A marine strategic expert has emphasized the significance of US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell’s visit to the Pacific islands, stating that it is “critical.” Several experts have also highlighted the strategic importance of the region.
On August 29th, Campbell led a US delegation to Vanuatu, officially opening the newly constructed US embassy. Prior to this, he attended the 53rd Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting in Tonga. The forum hosted the largest-ever delegation from the Chinese Communist Party.
This visit is part of the White House’s Pacific Partnership Strategy, unveiled by the Biden administration in September 2022, at a time when the Chinese government was increasing its influence activities in the region and adopting an assertive stance in the South China Sea.
In an email interview with the Epoch Times, military and Asia-Pacific experts have expressed that the US presence in Oceania is a crucial component in preventing potential conflicts due to the Taiwan issue.
James Holmes, a professor of strategy at the US Naval War College, referred to the strategic value of the Pacific islands located between Australasia, the Americas, and East Asia, saying, “Eighty years later, their value has not diminished in the slightest.”
He mentioned the strategic significance of these islands during World War II when the US military used them as bases to advance towards the Japanese Empire in the Pacific theater.
Holmes stated that the Chinese government “eagerly wants to prevent the US military from accessing these islands” to gain a strategic advantage in potential armed conflicts.
Moreover, he mentioned that besides the defensive benefits, gaining access to these islands would open various offensive options for Beijing, extending its presence into the Central Pacific.
Taiwan, known as the Republic of China, was originally a continuation of an exiled regime that controlled mainland China before the Chinese Communist Party took over in 1949.
Currently, Taiwan is a major supplier of high-end semiconductor products worldwide. The island also forms the first island chain in the US strategy to deter the former Soviet Union and the Chinese Communist Party.
The question of whether the US should or would directly intervene if China invaded Taiwan elicits a variety of answers. Nonetheless, the US has been assisting Taiwan militarily and training its military personnel for self-defense, particularly following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Andrew Harding, a research assistant at The Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies Center, emphasized that the US must prevent Chinese leader Xi Jinping from believing that China would win a war.
Since Taiwan’s new president Tsai Ing-wen took office in May, the Chinese Communist Party has stepped up attacks on so-called separatist forces in Taiwan and announced support for executing “stubborn” supporters of Taiwan independence, while also increasing military and patrol activities in the Taiwan Strait.
On the probability of China successfully occupying Taiwan, Ivan Kanapathy, Senior Vice President at Beacon Global Strategies, commented that while it is currently unlikely, the US needs to bolster its deterrent capabilities as Chinese military strength remains stagnant.
He warned that China has staked its legitimacy on eventually taking over Taiwan, while US deterrence weakens, and unless the US significantly boosts its military strength in the coming years, it may lose its decisive advantage, allowing Xi Jinping to consider an offensive.
It is crucial for the US to ally with countries like Indonesia, Singapore, and even non-democratic nations like Vietnam under communist rule, to defend the post-war order against countries seeking to undermine democratic systems like China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran.
Holmes emphasized that while allies should shoulder their responsibilities, it is essential not to exclude countries based on their governance systems, as reinforcing pathways is critical, as exemplified by Kurt Campbell’s visit.
A recent report by Australia’s Lowy Institute pointed out that in the escalating geopolitical competition among major powers, the Pacific island nations have become key decision-makers in diplomacy, utilizing the intensifying competition to maximize development and interests.
Ralph Cossa, Honorary Chairman of the Pacific Forum and President of the World Association for Sustainable Development and Peace Studies, mentioned that while Beijing has the right to engage with Pacific countries, it is not a zero-sum game; however, he warned against China’s intentions to disrupt democratic systems and harm Taiwan’s legitimate interests in improving relations.
Weakening Taiwan has been one of the conditions for China’s financial support to the Pacific island nations.
Since 2019, three Pacific countries – the Solomon Islands, Kiribati, and Nauru – have successively ceased diplomatic relations with Taiwan, opting to establish ties with Beijing, leaving Taiwan with formal diplomatic relations with only 12 countries, three of which are Pacific countries.
Cossa added that in addition to pressing Taiwan, Chinese assistance often “com…
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