With the unveiling of the political landscape after the 2024 European Parliament elections, experts analyze that regardless of which party is in power, the relationship between the European Union and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) can only continue along the trajectory of “deterioration”.
After the voting for the European Parliament election concluded on June 9, based on the results calculated on June 14, there was an increase in support for right-wing parties in France, Germany, and Italy, while left-wing parties saw growth in Ireland and Finland.
The current President of the European Commission, representing the center-right “European People’s Party” (EPP), Ursula von der Leyen’s party remains the largest with 190 seats out of 720 total members, holding a quarter of the parliament seats. The center-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) secure the second position with a total of 136 seats. The two most right-wing groups in the European Parliament – the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) with 76 seats and Identity and Democracy (ID) with 58 seats, could become the third-largest force in the EU if they form an alliance.
The new parliamentary session is set to officially convene for the first time in early July 2024.
Director of the Robert Schuman Center at the European University, Eric Jones, stated, “I believe this election has minimal, if any, impact on the direction of EU-China relations, as that trend has long been established – heading towards further deterioration.”
Jones explained that the degradation of EU-China relations hinges on three aspects: tension between the US and China, both being major economic partners of the EU; the close ties between China and Russia disrupting European security; and the relationship itself evolving from mutual dependency to strategic competition, with the strategic competition only just beginning.
Regarding the tariffs imposed by the EU on Chinese electric vehicles and Beijing initiating anti-dumping investigations on EU pork, Jones pointed out, “China (CCP) is utilizing all means to soften the EU’s stance, which is part of its strategic competition. For instance, China’s anti-dumping investigation on EU pork exports is the latest example.”
He noted that EU countries stand united on trade issues, and any confrontations between China and individual EU countries only intensify overall tensions between the two sides.
Jones predicted that the dynamics of this tense relationship would only escalate in the coming months and years, rather than diminish.
The relationships between right-wing parties in European countries and China are complex, with differing attitudes and actions towards the CCP.
For example, while Germany’s Choice party leader’s assistant was embroiled in a spy scandal, Hungary’s Viktor Orban maintains close ties with China, some countries like Italy have withdrawn from initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative. Tanja Börzel, a political science professor at the Otto Suhr Institute of Political Science at the Free University of Berlin and director of the Center for European Integration, stated, “From my research, the coherence of European parties, particularly right-wing and far-right parties, in their stance towards China, is low. This depends on parties and countries, for example, the German Conservative Party is more pro-China due to economic interests, while other conservative parties in member states are not.”
Börzel emphasized that it is difficult to predict how the newly composed European Parliament would affect EU-China relations, indicating the crucial role of the Commission President.
She believed that Ursula von der Leyen is likely to continue as the next President of the Commission, ensuring some continuity in EU policy towards China. Börzel stated, “Her advocacy for tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles indicates a willingness to compromise with harder-line member states towards China (CCP). I don’t think the EU-China relationship will become smoother; it has always been complex, and I don’t see that fundamentally changing.”
Börzel explained that Von der Leyen’s stance towards China is about managing risks rather than disengagement, navigating a thin line. Therefore, issues of fair competition and subsidies may become more critical in EU-China relations.
Professor Jones mentioned that the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine is currently the EU’s most pressing concern, leading to debates in the parliament about China’s support for Russia against Ukraine and China’s exports to Europe, especially regarding green industries like solar panels, electric cars, and batteries.
Börzel pointed out that China’s recent actions have caused some countries to shift from friendliness to caution towards the CCP, citing Italy’s changed stance and withdrawal from the Belt and Road Initiative.
She highlighted that as the economic issues of the BRI surface and China fails to deliver on its promises of unconditional and mutually beneficial engagements, the economic benefits reaped by China often outweigh those for the host countries, affecting the stances of EU BRI member countries towards China.
Börzel noted that China has entirely lost influence over the Baltic states in Europe, though some European countries like Hungary aim to balance relations with both China and the EU. Therefore, each country’s attitude towards China is complex, primarily driven by economic and geopolitical factors.
According to Börzel, the US election will influence the direction of EU-China relations, stating that “the elephant in the room is the United States. Biden has continued many aspects of Trump’s China policy, despite disagreements on many other issues, their stance towards China remains consistent.”
She believed that during Biden’s tenure, Europe needs America’s assistance in countering Russia and calming conflicts in the Middle East, leading to a necessity to align with US policies towards China in exchange for support in Ukraine and the Middle East.
If the new US administration shifts policies towards Russia and the Middle East, Europeans may have to rely more on themselves and less on the transatlantic relationship.
Börzel analyzed that Europe has been trying to balance political, economic, and geopolitical issues regarding China; on one hand, not wanting to detach from China entirely, and on the other, seeking to reduce reliance and diversify economic relationships. She emphasized that EU-China relations depend not only on the new Commission President and the composition of the European Parliament but also on the results of the US election in November.
Professor Jones concluded by stating that regardless of who controls the White House, the fundamental structure of EU-China relations will continue on its current trajectory towards more strategic competition and risk management. The world is moving towards deglobalization, even though that trend has not yet manifested in trade and investment data, and he predicted that this situation was unlikely to change.