With only five days left until the US election, the latest round of polls from the key battleground state of Pennsylvania shows that former President Trump’s support rate is higher than Vice President Harris, still within the margin of error.
Both candidates are making their final campaign pushes, with both appearing in Nevada on Thursday (October 31) in hopes of winning over more swing voters before election day.
In 2024, there are seven recognized swing states, with Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes being considered crucial in winning the White House. In 48 out of 59 past elections, the candidate who won Pennsylvania ultimately became the president.
Pennsylvania has voted for the Democratic Party seven out of eight times in the last eight elections (since the 1992 election). The only exception was in 2016 when they voted for the Republican candidate, Trump.
Several recent polls show that Trump’s lead is within the margin of error, making it a neck-and-neck race between Harris and Trump in Pennsylvania. As the election approaches, Harris’s previous lead has been gradually diminishing, with Trump’s upward trajectory surpassing Harris’s after October.
ABC News project 538 indicates that Harris is leading by 1.4% in national polls, but Trump is leading by 0.4% in Pennsylvania polls. According to their polling trends, Trump has pulled ahead of Harris by 0.4% in the past two weeks, with the organization predicting his victory in Pennsylvania.
270toWin shows Harris leading by 1.0% in national polls, but Trump leading by 0.6% in Pennsylvania polls.
RealClearPolling’s polls show an even split between the two party candidates, with Trump leading by 0.4% in national polls and 0.7% in Pennsylvania over Harris.
The presidential betting odds on the cryptocurrency trading platform Polymarket indicate a 66.1% chance of Trump winning and a 33.8% chance for Harris to win nationally. Trump’s chances of winning Pennsylvania are 63%, while Harris’s are at 38%.
A poll commissioned by CNN conducted by SSRS finds that the two candidates are evenly matched in Pennsylvania.
A new poll from Quinnipiac University shows Trump leading Harris by 2 percentage points in a head-to-head matchup and 1 percentage point when third-party candidates are included.
Monmouth University’s concurrent poll shows Trump leading Harris by 1 percentage point among likely voters, with 47% to 46%.
The election on November 5 is expected to be one of the closest in decades, with Harris still having hope to win Pennsylvania. In recent days, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe at Trump’s rally described Puerto Rico as a “floating garbage island,” sparking controversy regarding Latinx immigrants. This has led to criticism of Trump and his campaign team, as Puerto Ricans make up 3.7% of Pennsylvania’s total population.
Subsequently, President Biden, in a video call with supporters, referred to Trump supporters as “trash,” instantly becoming a campaign focus. Harris has been busy defending Biden and trying to distance herself from the remarks.
She said, “I strongly oppose any criticisms of people based on how they vote.”
Early voting data from Pennsylvania shows more Democrats voting in the state than Republicans. However, this indicates party registration of voters rather than who they are voting for.