The first wave of the recall election in Taiwan ended on Saturday (July 26th), with all 24 Kuomintang (KMT) legislators and the recall case of Hsinchu City Mayor Ko Hung-an being rejected. Both the blue and white camps hailed it as a great victory for the people of Taiwan. Premier Lai Ching-te expressed his gratitude to the civic forces and looked forward to both ruling and opposition parties working together for unity and progress.
Experts believe that the KMT’s organizational mobilization was very successful this time, with the KMT’s base turning out in force. However, it is also clear that the pre-election advantages of the blue camp had a significant impact on many swing voters. Following the recall, expectations are high for the possibility of reconciliation and cooperation between the two major parties.
Regarding the failure of the first wave of the recall vote on 7/26, the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) pointed out that pro-China politicians survived the vote to oust them from office. The BBC highlighted how the KMT and the People’s Party joined forces in the legislature, not only blocking DPP bills but also passing controversial legislation that made the Taiwanese people angry.
The scale of this recall movement in Taiwan is said to be unprecedented in its history. Former President of the National Defense University’s Political Warfare Academy Yu Chung-chi told Epoch Times that the voter turnout exceeded 55%, much higher than the projected 45% by the recall organizers. This indicates that the KMT’s organizational strategy was very successful, mobilizing its base effectively.
Yu Chung-chi pointed out that compared to the citizen groups behind this recall, the targeting was too broad, making it difficult to concentrate force and creating a high sense of crisis for the opponents. Combined with the fact that the recall mainly targeted blue camp constituencies, the fundamental structure favored the blue over the green. For these young political novices from grassroots organizations, it was undoubtedly a “tough battle” as they had never fought elections before and were not adept at organizing mobilization.
Yanina Welp, a researcher on recall systems at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva, recently told American media that no parliament worldwide has faced such a large-scale recall action as Taiwan has. Taiwan is also one of the few democracies allowing voters to recall elected representatives through petition, with past recall cases being smaller in scale and rare in success.
In an unexpected turn, none of the blue camp legislators were recalled in this citizen-initiated recall movement in Taiwan. Yu Chung-chi believes that the failure was also due to swing voters not being mobilized to vote, with the main reasons being the blue camp offering two pre-election incentives: distributing 10,000 NT dollars in cash and adding 5 more national holidays. This policy-driven vote-buying had a significant impact on swing voters.
Kawaii Ogasawara, an honorary professor at Tsinghua University and Japanese scholar, said in an interview with the Japanese newspaper “Sankei Shimbun” that in this recall movement in Taiwan, both supporters and opponents of the Tsai government had very clear positions. While the recall proponents were enthusiastic, many voters still harbored doubts about overturning legislators who were just elected in 2024. The KMT successfully tapped into these swing voters, leading to a large number of “disagree votes” and ultimately reversing the outcome.
Taiwan’s at-large legislative candidate Wei-chu Shi commented that throughout the election process, the KMT continuously used the “war and peace choice” to intimidate the Taiwanese people.
Yu Chung-chi emphasized that the increased tension in cross-strait military confrontations by the Chinese Communist Party during this period could not be ignored. The characteristic of swing voters is a desire to maintain the status quo and avoid war. The CCP’s intensification of military aircraft approaching Taiwan, playing the “fear card” of war, also had a certain effect.
Furthermore, Yu Chung-chi stressed that the extent of the CCP’s infiltration into Taiwan, including misinformation and cultural warfare penetration, far exceeds the understanding of the recall organizers and the general public. The intense barrage of false information and various organizational infiltrations by the CCP pose a serious challenge that the current DPP government must face squarely.
The Washington Post reported after the recall vote ended on the 26th that Taiwanese voters had rejected the proposal to replace KMT legislators, extinguishing the ruling party’s hopes of overturning legislative power.
However, according to the official announcement by the Central Election Commission, while the citizen-led recall cases were all unsuccessful, seven blue camp legislators had agree votes crossing the 25% threshold. However, due to fewer agree votes than disagree votes, the recalls failed.
Wang Zhisheng expressed that although all recalls failed this time, the KMT was also on edge as if they had shed a layer of skin after experiencing a major battle. He believed that these legislators were all well aware, including the KMT themselves, that over the past year, their radical policies led to the recall process, and they could no longer afford to go through such a life-and-death defense battle.
“Therefore, firstly, the KMT will have to converge to some extent, and secondly, there will be adjustments within the KMT.”
Wang Zhisheng believes that it appears inevitable for Taichung Mayor Lu Hsiu-yan to vie for the KMT chairmanship and then compete with the DPP for the presidential seat in 2028. Given Lu Hsiu-yan’s past performance and the need to seek the presidency, she will not pursue a radical confrontational path, which would not be advantageous for her. So, if Lu Hsiu-yan leads the KMT machinery in the future, the path will certainly be relatively moderate.
Wang Zhisheng stated that he is optimistic about the possibility of reconciliation and cooperation between the ruling and opposition parties or the two major parties. However, he also expressed concern because the KMT does not have a majority in the legislature and will need the support of the People’s Party to pass legislation. The People’s Party may extreme and hold the KMT hostage, putting the KMT in a dilemma once again.
“Next, we will see what stricter measures the next KMT chairman will take on the path.” Wang Zhisheng said.
After the conclusion of the 7/26 recall vote, President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan thanked the civic groups for their efforts in a post on that day, stating that the result was neither a victory for one side nor a failure for the other. Both the recall and anti-recall were legitimate rights of the people under the constitutional system. He thanked the power of the citizens, saying, “Your efforts were not in vain.”
The “Constitution of the Republic of China” stipulates that people have four political rights: elections, recalls, initiatives, and referendums.
Taiwan University Professor of Economics Fan Chia-chung told Epoch Times that the recall this time showcased the direct exercise of civic rights by the Taiwanese people, without the need to go through legislators or representatives to implement.
Fan Chia-chung noted that democratic systems are not perfect, with a critical flaw being the representative system, where civic rights must be executed through representatives. The question remains whether representatives can fully reflect public opinion. “So, the next advanced stage of the democratic system is the direct exercise of civic rights by the people, without relying entirely on representatives. This time, the Taiwanese people demonstrated that besides elections, they can also use initiatives, referendums, and recalls. I believe this will be a future trend, with initiative rights (proposing new laws) and referendum rights (deciding on controversial laws through public votes) likely to emerge soon.”
“In other words, Taiwan is moving towards an advanced version of democracy (Democracy 2.0),” Fan Chia-chung said.