Former US Deputy National Security Advisor Matthew Pottinger stated on Tuesday (July 2nd) that the Chinese Communist authorities view the current standoff in the South China Sea with the Philippines as a “rehearsal” for invading Taiwan.
Speaking at a lecture at the conservative think tank Heritage Foundation in Washington, Pottinger emphasized the importance of Taiwan and called for the development of strong strategies to counter the looming threat from China.
Pottinger urged the United States to assist in supplying the Philippine Navy Marines stationed on the Second Thomas Shoal, also known as Ayungin Shoal, as a signal to Beijing that the US will militarily support its allies in the region.
He pointed out that in recent clashes between Chinese and Philippine vessels near the shoal, China did not face consequences for its actions.
“Why did Beijing fixate on this little island from the outset? It was mainly to denigrate the United States as a dress rehearsal for Taiwan,” he said. “They’re doing to Taiwan in miniature what they hope one day to do on a larger scale.”
Pottinger believes that China is trying to demonstrate its ability to block islands, causing Western countries to doubt America’s capability to assist both the Philippines and Taiwan simultaneously.
The sovereignty dispute between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea has been ongoing for several months, with a minor clash occurring last month between the Philippine Navy and the Chinese Coast Guard. The conflict resulted in several Filipinos being injured, with one sailor losing a finger.
In 1999, the Philippines deliberately beached the World War II-era landing craft BRP Sierra Madre on the Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands, also known as Ayungin Shoal by the Philippines and Ren’ai Reef by China, and stationed troops to protect its maritime rights.
Both China and the Philippines claim the shoal as part of their maritime territory.
The Mutual Defense Treaty between the US and the Philippines is one of five security agreements signed by the US in the Indo-Pacific region, along with Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and Australia.
Pottinger suggested that it may be necessary to consider invoking the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty for a tougher response to China in the Indo-Pacific region.
“I’m not saying that means we’re going to war. I’m saying we need to be clear-eyed… about what’s happening and start making Beijing pay a heavier price,” he said.
When asked about the possibility of a joint US-Philippines mission to supply Second Thomas Shoal, Pottinger said, “We need to be prepared. I hope that we’re prepared to do so.”
He likened providing supplies to the Philippine Navy Marines on the shoal and other islands to the “Berlin Airlift” operation during the Cold War to prevent cities from falling into Soviet hands.
Recently, more analysts have made similar statements. Earlier this week, Bloomberg columnist Karishma Vaswani noted that both the Philippines and Taiwan are part of the “first island chain,” friendly governments in the Pacific with close ties to the US. Many Philippine islands are less than 100 kilometers from Taiwan, emphasizing the intertwined fate between the two.
Vaswani reported that Philippine National Security Council Assistant Secretary Jonathan Malaya told her that Taiwan is China’s real priority, with the Philippines being secondary. Malaya stated that pressuring the Philippines is just part of China’s “standard intimidation and coercion tactics against other countries.”