The US Air Force is considering reshaping its combat approach in the Pacific region to address the increasing challenges posed by Communist China. Instead of focusing solely on expensive fighter jets, the US Air Force is shifting towards low-cost technologies such as drones and hypersonic missiles, adopting dispersed tactics to maintain superiority.
A recent report from a research institute specializing in Chinese aerospace development emphasized the need for the Air Force to update its equipment priorities to counter the CCP’s military expansion. The experience of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has shown that modern warfare can quickly deplete military resources, making reliance on limited expensive weapons impractical. In preparation for prolonged conflicts, developing advanced yet cost-effective weapons is crucial.
The use of long-range precision strikes and drones has already changed the rules of the game, allowing forces to maintain combat effectiveness while avoiding enemy firepower. Dispersed warfare tactics have proven effective in helping forces maintain strength and strike back efficiently. Based on these understandings, the US Air Force is gearing up for potential conflicts in the Indo-Pacific region, which could be broader and more intense than the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The CCP is attempting to alter the global power balance, seeking to push US forces out of the Indo-Pacific region through an Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) strategy. This strategy aims to use missiles, aircraft, and naval defense systems to impede entry, making it costly or difficult to access disputed areas.
To address this challenge, the research institute recommends focusing on affordable, easily replaceable weapons capable of penetrating defenses, such as low-cost drones and hypersonic missiles. While advanced aircraft like the B-21 bomber and next-generation fighters remain important, the focus is gradually shifting towards high-tech weapons with survivability and consumable tactical platforms.
US Air Force bases in the Indo-Pacific region, especially in Japan, are vulnerable to attacks and could become targets of CCP missiles, drones, and hypersonic weapons. The US Department of Defense noted in its 2023 China Military Power Report that the CCP continues to expand its long-range and medium-range ballistic missile capabilities, enabling it to target critical US military facilities across the Indo-Pacific, including bases on Guam.
Additionally, as of May 2023, the US Department of Defense estimates that Beijing possesses over 500 deployable nuclear warheads, with the number continuously increasing. Given the CCP’s expanding missile capabilities, bolstering base defenses alone is insufficient. Therefore, the US is adopting a new strategy: decentralized deployment to reduce risks.
The US military is repositioning aircraft at multiple locations to minimize the risk of being targeted. This strategy, known as Agile Combat Employment, involves identifying, upgrading, and repairing airports throughout the Pacific region, including wartime-era airfields such as Tinian. By redeveloping airports like Tinian, a small island near Guam that served as a strategic outpost during World War II, the Air Force aims to enhance flexibility and survivability.
Michael P. Winkle, the Deputy Director for Air and Cyberspace Operations at Pacific Air Forces, stressed the importance of avoiding concentrating all aircraft in one location to prevent presenting an “enticing target” to adversaries. This strategy requires utilizing multiple airfields during crises, necessitating coordination with regional allies such as Japan and the Philippines.
Ensuring agreements with regional allies for use is crucial as these partners can provide multiple military and civilian runways, although not all runways meet Air Force requirements. US pilots are visiting potential sites such as the Basa Air Base in the Philippines, Tinian, Guam, Saipan, and Palau airports to familiarize themselves with the surroundings and prepare for future operations. Several locations are undergoing upgrades to improve facilities and personnel training.
The second island chain, including some US-controlled areas, is more accessible and upgradable, but the first island chain, encompassing Japan, the Philippines, and Taiwan, is strategically more vital due to its proximity to China. Operations in this region require cooperation with regional partners, whose political situations may be unpredictable. Despite these challenges, the US maintains strong partnerships in the region.
Recent military exercises have tested this decentralized combat approach. In February, US and ally aircraft operated from multiple airfields on Guam, Saipan, and Tinian. In the June Brave Shield exercise led by the US, American fighters used Japan’s Matsushima Air Base in Miyagi Prefecture and Hachinohe Air Base in Aomori Prefecture for the first time. Under the US-Japan alliance agreement, Japanese bases can serve as evacuations points for American aircraft in emergencies.
However, decentralized deployment poses challenges, especially in logistics. During conflicts, the US must transport equipment, spare parts, fuel, ammunition, and logistics personnel to dispersed and contested locations or preposition supplies in these areas. This process is complex, and the strategy’s effectiveness hinges on reliable logistics. The Air Force must strike a balance between the benefits of being dispersed and logistical operability.
Similarly, Stacie Pettyjohn, a Senior Research Fellow at the Washington-based think tank New American Security Center, stated that conducting operations from more locations with smaller units reduces the chances of the CCP successfully launching large-scale attacks, thereby adding another layer of deterrence.
This strategic shift reflects the widespread recognition of the changing nature of warfare. The Air Force is adapting to this change by prioritizing flexibility, resilience, and cost-effectiveness, aiming to maintain superiority in a rapidly evolving security environment through decentralized deployment and investment in advanced yet economically viable arms.