Finland’s President recently stated that Russia heavily relies on China, and a single phone call from Chinese leader Xi Jinping could end the Russia-Ukraine war. Experts believe that China needs to sustain this war as a way to counterbalance the United States. During the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, Xi Jinping once again emphasized the need to strengthen strategic cooperation between China and Russia.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China has utilized various ways to support Russia, leading to a sharp increase in their bilateral trade volume. The latest foreign trade data from China indicates continued support for Russia.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb mentioned in a media interview on July 2 that Russia now heavily relies on China, and a call from Xi Jinping could help resolve the crisis.
Stubb stated that if Xi Jinping were to say, “It’s time to start peace talks,” Russia would be forced to do so as they have no other choice. He believes that ending this war would be advantageous for China.
Stubb’s viewpoint has garnered international media attention, sparking discussions on Xi Jinping’s influence over Russian President Putin and whether he can persuade Putin to stop the war.
Two military experts from Taiwan stated that while Xi Jinping seems to have influence over Putin, Xi does not have a reason to pressure him to end the war. Instead, Xi may hope to alleviate pressure from the West by assisting Russia in countering the United States and other Western countries.
In response to these discussions, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated on July 3 that both China and Russia are independent major powers and that China is neither the cause of the Ukraine crisis nor directly involved. This statement was seen by international opinion as China rejecting Stubb’s suggestion to intervene in the war.
Taiwanese military expert Li Zhengxiu mentioned that from China’s perspective, continuing the war serves its interests in restraining the US and Europe. Xi Jinping would not urge Putin to stop the war as it would lead to the US redirecting its focus to the Indo-Pacific region, posing a threat to China.
During the SCO summit on July 3, Xi Jinping and Putin held a meeting in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, where Xi referred to Putin as an “old friend” and emphasized the need for continued strategic cooperation between China and Russia to address evolving international situations and unite the global south, opposing “illegal unilateral sanctions and hegemonism.” Putin stated that the comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation between Russia and China are at their “best historical level.”
Li Zhengxiu further explained that the initial goal of establishing the Shanghai Cooperation Organization by China was to counter international organizations led by Western countries like the G7 and NATO and expand influence over third-world countries by forging alliances with Russia.
Former Deputy Commander of the Taiwanese Air Force and current adjunct professor at the National Defense University’s Department of Political Warfare, Zhang Yanting, noted that the Finnish President’s statement reflects China’s significant influence over Russia.
In the days preceding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Xi Jinping and Putin announced an “unlimited” partnership. Since the invasion, their cooperation has deepened continuously, with Putin claiming during his first visit to China in his fifth presidential term that the relationship between the two countries has reached a “historical high level.”
A report released by US intelligence agencies in April revealed a substantial increase in Chinese exports of machine tools, microelectronics, and other technologies to Russia, which Russia used to produce missiles, tanks, aircraft, and other weapons for the war in Ukraine.
Chinese exports to Russia for military purposes include excavators, drones, tanks, fighter jet components, heavy trucks, tractors, chips, integrated circuits, and more.
China also provides Russia with military-use technologies like geo-spatial intelligence, 5G technology for fast data transmission and processing for surveillance, reconnaissance, navigation, missile defense, weather forecasting, environmental monitoring, and satellite technology cooperation.
Zhang Yanting mentioned that Putin’s first overseas visit after being re-elected for the fifth time was to China, signifying the significance of their relationship. Through providing components for drones and dual-use products, China discreetly aids Russia in sustaining its aggressive war in Ukraine.
On July 2, former US Deputy National Security Advisor Matthew Pottinger suggested in a speech at the Traditional Foundation in Washington, DC, that the US should increase defense spending and strengthen multilateral cooperation with Taiwan, Japan, and Australia to counter China’s aggression, as China is the central hub of authoritarianism globally.
Trade data between China and Russia further confirms China’s robust support for Russia. In 2023, China accounted for approximately 28% of Russia’s total trade volume, up from 19% in 2021, with the EU’s share dropping from 36% to 17% during the same period.
Chinese customs data released on June 18 reported that China’s total trade volume with Russia in May was $19.81 billion, reaching $96.51 billion from January to May. While China’s exports to Russia decreased by 1.8%, imports from Russia increased by 6.9%, indicating continued growth in support for Russia.
Li Zhengxiu mentioned that without continued trade between Beijing and Moscow, the war would likely not be sustainable.
Chinese customs data revealed that following Russia’s aggression, trade between China and Russia grew rapidly by 22.4% in 2022 and further increased by 26.3% in 2023, reaching $240.11 billion. This significant boost in trade made Russia the fastest-growing trade partner of China.
In 2012, Russia’s trade with China only accounted for 9% of its total foreign trade.
During his visit to China in May, Putin’s first in his new term, Chinese media highlighted the potential for a period of high-quality growth in Sino-Russian trade.
Chinese National Committee member Zhou Chunling stated that the Ministry of Commerce will continue to promote higher-quality bilateral trade between China and Russia, deepening trade and investment cooperation. The Director of the European and Asian Affairs Division of the Ministry of Commerce also mentioned that trade between China and Russia demonstrated a trend of mutual growth.
China’s support extends to importing significant amounts of oil and natural gas from Russia. In 2023, China imported over 100 million tons of crude oil from Russia, a 24% increase year-on-year, representing about one-fifth of China’s total oil imports, making Russia China’s largest crude oil supplier. China also imported 8.05 million tons of natural gas from Russia in the same year, a 23% increase compared to the previous year.