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Today’s focus: Did Ukrainian F-16s shoot down a Russian Su-57 fighter jet?! Thousands of North Korean troops are already on the Russian-Ukrainian front line; “Yom Kippur War” nightmare, 3 tanks vs. over a hundred T-55 tanks; Israeli army beheads Hezbollah leader again, Chinese engineering troops help build tunnels in Gaza; drones attack Russian homeland again, Ukraine unveils new type of combat drone.
After Iran’s large-scale missile attack on Israel, the whole world is watching to see how retaliatory Israel will be, although on October 10, the Israeli cabinet confirmed a strategic plan to strike Iran, the Israeli people are likely to wait until after the most important Jewish holiday before taking action. By now, the Iranian regime must be feeling uneasy.
From October 11th at sunset to the 12th at night is Israel’s “Yom Kippur,” considered the most solemn and sacred day of the year for Jewish people. For devout Jews, it is a day of fasting from sunrise to sunset, refraining from eating, drinking, smoking, with most Israeli soldiers staying in military camps for prayer. Let’s take a look at this year’s “Yom Kippur” prayers at the Western Wall in Jerusalem.
The Iranian regime is not afraid of the “Yom Kippur” holiday itself, but rather the traumatic impact left by the “Yom Kippur War” that shook the Middle East in the past.
On October 6, 1973, the “Yom Kippur” and the Fourth Middle East War, also known as the “Yom Kippur War,” broke out, with Arab countries taking advantage of Israel’s observance of Yom Kippur to launch a large-scale attack. The war was one of the closest moments in Israel’s history to being wiped out. The major participants were Egypt, Syria, and Iraq on the Arab side, with the Soviet Union backing them, totaling 570,000 regular troops, over 4,000 tanks, and approximately 1,000 combat aircraft. The main combatants were Egypt, Syria, and Iraq against only Israel, supported by the United States. Israel had over 115,000 regular troops and over 200,000 reserve soldiers, deploying about 1,700 tanks and roughly 500 combat aircraft.
As we can see from the military strength, the Arab side significantly outnumbered the Israeli forces both in troops and weapons. Geographically, Israel was surrounded and at a disadvantage in terms of timing, location, and resources.
The battle only lasted for 20 days, starting on October 6 and ending on the 26th. Despite initial Arab advantages, once Israel had recovered from their fasting, the tide of the war turned.
One of the most famous battles of the “Yom Kippur War” was the “Valley of Tears Battle,” where Israeli forces used three Centurion MK5 tanks to stop hundreds of Soviet-made T-55 tanks in a fierce battle. For those interested, I recommend watching a TV series called “Valley of Tears” to understand why and how Israel won in the “Yom Kippur War” and other Middle East wars.
Turning back to Israel’s retaliation at the time, the IDF’s strategy was to first confront the Syrian forces in the northeast, concentrating 15 brigades and 1,000 tanks in the north, quickly driving the Syrian forces out of the Golan Heights. Following this, the IDF turned towards the Sinai Peninsula in the southwest, using 12 brigades from 3 divisions to attack the Egyptian forces starting on the 16th. By the 23rd, the IDF not only defeated the Egyptian army but also completely surrounded the Egyptian 3rd Army Corps. Recognizing their defeat, Egypt and Syria announced ceasefire on the 24th. The final result of the war was a major victory for Israel, with about 8,500 Arab coalition casualties compared to around 2,800 IDF casualties.
Instead of gaining an advantage, the Arab coalition lost more territory to Israel; Israel even pushed its forces closer to Cairo, the Egyptian capital. Had the war continued, Egypt could have faced potential annihilation. Since then, the “Yom Kippur War” has become a lasting scar in the hearts of Arab countries in the Middle East.
Given this history, it’s clear how the Iranian regime feels during Israel’s “Yom Kippur.” Interestingly, on October 11th before “Yom Kippur,” Iranian President Pezheshkiyan met with Putin seeking support. However, Russia was preoccupied on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, making it difficult to assist Iran. Meanwhile, Israel continued to target Hezbollah in Lebanon, both on the ground and in the air. At this critical moment, Hezbollah began to show signs of willingness to negotiate a ceasefire with Israel following Israeli strikes on their leadership.
Furthermore, recent reports revealed that China has been sending organized engineering troops under the guise of “supporting construction” to Gaza for many years, helping Hamas build extensive underground tunnels and defensive works. Israeli media even went as far as to suggest that the relationship between Israel and China is like that of a farmer and a snake.
Ukrainian President Zelensky has been extremely busy recently, visiting key European countries such as the UK, France, Italy, and Germany, securing significant weapons support. Zelensky has touted these visits as achieving “major results,” particularly in terms of acquiring anti-aircraft weapons systems and assistance in producing unmanned aerial vehicles for the Ukrainian military.
Meanwhile, an important development on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield occurred on October 11th: Ukrainian F-16s shot down Russia’s advanced Su-57 fighter jet for the first time. While this event has not been officially confirmed by Russian or Ukrainian authorities, if true, it would significantly reduce the number of Russia’s top-tier Su-57 aircraft. The downing of the Su-57 represents a remarkable achievement for Ukraine, potentially marking the first time in history that a fifth-generation fighter aircraft has been shot down in combat.
As mentioned in a previous episode, South Korean government officials indicated that sending North Korean troops to the Russian-Ukrainian front line was likely true. Now, the latest report from the mainstream US media outlet “The Washington Post” reveals that several thousand North Korean soldiers have indeed been deployed to the Ukrainian front line. It’s reported that these troops are receiving pre-battle training from Russian forces and will be ready for combat by the end of this year.
Ukrainian Commander Silsky recently stated that Russia had withdrawn around 50,000 troops from the Ukrainian front line to reinforce the Russian-occupied Kursk region. This significantly weakened Russian offensives in Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Kramatorsk. Additionally, a deputy leader of the Ukrainian OSCE delegation on October 12th disclosed that Russian forces had adopted a desperate “human wave” tactic, resulting in a high casualty rate – for every 2.5 square meters occupied, they lose a soldier. Furthermore, any territory taken by Russian forces is quickly reclaimed by well-supplied Ukrainian forces. This attrition warfare shows why Russia is turning to North Korean troops to bolster the front lines.
Ukraine’s drone attacks remain a key weapon in striking at Russian mainland. On October 11th, Ukraine’s General Intelligence Agency released footage of its domestically-built combat drone, Bober, launching an attack on a military airfield in the Adygea Republic in southwestern Russia. While Russian channels confirmed the drone attack, they claimed that all Ukrainian drones were shot down. Moreover, they announced the evacuation of nearby villages, indirectly admitting the extensive damage and lasting consequences of the Ukrainian drone assault.
In a new development, Ukraine unveiled a new weapon called the Stick M12, a specialized attack drone capable of flying for over an hour and covering a distance of 70 kilometers, designed to destroy Russian front-line defenses and armored vehicles. Increased use of these drones will significantly bolster Ukraine’s attacking capabilities on the Russian-Ukrainian front line.
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