Taiwanese meteorological experts announced today (April 24) that due to the influence of a lingering front, there will be localized showers or thunderstorms in the western and northeastern parts of the island. People should be cautious of the occurrence of small-scale “severe weather.”
Associate professor Wu Derong from the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at National Central University in Taiwan emphasized in a post on Sanlih Weather and Big Forecast website titled “Lingering Front Oscillating North and South: Beware of Severe Weather” that according to the latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model simulation at 8 p.m. on the 23rd, the lingering front’s impact will bring localized showers or thunderstorms to the western and northeastern parts of Taiwan. People should pay attention to the occurrence of small-scale “severe weather” such as lightning, strong winds, sudden heavy rain, hail, etc.
Wu pointed out that there is a probability of localized brief showers in eastern Taiwan, and temperatures are expected to slightly drop due to increased cloud cover and rainfall, particularly in northern Taiwan. Temperature ranges across different regions are as follows: 19 to 26 degrees Celsius in the north, 20 to 28 degrees Celsius in the central region, 22 to 32 degrees Celsius in the south, and 20 to 30 degrees Celsius in the east.
The latest model simulation indicates that from April 25 to 28, the lingering front will continue to oscillate north and south near Taiwan. Although the front structure is not solid, occasional strong southwest winds will bring warm and moist air into the region, forming an extremely unstable atmosphere prone to the development of “small to medium-scale convective systems” which often lead to localized “severe weather” events including lightning, strong winds, heavy rain, hail, etc. Precautions should be taken to mitigate potential disasters. After the front passes or dissipates, there may be intermittent breaks in the weather.
“On April 29, the lingering front will move northward, providing a longer break. From April 30 to May 2, the front will gradually shift southward near Taiwan and continue to oscillate north and south, maintaining a rainy pattern,” Wu added.
Wu further explained that theoretically, more than 2 days in advance, conventional “medium-term models” or “AI (Artificial Intelligence) models” are unable to accurately simulate the temporal and spatial variations of “small to medium-scale convective systems.” As a result, the commonly referenced “multi-day cumulative precipitation forecast maps” have a significant margin of error. To compensate for technological limitations, it is essential to utilize short-term models in conjunction with real-time forecasting. Therefore, it is crucial to pay close attention to the latest information during this period to make informed decisions and take necessary precautions.