The Chinese Communist Party’s official release of the so-called “further comprehensive deepening of reform” related documents passed by the Third Plenum on July 21 were accompanied by an explanation from party leader Xi Jinping, who acknowledged that various “black swan” and “gray rhino” events could happen at any time. Experts noted that the so-called reform-themed meeting of the CCP was filled with political purge implications. As for the “black swan” and “gray rhino” events, they are actually created by the CCP.
According to the report from Xinhua News Agency, the document passed at the Third Plenum on July 18, titled “Decision on Further Deepening Reform, Advancing China’s Modernization,” spans over 22,000 words, with a total of 15 major items and 60 detailed points. In addition to the economic aspects, the “Decision” also includes contents related to “national security,” national defense and military reforms, ideology, anti-corruption, and other political control measures. The document emphasizes the insistence on “the centralized unified leadership of the Party” in its final sections.
Chinese issues expert Wang He told The Epoch Times that the dilemma faced by the CCP at the Third Plenum is the difficulty in the Chinese economy, but Xi Jinping intentionally downplays it, adopting an ostrich policy, using non-economic content to dilute the economic crisis. “In reality, the economic market is shaky, and its long-standing issues have been gradually intensifying.”
He believes that the authorities are now unrealistically projecting the future using the Party culture, and their proposed reform measures lack real impact on addressing the actual societal dilemmas, only engaging in empty talks.
For example, the severe issue of the Chinese social security pension fund is not being effectively addressed, with the policy of raising the retirement age being slow to implement (officially termed as “steadily and orderly promoting a gradual” reform). The CCP operates under a highly centralized authoritarian system where one person’s decree carries weight, so why is a small specific policy like this not being pushed forward? This illustrates the severe internal divisions within the CCP, with different departments prioritizing their own interests. Thus, the entire document is filled with clichés and lacks substantive policy measures.
Wang He also mentioned, “Take the real estate sector, for instance, where concrete policies were expected to be introduced by the central government with significant funding to make them effective, but instead, the responsibility was passed down to local authorities, demonstrating a lack of effective policy coordination on a national level.”
According to the Third Plenum’s “Decision,” the authorities claim to accelerate the establishment of a new development model for the real estate sector, granting various city governments autonomy in housing market regulation and allowing relevant cities to lift or reduce housing purchase restrictions.
In the so-called “deepening reform” document of the CCP, it emphasizes “upholding Xi’s central leadership” and “strengthening centralized unified leadership.” Lai Rongwei, Executive Director of the Taiwan Inspiration Association (TIA), told The Epoch Times that this implies internal challenges to central authority and unified leadership in political, economic, and social aspects within China.
Lai Rongwei stated, “The more the Chinese economy declines and society becomes unstable, the more local governments run out of money, leading to the inability to implement the Party Central’s ideas. Some people may pay lip service to Xi Jinping on the surface, but in reality, they think differently. ‘Practicing deception,’ if you don’t provide me with funds, I have to resort to other methods, causing more grievances among the people.”
He noted that issues mentioned in the document such as income distribution, employment, retirement age, and ethnic problems are all challenges faced by the CCP. Many in China predict that the economy could face a setback lasting for 50 years, “If people can’t feed themselves, won’t they rebel?”
The CCP authorities claim they will “advance nationwide anti-corruption legislation, amend the supervisory law, and enact laws against cross-border corruption.” Lai Rongwei mentioned that all current officials are aligned with Xi Jinping’s faction, and the intensified rectification efforts even see dissents emerging from his own faction. “Some are challenging Xi Jinping’s authority, but the anti-corruption campaigns are merely used for political purges and also highlight the deeply rooted corruption issues.”
Gong Xiangsheng, Deputy Researcher of the Taiwan Institute of National Defense Security, stated that since taking office, Xi Jinping continues to rectify Party, government, and military officials, revealing his deep insecurity. Emphasizing centralized unified leadership is essentially centralizing power unto himself, reflecting his concerns about losing power.
Wang He noted that the CCP’s rhetoric on strengthening Party leadership and anti-corruption is merely a gruesome expression of internal power struggles.
“Currently, China faces severe economic and social difficulties, and it is impossible for Xi Jinping to make everyone believe in him. By emphasizing strengthening Party leadership, establishing and maintaining two affirmations, and two safeguards, they are disguising internal strife using theoretical jargon.”
In terms of the military, the official “Decision” mentions improving weapons procurement systems, establishing feedback mechanisms for weapon design, and constructing a modernized management system for weapon equipment, among others. Hong Zijie, Deputy Researcher at the Taiwan Institute of National Defense Security studying China’s sharp power and cross-strait relations, told The Epoch Times that this move is to address the aftermath of the corruption scandals within the Rocket Force and the Central Military Commission Equipment Development Department.
Yesterday, the official announcement also revealed Xi Jinping’s explanation of the Third Plenum’s “Decision.” Xi claimed that there were four main considerations for the topic of “further comprehensive deepening of reform,” one of which he mentioned as “external suppression and containment escalation,” stating that various “black swan” and “gray rhino” events could occur at any time for the CCP.
“Black swan” usually refers to unforeseen risks, while “gray rhino” refers to risks that could have been foreseen but were ignored.
Gong Xiangsheng indicated that these four considerations are the official recognition of China’s internal and external predicaments. However, understanding the situation and solving the problems are two separate matters, especially with the dual challenges of external technological sanctions and core technology bottlenecks, it is difficult for the CCP to overcome them in the short term through internal reforms.
He believes that for Xi, he can only prepare for increasingly unfavorable international conditions, considering the prospect of a return of former President Trump or his reelection, which could present a major “gray rhino” for the CCP.
Hong Zijie mentioned that in terms of national security and defense, the “Decision” of the Third Plenum mentions “enhancing countermeasures against sanctions, interference, and extraterritorial jurisdiction, strengthening mechanisms to protect maritime rights.” This indicates that the CCP will continue to adopt a confrontational stance against the U.S., utilizing not only legal means but also political and military tactics.
Wang He stated, “The CCP has been crying ‘black swan’ and ‘gray rhino’ for several years now. The long-standing financial problems domestically fall under the ‘gray rhino’ category. As for external matters, the recent announcement by the CCP to suspend military control talks with the U.S., holding military exercises in Belarus coinciding with the NATO summit, followed by joint naval patrols in the South China Sea by China and Russia. While the CCP hopes to ease tensions with the U.S. and seeks economic cooperation with the West, they adopt a ‘wolf warrior’ stance, leading Western countries to strengthen their countermeasures. The ‘black swan’ and ‘gray rhino’ they seek to prevent are actually self-inflicted, and they are only multiplying.”