As the US presidential election on November 5 approaches, the race between Harris and Trump is neck and neck, with the impact of their potential victory on US-China relations, the trade war, technology battle, and the situation in the Taiwan Strait being of great concern. Beijing is also eager to know who will become the US president. Two senior Taiwanese experts provided predictions and analysis to Epoch Times.
Leading up to the US election, military activities by the Chinese Communist Party in Taiwan have been increasing. The Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense reported on Sunday (November 3) that 37 sorties of military aircraft were detected heading towards the Western Pacific, with 35 of them crossing the median line and its extension for training. This was the second consecutive day that Taiwan reported such activity.
In the 2024 US presidential election, Taiwan is not the main focus, but both candidates from the two major parties have a key foreign policy theme that focuses on dealing with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). While there is a general consensus in Washington on taking a tough stance against the CCP, Taiwanese officials are still on edge about the US election.
Wu Chih-chung, Deputy Minister of Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, recently expressed in an interview with The Hill that Taiwan is “very, very” concerned about this election.
Chen Shi-min, Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at National Taiwan University, stated in an interview with Epoch Times that it is generally believed that if Harris takes office, she is likely to continue Biden’s approach, delegating diplomatic affairs to the Democratic Party’s foreign policy elites. Judging from her past performance, sharing democratic and freedom values with Taiwan would compel her to not allow the CCP to forcibly annex Taiwan.
“I personally believe that Harris is a staunch advocate of democratic and freedom values. In September 2019, she co-sponsored a bill on Hong Kong’s democracy and human rights with Florida Senator Rubio from both parties. In 2020, Harris was also a lead sponsor representing the Democratic Party in the US Senate to propose the Uyghur Human Rights Policy Act. Therefore, she should unite democratic and freedom countries worldwide to let Xi Jinping know that if he dares to attack Taiwan with force, he will face the most severe economic sanctions ever, as what Russia is facing now.”
Chen Shi-min said that Taiwan has been seeking support from Western countries, which is important because of shared democratic and freedom values. Taiwan should not be allowed to be forcibly annexed by an authoritarian communist regime through military force, because if this door is opened, Xi Jinping’s ambition will not stop at Taiwan. This is a basic policy direction for both Harris and Trump, so if she takes office, it won’t be much different from the past three years.
As for Trump coming into power, Chen Shi-min believes there will be uncertainties. Trump will have many possible options, making it more complex. However, he remains optimistic, as starting from 2017, Trump has led the change in the US policy towards the CCP, making anti-Communism a consensus in the United States.
He believes that the discussion about US-China-Taiwan relations must consider a time point in 2027. Because Xi Jinping will be seeking his fourth term of office, which coincides with the next US president’s term.
He said, if Xi Jinping still fails to manage China’s economy in 2027, he may want to shift internal attention through military actions against Taiwan to strengthen his regime’s legitimacy to secure his fourth term, which is concerning. In fact, whether the US will definitely send troops to defend Taiwan against a CCP attack is still a strategic ambiguity among the two major parties, so both Harris and Trump are also strategically ambiguous.
Trump has been referred to as a businessman, potentially resulting in foreign policy with more of a profit-oriented approach, like mentioning that Taiwan has not paid protection fees to the US. Chen Shi-min noted that when Trump suggested Taiwan increase its military spending for protection, it was not just targeting Taiwan but all US allies, including South Korea, Japan, and Europe. “It is important to emphasize that Trump’s foreign policy, as he has said, is America First, thinking about how to adopt policies towards Taiwan.”
Sun Guoxiang, Associate Professor at South China University of Technology’s Department of International Affairs and Business, told Epoch Times that if Trump is re-elected, the US’s stance on the Taiwan Strait issue may become more assertive, further enhancing support for Taiwan. The US may also demand Taiwan to increase defense spending as a percentage of its GDP.
“During his first term, Trump increased arms sales to Taiwan, enhanced official US-Taiwan contacts, and reiterated the US’s commitment to Taiwan. If he wins again, he may continue and strengthen this strategy, including increasing military support and economic ties with Taiwan as a key measure to counter China (CCP),” Sun Guoxiang said.
