, between April 2023 and March 2024, Japanese jets scrambled nearly 669 times, with approximately 70% of the incidents directed at Chinese military aircraft.
In November 2022, when Xi Jinping inspected the Joint Operations Command Center of the Central Military Commission, he urged the military to “focus all their energies on combat operations and all work on preparation for armed conflict.”
Ishiba told President Tsai, “I hope to ensure regional deterrence, promote economic development, and ensure the safety and peace of everyone between Japan and Taiwan who share the same values.”
During his time in Taiwan, Ishiba also said, “It is crucial to make China (the CCP) realize that even using force will not succeed, or it will require a huge cost.”
Ishiba also hopes to strengthen Japan’s alliance with the United States. On the second day after being elected Prime Minister, Ishiba telephoned President Biden, expressing his intention to further strengthen the bilateral alliance which his predecessor and President Biden had already enhanced.
“I think former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and President Biden have greatly strengthened the Japan-US alliance,” Ishiba told reporters on October 2 after his call with Biden. “I have said that I want to take over this policy and further strengthen it.”
The day before, Ishiba shared his specific vision for upgrading the US-Japan alliance with reporters at the Prime Minister’s office. Ishiba referred to the current US-Japan alliance as “asymmetrical.” He expressed his desire to jointly manage US bases in Japan and Japanese bases in the US, which would necessitate revisions to the bilateral Mutual Defense Cooperation Agreement.
Carl Schuster, former Director of Operations at the Joint Intelligence Center of the US Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii, told the Epoch Times that he believes the US will adopt some of Ishiba’s suggestions. “Because Japan pays over 70% of the cost of our stationed forces in Japan. This is in sharp contrast to our European allies, most of whom charge us rent for the bases we have there.”
Schuster revealed that Japan pays for the rent and maintenance of US bases in Japan. “I know because when I was stationed in Okinawa, they paid for my upkeep and construction costs.”
Ishiba’s deterrent strategy towards the CCP sharply contrasts with the pro-China approach of his political mentor, former Japanese Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka, who held office for the 64th and 65th terms.
Ishiba’s father, Juro Ishiba, served as a member of the Japanese House of Councillors, Governor of Tottori Prefecture, and was a close friend of Kakuei Tanaka. After Juro Ishiba passed away in 1981, Tanaka served as the chairman of the funeral committee. At that time, Shigeru Ishiba, who was working at Mitsubishi Bank, visited Tanaka to express his gratitude. Tanaka advised Ishiba to run for the House of Representatives and taught him the key to success: “The number of households visited determines the number of votes.”
In 1986, Ishiba ran for a seat in the House of Representatives, visited 54,000 households in his hometown, and ultimately won with 56,534 votes, becoming known as “Kakuei Tanaka’s last disciple.”
Tanaka was the Japanese Prime Minister who facilitated the establishment of diplomatic relations with China. On September 29, 1972, just two months after forming his cabinet, Tanaka announced the formal establishment of diplomatic relations with Beijing. There was significant domestic opposition in Japan at that time. The day before Tanaka’s departure for China, some hawks within the Liberal Democratic Party even stormed into Tanaka’s home, attempting to prevent his trip to Beijing.
Determined to establish ties with Beijing, Tanaka’s decision was not unrelated to the CCP’s efforts to woo Japan.
After experiencing land reform, the Three Antis and Five Antis campaigns, the Great Leap Forward, and the Cultural Revolution, China’s economy was in dire straits and in urgent need of foreign capital and technology. Meanwhile, Japan’s economy was on an upward trajectory. Just 33 years after the end of World War II in 1978, Japan, rising from the ashes, became the world’s second-largest economy in terms of GDP, with an annual growth rate approaching 10%.
In October 1978, then-Vice Premier Deng Xiaoping made a groundbreaking visit to Tokyo, becoming the highest-ranking Chinese official to visit Japan.
During Deng Xiaoping’s visit to the consumer electronics giant Matsushita in Japan, he implored the company’s founder and chairman, Konosuke Matsushita: “You are hailed as the god of management in Japan. Would you be willing to help us advance China’s modernization?”
Deng Xiaoping got what he wanted. Matsushita invited 250 Chinese engineers to the company’s Ibaraki factory for a six-month learning program in manufacturing technology and management, who later became leaders in a joint venture CRT manufacturing plant in Beijing.
Additionally, Deng Xiaoping’s visit to Nippon Steel’s Kimitsu plant led to the establishment of China’s Baosteel. His visits to Japanese automakers facilitated the formation of several Sino-Japanese joint-venture automobile companies. These joint ventures accounted for three of the top five bestselling car brands in China.
However, over forty years after Deng Xiaoping’s visit to Japan, as Xi Jinping abandons the diplomatic policy of Deng Xiaoping’s “hide your strengths and bide your time” and reveals hegemonic intentions, relations between China and Japan have deteriorated.
In July last year, the Japanese government categorized 23 advanced semiconductor manufacturing devices and other products for export control. This move effectively aligned with the strengthened export control measures on China announced by the United States in October 2022. China will find it difficult to import the necessary cleaning, exposure, and testing equipment for advanced semiconductor manufacturing.
On August 26 this year, a Chinese Y-9 reconnaissance aircraft violated Japanese airspace near the Senkaku Islands in western Nagasaki Prefecture.
On September 18, the Liaoning aircraft carrier and two other Chinese naval vessels sailed between Okinawa Prefecture and the islands of Yonaguni and Iriomote near Taiwan, entering a neighboring region of Japan.
On the same day, a 10-year-old Japanese boy was stabbed to death by a 44-year-old Chinese man on his way to a Japanese language school in Shenzhen.
Following the incident, Panasonic Corporation, which in the past had dispatched over 200 engineers to help build plants in China, announced that it would allow Japanese employees and their families to temporarily return to Japan. Several Japanese companies, including Toshiba and Toyota Motor Corporation, also urged their employees in China to remain vigilant and ensure their safety. This event may accelerate the withdrawal of Japanese businesses from China.