As the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches, the Chinese liquor market is expected to enter the traditional peak consumption season. However, this year’s peak season seems to be lackluster, with a rare occurrence of falling prices for the famed Maotai Baijiu, a leading indicator in the industry, having prices near 2600 yuan per box.
On September 5th, the latest wholesale reference prices disclosed by “Today’s Liquor Prices” showed that the 2024 Maotai Baijiu box price was quoted at 2610 yuan per bottle, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day. The bulk price for the same year’s Maotai Baijiu remained steady at 2365 yuan per bottle.
It is worth noting that the prices of Maotai zodiac series liquors, which cater to high-end collectors and investors, have also seen a continuous decline. The pricing from September 4th indicated that the wholesale price for the Dragon zodiac series was at 2700 yuan per bottle, falling within the same price range as Maotai Baijiu.
According to the mainland media “New Yellow River,” the performance of the liquor consumption market during the Mid-Autumn Festival season is not as robust as in previous years. In the past month, the wholesale prices of Maotai Baijiu have been consistently falling more than rising, with the box price on September 5th inching closer to the 2600 yuan mark.
Not only Maotai Baijiu, but since entering August, with the traditional peak sales season of “Golden September, Silver October” approaching, the market prices of renowned liquors represented by various major products under Maotai have not followed the usual trend of price hikes and surging demand. Instead, channel prices have been fluctuating recently, and the market demand has not shown a clear recovery.
A distributor mentioned that market prices for mid-range products like the Prince series, Guizhou Daqu, to higher-end products like Hanjiang, and Maotai 1935, are continuously declining. “Maotai 1935 has further dropped below 780 yuan. It can be said that this year’s Mid-Autumn Festival market for premium liquors is one of the coldest in nearly a decade.”
The report stated that the collective decision of premium liquors to lower prices during the peak season is due to the pressure of high inventory and helplessness. Throughout this year, liquor enterprises have been trying to reduce inventory through promotions and strengthening channels, but the issues of overcapacity and supply-demand imbalance are still evident.
Several analysts in the Baijiu industry believe that the current problem in the entire Baijiu industry lies in insufficient social purchasing power. As the supply of premium liquors continues to increase, their scarcity will decrease. If demand growth lags behind, price pressures will further escalate.