On Monday (November 24), boosted by optimism about a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve, Asian stocks and US stock index futures both rose, while oil prices continued to decline after seeing the largest drop since October last week.
Last Friday, John Williams, President of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, stated that he believed the current monetary policy in the United States is still “moderately restrictive” and mentioned, “I believe there is still room in the short term to further adjust the target range for the federal funds rate to bring the policy stance closer to neutral.”
Williams emphasized that there are signs of softening in the labor market and that the threats facing the labor market are greater than the risk of inflation, which is a key reason supporting a rate cut.
Influenced by these statements, market expectations for a rate cut have been raised again. At the time of writing, according to the FedWatch tool from the CME Group, traders are currently betting that there is nearly a 70% (69.4%) probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December.
Against this backdrop, the US S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index futures opened the new week with an increase of about 0.5%. Previously, all three major US indices rebounded last Friday, with the S&P 500 index up 0.98%, the Dow Jones up 1.08%, and the Nasdaq up 0.88%.
In Asian markets, the Australian S&P/ASX 200 index rose about 1%, the South Korean KOSPI index gained over 1%, the small-cap KOSDAQ also climbed, the Taiwan Weighted Index rose by 0.65%, and the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong also increased by 0.93%.
However, the Shanghai Composite Index fell slightly by 0.25%. The Japanese stock market was closed for a day due to the “Labor Thanksgiving Day” holiday.
In the commodity market, gold prices held steady. With the market digesting signals of a possible further rate cut by the Federal Reserve, spot gold rose slightly by 0.1% in the Asian session on Monday, reaching $4,070 per ounce; silver, platinum, and palladium also rose simultaneously. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index also edged up slightly.
Oil prices continued to decline. Traders pushed down oil prices as they believed that a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine could increase crude oil supply prospects. The oil market recorded its largest weekly decline since early October in the previous week.
However, market experts cautioned that although Wall Street sentiment has improved, volatility may still continue. Due to significant selling pressure on tech stocks last week, leading Asian tech giants including SoftBank, Samsung Electronics, and TSMC experienced pressure, causing Asian stock indices to see the largest weekly decline since April. Despite the encouraging rebound, uncertainty remains regarding whether investors’ risk sentiment has fully recovered.
Furthermore, according to reports from US media, US officials are preliminarily discussing whether to allow Nvidia to sell its H200 artificial intelligence chips to China. This news also boosted sentiment related to tech stocks.
Last week, the cryptocurrency market experienced violent fluctuations, with Bitcoin falling on Monday after rising over the weekend, reversing some of its gains.
In the European currency market, the euro and the pound remained stable on Monday. Concerns arose from European fiscal pressures, with the French National Assembly rejecting parts of the 2026 budget bill over the weekend, highlighting the challenges Paris authorities face in reducing deficits.
The UK government announced that it will unveil its Autumn Budget on Wednesday, where it is estimated that railway ticket prices will be frozen for the first time in 30 years. Authorities stated that this measure will help curb inflation, ease the cost of living pressure on the public, and support economic growth.
In terms of geopolitics, tensions between China and Japan continue to escalate. Japan’s Defense Minister stated during an inspection at a military base close to Taiwan that the plan to deploy new missiles by Japan is progressing smoothly, and despite the increasing tensions between China and Japan, relevant deployments will continue according to schedule.
Regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on Sunday that the November 27 deadline set by President Trump for the “Peace Plan for Ukraine Support” is not a fixed date and may be postponed to next week. He also mentioned that the US and Ukraine have made clear progress in the direction of an agreement during their talks in Geneva.