France and Japan have recently released their national defense strategic assessments, with France identifying the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) as a “real strategic challenge” on a global scale, and Japan categorizing the CCP as the “biggest strategic challenge.” Experts believe that these assessments indicate that both countries have awakened to the threat posed by the CCP and are no longer appeasing it. They are responding to the call from the United States by unequivocally joining the global coalition against the CCP’s threats.
On Bastille Day, July 14, the French Ministry of Defense published the 2025 “National Strategic Review,” identifying Russia as the biggest threat to Europe and labeling the Chinese Communist regime as a “real strategic challenge” in expanding its influence globally.
The assessment report analyzed the CCP’s nuclear weapons expansion plans, its cyber and technology theft behaviors, its acknowledged long-term competition with the United States, its continuous military pressures and coercive stance toward Taiwan, its deployment of influence in French overseas territories, and its military cooperation with Russia.
The report pointed out that the CCP’s strategic ambition is to surpass the United States by 2050 and become the world’s top superpower.
French President Emmanuel Macron announced on July 13 at the Ministry of Defense that France would increase its military budget by €6.5 billion (approximately $7.6 billion) over the next two years to address serious security threats including nuclear threats.
On July 15, the Japanese Ministry of Defense submitted the 2025 Threat Assessment Report (also known as the “Defense White Paper”) to the Cabinet, positioning the CCP as Japan’s “biggest strategic challenge” and warning that the international community is facing a new era of crisis, confronting the biggest challenge since the end of World War II.
The White Paper mentioned that the CCP has intensified military activities around Japan, such as its first violation of Japanese airspace by a Chinese military aircraft in August last year; in September last year, a Chinese aircraft carrier and two warships sailed between two Japanese islands near Taiwan; and Chinese coast guard ships were present outside Japan’s territorial waters of the Senkaku Islands for 355 days last year.
The Senkaku Islands, known as the Diaoyu Islands in Taiwan and Diaoyu Dao in mainland China, are a focal point of the conflict between China and Japan. China claims sovereignty over the Diaoyu Islands.
The White Paper also cited joint military exercises between China and Russia, which “clearly aim to display military prowess to Japan.”
The White Paper assessment stated that the Chinese military’s activities are “creating a situation that could seriously impact Japanese security.”
Associate Professor Chen Shimin from the Department of Political Science at National Taiwan University expressed to Epoch Times that the over three-year-long Russia-Ukraine war has significantly shifted France’s position.
“The key reason Russia can continue fighting for more than three years until now is largely due to significant indirect support from China, enabling Russia to sustain its war efforts and maintain its military-industrial production,” said Chen Shimin.
According to reports, around 90% of the chips required for Russian-made weapons equipment come from China, and about 50% of component machine tools in Russia’s military industry also originate from China. China’s support for Russia has helped Russia withstand Western sanctions and quickly restore military production capabilities.
Chen Shimin stated, “The collusion between China and Russia naturally raises high alert among European countries, especially in France, as it makes France clearly realize that through its close alliance with Russia, China has posed a significant challenge to European security.”
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi expressed a “true opinion” on July 2 in Belgium, stating that China “hopes to not see Russia fail in Ukraine.”
Dr. Zhong Zhidong of the National Institute for Defense Studies in Taiwan commented that this public stance by China on the Russia-Ukraine war differs substantially from Europe’s position. In fact, Europe has long recognized China’s unwavering support for Russia, leading to increasingly negative developments in EU-China and France-China relations.
Zhong Zhidong told Epoch Times that French President Macron, who is often seen as having a “doubtful of the US and pro-China” image, previously opposed NATO’s involvement in the strategic confrontation between the US and China in Asia. However, during his speech on May 30 at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Macron drew a comparison between Taiwan and Ukraine.
At that time, Macron stated, “If we cannot constrain Russia’s actions in Ukraine today, what will happen to the situation in Taiwan in the future?”
Zhong Zhidong pointed out that Macron’s remarks spotlighted the “potential threat of Chinese expansionism to international security.”
He believes that France’s recent national defense strategic assessment, defining the CCP as a “real strategic challenge,” to a large extent echoes Macron’s discourse on the Chinese threat at the Shangri-La Dialogue.
Professor Yao Yuan from the International Studies Lecture at the University of Saint Thomas in the United States expressed to Epoch Times that most Europeans are more concerned about the Russian threat and may not see much issue with China. Therefore, France’s “National Strategic Review” serves to remind Europeans of the problems they have relatively neglected – in reality, the Chinese threat is “a problem that all democratic countries worldwide must face.”
Regarding Japan’s classification of the CCP as the “biggest strategic challenge,” Zhong Zhidong noted that this significantly reflects Japan’s awakening to the Chinese threat domestically, departing from its previous appeasement policy towards China.
Zhong Zhidong mentioned that Japan traditionally ranked North Korea, Russia, and China as the biggest security threats. However, Japan has now elevated the Chinese threat to the highest level.
He believes this reflects Japan’s alignment with the United States in viewing China as the biggest threat and actively cooperating with the US to counter the CCP. Nevertheless, because Japan lacks the capability to confront China alone, it needs to address the Chinese threat under the US-Japan security mechanism. Additionally, Japan is actively participating in the NATO framework and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) with the US, Australia, and India to “work together under the concept of collective security to counter the Chinese threat.”
Yao Yuan stated that although Japan has not completely decoupled economically from China, strategically it has always viewed China as a potential regional security disruptor. From the official information released by the Japanese Ministry of Defense, it is clear that Japan strategically aligns “closely with the United States in opposing China.”
Chen Shimin believes that Japan’s current security environment is the most severe since World War II. Over the past year or two, China’s provocations towards Japan have reached a level where Japan finds them “quite unacceptable,” including Chinese fighter jets entering Japanese airspace last year.
He said that in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war, China’s close support of Russia, coupled with joint Sino-Russian military exercises, has made Japan feel that it may have to simultaneously confront the collective threats of China, Russia, and North Korea, this so-called “axis of evil.” Furthermore, Japan is deeply concerned about Chinese military interference along its “national lifeline,” which stretches from Japan southward to the Senkaku Islands, the Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan, and the South China Sea.
Chen Shimin stated, “This presents a considerable challenge to Japan’s national survival, and under these circumstances, Japan perceives that China has already posed the biggest strategic threat to Japan.”