Taiwanese meteorologists have stated today (4th) that the potential typhoon Danauss is expected to approach Taiwan on the 5th, with the most significant impact anticipated on the 6th to 7th in the first half of the day, posing a considerable threat to the island.
According to the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan, the tropical system near the Philippines is expected to rapidly intensify into a tropical depression by the 5th, with the possibility of further strengthening into Typhoon Danauss over the weekend.
Associate professor Wu Derong from the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at Central University mentioned in the “Weather Machine Classroom” column of the Meteorological Application Promotion Fund that the latest European model simulations from 8 pm on the 3rd show clear and hot weather across Taiwan today, with strong ultraviolet rays. People are advised to take precautions against sunburn and heatstroke.
Wu explained that there is a chance of isolated brief showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon in mountainous areas and plains south of Chiayi today, as well as sporadic rainfall possibilities in the eastern part and the Hengchun Peninsula. Temperatures are expected to range from 24 to 38 degrees Celsius in the north, 25 to 37 degrees Celsius in the central region, 24 to 37 degrees Celsius in the south, and 21 to 36 degrees Celsius in the east.
Regarding the latest model simulations, Wu mentioned that on the 5th, northern Taiwan will continue to experience clear and hot weather, so sun protection and heatstroke prevention are crucial. In the southern and eastern parts, the weather is expected to turn showery in the second half of the day due to the influence of Typhoon Danauss’ outer moisture, with the potential for heavier rainfall. The most significant impact of Typhoon Danauss is expected on the 6th to 7th in the first half of the day, with concerns about strong winds and heavy rains. The weather is predicted to gradually ease in the afternoon of the 7th. However, the simulations are still being adjusted, and there is uncertainty, so it is essential to continue monitoring the latest information.
The Taiwan Central Weather Bureau’s “Path Potential Forecast Map” shows that Typhoon Lekima is currently in the waters south of Japan, turning northeast and moving away from Japan.
Wu stated that according to the latest European model simulations, another tropical system northwest of Luzon Island is developing slowly due to terrain and vertical wind shear restrictions; it is first directed by the Pacific high pressure to move westward, enter the South China Sea to develop into a typhoon. By the 5th, it is expected to turn northeast under the influence of southwest winds, approaching Taiwan and passing through the Taiwan Strait on the 6th, with the storm circle sweeping over land. Subsequently, guided by the high pressure to the northeast, it is predicted to turn towards Fujian and Zhejiang, posing a significant threat to Taiwan.
Wu reiterated that the latest European ensemble model simulations indicate uncertainty due to the high-pressure formation shift towards southwest winds and the two key factors, resulting in a westward then northeast turn in the simulated path. Although it is relatively more concentrated, it is still dispersed over Taiwan’s land and western side. Similarly, the United States ensemble model (GEFS) simulations show a similar shift, but mostly dispersed on the eastern side of Taiwan. As the models continue to adjust, close monitoring is advised.