Recently, there have been frequent warnings about the Chinese economy, which are not only reflected in the continued decline of the real estate market but also spreading to the commodities and consumer sectors. Many observers believe that the Chinese economy is facing severe challenges of structural recession. Analysis indicates that a more dreadful disaster than the Great Depression may be looming.
The real estate market in Shanghai, China’s largest city, is experiencing a rare sluggishness, with a drastic shift in market sentiment.
A well-known Weibo-certified blogger, “Master Mei,” who has been engaged in business training in China for many years and has over 250,000 followers on various social platforms, shared a troubling email he received from a Shanghai acquaintance (currently living abroad). The acquaintance sought help as they were unable to sell their house in Jing’an District, Shanghai. The house, purchased around 2010, is approximately 100 square meters. At its peak, the house was valued at over 10.5 million RMB. However, as the owner was abroad and witnessed the gradual decline in house prices over the years, they decided to sell. Despite lowering the listing price from 8.8 million to 7 million, there were no takers. “Master Mei” believes the only solution is further price reduction, stating, “There are no houses that can’t be sold, only prices that can’t be accepted.”
The circumstances described by Shanghai agents confirm the saying “houses in Shanghai cannot be sold.”
In a recent video shared by blogger “Grassroots Investors Focus on China,” multiple Shanghai agents and residents appeared, narrating real-life examples of the property market avalanche in Shanghai. One agent, Mr. Zhang, mentioned the sparse number of house viewers during the recent holiday period, with almost no customers coming to view properties. He expressed concerns about further price drops, with clients hesitant to make offers for fear of potential losses due to declining prices.
He cited an example of a client who purchased a new house two years ago, only to find that the remaining units in the complex were now being offered at an 15% discount along with complimentary parking spaces. The client, who bought the house for over 8 million RMB, had effectively lost nearly 2 million RMB in value within two years. This situation reflects the current market trend where developers are under pressure to offer discounts. Some developers have even been warned against excessive price reductions to boost sales. Such promotions complicate matters for existing homeowners, causing uncertainty in both the new and second-hand housing markets.
Another agent, “Mingyue,” noted that this year marked the worst decline in property prices in a decade. The total transaction volume during the recent extended holiday period was the lowest in over a decade, with fewer than a thousand transactions over the holiday period, equivalent to less than a hundred properties per day. This paints an accurate picture of the current state of the property market.
He speculated that those with financial means now prefer spending their money on leisure activities rather than investing in property. People are reevaluating whether real estate is still a viable investment, with current buyers falling into the “essential” category, such as those relocating and using such funds for housing. He predicted a continued downward trend in property prices.
October is traditionally a peak consumption season for pork in mainland China, but domestic pork prices are facing unexpected downward pressure, both in futures and spot markets.
On October 13, the main contract for live pig futures, 2511, closed down by 2.88% at 11,125 yuan/ton, hitting a historic low and marking a 21% decline year-to-date, with over 40% from the previous high. Spot prices for pork have been steadily declining since the third quarter of this year, currently below 11 yuan/kg at 10.92 yuan/kg.
According to the First Financial Daily, the continuous decline in pork prices is attributed to the imbalance between supply and demand, high inventory levels of sows, weak consumer demand, and a surplus in supply. In the short term, there are no signs of improvement, indicating that pork prices are unlikely to rebound soon. Pig producers have had to increase sales volumes since September to offset low prices.
Economic blogger “Huahu on Real Estate” stated on October 13 that pork producers are currently operating at a loss. Pig farmers are struggling as prices continue to fall, drawing parallels to the plummeting property prices. Individuals across various industries in China are experiencing anxiety, with many facing unemployment and despair.
Following the recent extended holiday, mainland airlines have slashed ticket prices by over 80%. Interface News reported that in mid to late October, several flight routes departing from Shanghai introduced heavily discounted fares, with prices dropping by nearly 80% for routes to cities like Nanjing and Hefei.
“Huahu on Real Estate” believes that the deflation and decline in the Chinese economy will impact all sectors uniformly, with no industry escaping unscathed.
He stressed that the signals being released indicate that China is on the brink of economic recession, deflation, and a major depression. Economic hardships will affect all sectors, as there is no corner that will be spared. With government officials, businesses, including financial institutions, and households all feeling the strain, the situation is dire.
The real estate market in mainland China has seen continuous declines in recent years. “Huahu on Real Estate” emphasizes that while real estate plays a significant role in the economic downturn, it is just one part of the broader economic crisis facing different industries. The overall economic slump across sectors is more alarming than the plunging housing prices. Despite many Chinese residents feeling the effects of the economic downturn in 2025, the true magnitude of this recession has yet to unfold. The situation has not reached a point of genuine panic; it is when floods and famines strike that the real fear sets in.
With the Fourth Plenum of the Communist Party of China (CPC) approaching, economic issues have become a crucial factor influencing the political landscape in the country. To mitigate the crisis, the People’s Daily, the official CPC newspaper, has published a series of eight opinion articles under the pseudonym “Zhong Caiwen” since September 30th. These articles extol China’s economy under the guidance of “Xi Jinping Economic Thought.”
On October 7th, following the publication of the eight article series by “Zhong Caiwen,” the People’s Daily released an essay titled “Ahead of the Fourth Plenum, People’s Daily Published Eight Articles by Zhong Caiwen – What Message Is Being Conveyed?”
Political commentator Jiutianjian noted that the People’s Daily’s attempt to portray the dire state of China’s economy in a positive light is a misleading tactic. The frequency of economic discussions in the state media in recent years is unusual.
“Zhong Caiwen” is believed to be a phonetic abbreviation for “Central Finance and Economics Committee Articles.” Jiutianjian suggested that following directives from high-ranking officials, departments overseeing the economy rushed to counter negative sentiment and create a harmonious atmosphere ahead of the plenum. However, attempting to salvage a disastrous economic situation where investments, consumption, and exports have all plummeted is futile.