He believes that such a policy shift may lead to further tensions in US-China relations and greater uncertainty in the Taiwan Strait, as the CCP may take harder countermeasures. The CCP may show more aggression in the South China Sea and East Asia.
Sun Guoxiang said that if Harris wins, although the policy towards Taiwan will continue to support Taiwan’s defense capabilities, it will tend towards diplomatic means. While the US’s stance on the Taiwan Strait issue may not weaken, she may seek to avoid direct confrontation as much as possible.
“She may seek dialogue opportunities with China to balance and avoid a rapid escalation of the Taiwan Strait situation. Therefore, the triangular relationship between the US, China, and Taiwan may maintain a stable but cautious interaction, with the US support for Taiwan remaining solid but more focused on regional stability,” he said.
In terms of the trade war, Sun Guoxiang believes that if Trump is re-elected, the US-China trade war may intensify further, as it began during Trump’s first term when the US imposed high tariffs on China and adopted policies to decouple from China’s economy. This includes limiting the entry of Chinese companies into the US market, promoting the return of US companies and restricting the export of key technologies.
“It is expected that if Trump is re-elected, he will continue to advance similar policies, possibly increasing tariffs on China and exerting further pressure on China in the economic and technological fields,” Sun Guoxiang said.
He believes that under this tough stance, US-China relations will continue to be tense, engaging in new economic confrontations in key areas such as high technology, financial services, and rare earths. This also includes countering China’s sales to the US through third countries.
Sun Guoxiang said that if Harris wins, the handling of the US-China trade war may be relatively moderate. Although the mainstream view within the Democratic Party also supports taking a certain tough stance against the CCP, especially in protecting human rights and countering the expansion of Chinese influence, she may lean more towards pressuring China through multilateralism and ally cooperation. She may choose to cooperate with China in areas like environmental protection while seeking some relaxation or adjustment in tariff policies to avoid complete decoupling. In terms of technology, she will still ensure US advantage in critical areas.
Regarding the changes in the US-China trade war, Chen Shi-min predicted, if Harris is elected, like Biden, their policy simplistically speaking is to diversify risks. The first is to diversify supply chains, and the second is to diversify markets, not overly relying on China as a consumer market.
On the technology battle front, Harris will continue the US’s strategy of a “small courtyard, high wall,” restricting key technologies from being provided to China as Biden has done.
In this regard, Chen Shi-min emphasized once again the uncertainty of Trump’s policies.
Trump has said that if elected, he would impose a 60% tariff on China. Chen Shi-min commented that Trump may not necessarily decouple from the Chinese economy but rather utilize it as leverage to force concessions from the CCP.
“For example, like in January 2020, the US-China trade agreement where China (CCP) promised Trump to buy $40 billion worth of US agricultural products for two years as long as you are willing to improve the US-China trade deficit, Trump might not really impose a 60% tariff. At the same time, Trump of course also wants to use high tariffs to bring back manufacturing and, in totality, if Trump takes office, the trade relationship between the US and China may be more volatile.”
As for the speculation about whether Beijing has a preference for one candidate over the other, Sun Guoxiang stated that the Chinese government usually does not publicly declare such preferences. However, from the standpoint of trade, technology, and geopolitics, it seems that Beijing is making important considerations between the possibility of Harris or Trump taking office.
Chen Shi-min believes that Beijing is likely monitoring the situation and will respond based on the confirmed election results.
“Both candidates will take a tough stance against the CCP, albeit in different ways. For example, Harris just seeks to diversify risks, not decouple from China’s economy, but Trump is more likely to decouple. For Harris and Biden today, they have repeatedly emphasized that they will not seek to change China’s political system, but during the Trump era in 2020, then Secretary of State Mike Pompeo once said that the CCP is not the same as China, to some extent encouraging the Chinese people to peacefully change and replace the Communist Party regime with a democratic and free regime like the US.”
He believes that according to a recent survey in the US, 81% of Americans do not have a favorable view of China (CCP), feeling increasingly disenchanted with the country under Xi Jinping’s rule. “The current political atmosphere in the US is that anti-Communism has become a consensus, but the approaches, perhaps Harris and Trump have some differences, so for Beijing, it may also be monitoring the situation.”