The Chinese Communist Party’s exposure of providing tangible support to Russia in the war has led to facing sanctions from the United States. Chinese experts on the matter point out that symbolic punishments could make dictators see historical opportunities, thus weakening the influence of the West.
Former US Deputy National Security Advisor Matthew Pottinger published a sharp opinion article in The Wall Street Journal on April 30, stating that China has violated Biden’s red line on the Ukraine issue. Biden can enforce his red line through sanctions or other measures, or demonstrate the decline of US resolve through symbolic punishment.
During a call on March 18, 2022, between Biden and Xi Jinping, they made it clear the impact and consequences if China provides material support to Russia for its brutal attacks on Ukrainian cities and civilians.
Last week, during Secretary of State Blinken’s visit to China, it was explicitly stated that China is the “overwhelmingly largest supplier” of military industrial base to Russia, fundamentally altering the course of the war.
Pottinger believes that Biden’s next actions will have a significant impact on global security and stability. Beijing and its strategic partners will likely interpret the incomplete implementation as a green light to deepen their global chaotic actions. Xi Jinping sees this as a historical opportunity to weaken the West.
He cited the similarity with President Obama’s red line breach in Syria in 2013. When the dictator Bashar al-Assad ignored warnings and used chemical weapons on his people, the president abandoned military action. Six months later, Moscow launched an invasion of Crimea in 2014 – the beginning of the ten-year war in Ukraine.
“If decisive action is not taken against China now, it will pave the way for Russia’s victory in Ukraine,” he wrote.
Wang Wei, a political science professor at Edify University in the United States, stated during an interview with Dajiyuan that relations between China and the US continue to deteriorate, with confrontation and competition becoming the norm. The US is very dissatisfied with China’s double standards and the Secretary of State’s tough words can demonstrate the need for concrete actions from the US government, rather than just empty talk. Otherwise, if your opponent sees through you, it will be ineffective.
Wang believes that the outcome of Blinken’s visit to China is limited because the two sides have little overlap beyond stating their positions on certain established issues. The US is currently using diplomacies, and if China continues to provide material support to Russia, it may have a decisive impact on their relationship.
Pottinger believes that the Chinese leadership is very sensitive to substantial sanctions. He cited the example of the end of 2017 when the Trump administration quietly but firmly warned of sanctions against China’s major energy companies due to Beijing’s refusal to impose oil export restrictions on North Korea. China realized that this warning was real and unprecedentedly agreed to a UN Security Council resolution setting limits on exports.
When considering the potential costs of imposing sanctions on major Chinese banks and other key enterprises, the Biden administration also needs to weigh the consequences of inaction.
On the eve of Blinken’s visit to China, Reuters reported on May 1 that the United States had imposed hundreds of new sanctions on Russia for the war in Ukraine, aiming to prevent Moscow from evading Western measures, including through China.
The US Treasury imposed sanctions on nearly 200 targets, while the State Department designated over 80 targets, making it one of the widest actions against Chinese companies in Washington’s sanctions against Russia to date.
Prominent dissident Chen Guangcheng, in an interview with Dajiyuan, expressed that given the Communist Party’s untrustworthy rogue nature, measures should have been taken to sanction it long ago. These companies only act according to the party’s commands, and minor sanctions are merely scratching the surface, just a gesture. Looking at the bigger picture since World War II, the international order established and led by the US has been greatly challenged since 2008, precisely due to continuous provocations by dictators and the US’s continuous weakness.
He recalled that the starting point was the August 2008 Russian war with Georgia, and then the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014. The appeasement policy of the US in these instances sent a wrong signal, where dictators felt that the US was weakened and unwilling to take responsibility for the world. This illusion or the US’s misdirection allowed them to take advantage, leading to a series of subsequent events.
“The war in Ukraine is also caused by the problems left by Clinton at that time. When Ukraine abandoned its nuclear weapons, the security commitments made at that time included China. Now, instead of fulfilling the commitments made back then, they turned around and helped Russia in attacking Ukraine, and on this basis, the US can completely turn against them.”
Chen believes that historically, even in China, when Cao Cao wanted to attack Dong Wu, there were military officials advocating for war while civil officials wanted surrender, but ultimately it was a few people who turned the tide. The US is not lacking talents like Pottinger, and since 2020, the US government’s stance against the CCP has been very clear.
“Pompeo, in a speech at the Nixon Library, said, ‘The free world has overthrown tyranny in the past, and today we can too.’ The meaning is, we once dismantled the Soviet Union, and as long as we continue to strive, like dismantling the Soviet Union and breaking down the Berlin Wall, we can also dismantle the totalitarian regime of the Chinese Communist Party.
“And due to the criminal acts of the Communist Party consulates, the Consulate-General in Houston was directly shut down, showing a very clear stance. From a diplomatic perspective, it’s only a matter of time before diplomatic relations are severed and ambassadors are recalled. But this situation couldn’t continue.”
He revealed that after Trump’s presidency, State Department officials called him, indicating that “we have done all the activities that could anger people, just following through, as long as the Biden administration continues along this path, avoiding backtracking can solve the problem.”
Regarding the constant predictions of Xi Jinping planning to militarily attack Taiwan, Chen believes that former President Washington had already made it clear: preparing for war is one of the most effective ways to maintain peace. If the enemy sees that starting a war poses a huge risk, close to suicide, then the war will not happen; if they see an opportunity, they can act for profit – it’s as simple as that.