Taiwanese weather experts have indicated that there is a high probability of Typhoon Ginkgo turning westward. From the 8th to the 11th of this month, moisture on the eastern side of Taiwan will gradually increase due to Typhoon Ginkgo, resulting in localized heavy rainfall in the northern coast, Greater Taipei area, and northeastern parts.
According to the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan, as of 8:00 am on the 4th and 5th, the center of Typhoon Ginkgo was located at 16.0 degrees north latitude and 127.6 degrees east longitude, moving northwest at a speed of 26 kilometers per hour. The central pressure was 970 hPa, with a maximum wind speed near the center of 33 meters per second and gusts of up to 43 meters per second. The radius of gale-force winds extended up to 150 kilometers on the northwest side, 180 kilometers on the northeast side, 120 kilometers on the southwest side, and 120 kilometers on the southeast side, with the radius of storm-force winds reaching 50 kilometers on all sides.
Associate Professor Wu Derong from the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at National Central University of Taiwan mentioned on a weather program that as of 2:00 am on the 5th, the latest official path forecast maps from various countries show that Typhoon Ginkgo will move northwestwards in the next two days, approaching the southeastern sea area of Taiwan. By the 4th and 5th days, it will slightly accelerate, passing near the northern end of Luzon and entering the South China Sea.
Wu Derong further explained that the latest simulation of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on the evening of the 4th suggests that most individual paths of Typhoon Ginkgo are turning westwards, crossing either the Bashi Channel or the northern part of Luzon before entering the South China Sea. Only a very small number of individual simulation paths still indicate a northeastward turn. He emphasized the uncertainty that exists, although the ensemble mean path suggests passing near the northern waters of Luzon into the South China Sea. The probability of a direct impact on Taiwan remains low, and the intensity of any associated effects will need further observation.
Today, under the influence of the northeasterly monsoon, areas north of Taoyuan may experience brief periods of rain, while sunny and stable weather is expected in areas south of Hsinchu. Northern Taiwan will witness a slight drop in temperatures and become slightly cool and moist, while central and southern regions will be warm during the day and cooler in the early morning and evening. On the 6th and 7th, the northeasterly monsoon will become drier, leading to cloudy skies with a chance of sporadic light rain in the northern coast, northeastern areas, and eastern regions. The leeward side will experience sunny and stable weather. Temperatures will slightly rise in various regions.
Between the 8th and 11th of the month, moisture on the eastern side of Taiwan will gradually increase due to Typhoon Ginkgo, resulting in localized rainfall in the northern region and eastern areas. While the current simulation does not indicate a strong “companion effect,” there is still a threat of localized heavy rainfall in the northern coast, Greater Taipei area, and northeastern parts. Weather models need to be continuously monitored for any adjustments, while areas south of Hsinchu will continue to enjoy sunny and stable conditions. Temperatures across different regions will see a slight increase.