In a recent analysis of US foreign policy, experts have pointed out that despite a gradual decline in birth rates in the United States in recent years, the country still holds a significant population advantage compared to China and Russia, which is a crucial factor in the competition among major powers.
According to foreign policy expert Brent Peabody, the United States may be going through a demographic transition phase, while China and Russia are experiencing turmoil in their population structures.
Peabody noted in an article published in “Foreign Policy” magazine on Monday that China’s birth rate has dropped rapidly in less than a decade from 1.81 births per woman to 1.08, making it one of the countries with the lowest birth rates in the world.
He pointed out that China’s authorities expect the fertility rate to slightly increase, with projections indicating it may surpass 1.3 by 2035, but this number is still likely to pose a demographic disaster for the world’s second most populous nation.
Population experts generally agree that a fertility rate of 2.1 is needed to maintain population stability without immigration. A decline in fertility rates could lead to shrinking tax bases, reduced labor force, increased burden on pension systems, and pressure on spending for education and infrastructure.
In recent years, the overall fertility rate in the United States has also been gradually decreasing, from a robust level of 2.12 births per woman on average in 2007 to less than 1.7 births currently.
However, demographic and social trends indicate that China’s fertility rate issue is much more severe than that of the United States and may further decline.
Peabody noted that after decades of the “one-child policy” in China, the number of citizens able to have children has significantly decreased.
“With 216 million Chinese over 50 years old and only 181 million in their 20s, the number of potential parents has decreased significantly, almost guaranteeing a decline in China’s population,” Peabody wrote.
Furthermore, the prevailing cultural bias favoring males over females, along with widespread gender-selective abortions, has resulted in a severe gender imbalance in China.
“Men in their 20s outnumber women in the same age group by 11.7 million in China,” Peabody stated, “In short, decades of the one-child policy have created a shortage of young people and notably a shortage of young women, leading to a continued decline in China’s population in the foreseeable future.”
Peabody pointed out that the decades-long one-child policy has also altered family values among the Chinese population.
“Chinese people, especially the generation raised without siblings, have developed a deep-rooted cultural preference for small families,” he wrote, “Surveyed Chinese women have indicated that their ideal family size averages only 1.7 children, much lower than elsewhere in the world.”
Meanwhile, high housing costs in Chinese metropolises and the rising trend of “lying flat” among young people have contributed to significantly smaller family sizes in urban areas compared to rural ones.
Peabody emphasized that China still has substantial room for urbanization, with fewer than two-thirds of its population residing in cities. However, as more rural Chinese move to cities, increasing the birth rate will become increasingly challenging.
While China’s population is rapidly shrinking, Russia is also poised for a sharp decline in population.
Similar to China, Russia is facing a lower population of the upcoming generation due to political turmoil following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the 1990s. This is expected to lead to a decrease in birth rates as the number of potential parents diminishes.
Moreover, Russia’s involvement in the Ukraine conflict has exacerbated its population issues.
Peabody analyzed that the invasion of Ukraine has put Russia into a vicious cycle of population decline through three main factors.
The first factor is the casualties of war itself, with an estimated 50,000 Russian soldiers reported dead in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a loss that Russia struggles to bear.
Secondly, the influx of migrants caused by the invasion and mobilization, with approximately 1 million Russians fleeing the country, many of whom are of childbearing age.
“However, the most significant factor is military spending,” Peabody stated, noting that the current military expenditure accounts for a record 6% of Russia’s GDP. This has squeezed budgets for education, healthcare, and other policies conducive to family building.
He believes that when considering these three points collectively, this marks the beginning of a long-term population decline in Russia.
Peabody also analyzed that although the United States has entered an era of low birth rates, the country’s devout religious beliefs and strong evangelical traditions have contributed to a more gradual decline.
Additionally, the United States remains a top destination for global immigrants, driving continued population growth.
Peabody noted that political and economic freedoms have made the US an attractive place for people to move to and raise children. The country’s top-tier universities and tech companies continue to attract the most talented and intelligent individuals worldwide, while high wages and labor shortages further encourage a growing number of immigrants to come to the US.