**China’s Real Estate Giant Vanke Faces Financial Struggles**
China’s real estate market is far from bottoming out, as major real estate companies continue to suffer in the harsh winter. On November 26, the state-owned enterprise giant Vanke saw both its stocks and bonds plummet. Its H-shares plunged by 6%, while its A-shares hit a 10-year low, with several domestic bonds falling to temporary halts. There are reports that the Chinese authorities have demanded the Shenzhen government to take the responsibility, and Vanke may face bankruptcy or restructuring.
By the closing bell, Vanke A-shares (000002.SZ) dropped below 6 yuan (RMB), trading at 5.89 yuan per share, a decrease of 2.48%, marking its lowest point since 2015. Vanke A has experienced a cumulative decline of over 13% in nearly 60 trading days.
In the Hong Kong market, Vanke Enterprises (02202.HK) was listed at 3.89 Hong Kong dollars, plummeting by 6.04%, with a trading volume of 440 million Hong Kong dollars. From September 12 to the current date, its price has fallen from 5.94 Hong Kong dollars to below 4 Hong Kong dollars, resulting in a more than 26% decline since the beginning of the year.
In the bond market, on November 25, Vanke’s US dollar bonds recorded a significant drop, with the company’s 3.975% bonds falling by 12 cents to 43.5 cents per USD, a 21% decline, marking the largest single-day drop since the bond’s issuance. This decline also affected several domestic bonds on the same day, with four bonds experiencing over a 10% decline.
On November 26, Vanke’s domestic bonds continued to drop across the board. Bonds such as “21 Vanke 04,” “22 Vanke 02,” and “22 Vanke 04” plummeted by over 20%, triggering temporary halts in trading. In the afternoon, “22 Vanke 02” dropped by over 30%, leading to a second temporary trading halt.
Since November, Vanke’s domestic bonds have been declining for several days. On November 2, Vanke announced a framework agreement with its major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, where Vanke could obtain a maximum loan amount of 22 billion yuan from Shenzhen Metro by June 30, 2026.
On the late night of November 11, Vanke announced that Shenzhen Metro Group provided a loan of no more than 1.666 billion yuan to repay the principal and interest of the company’s publicly issued bonds. According to Huatai Securities estimates, Vanke’s outstanding domestic bond principal and interest from November 2025 to June 2026 amount to approximately 15.546 billion yuan, with outstanding US dollar bond interest around 300 million USD.
At the same time, there are market speculations that the Chinese authorities have asked the Shenzhen government to deal with Vanke’s debt issues, indicating that Vanke may face bankruptcy or restructuring.
On November 26, “Uncle Bao,” a financial blogger who claims to be responsible for the economic dynamics between the United States and China, posted on the social platform X, stating that “the central government has instructed the Shenzhen government to handle Vanke’s debt problems in a ‘market-oriented’ manner. Bankruptcy should be bankrupt, restructuring should be restructured, the bottomless pit cannot be filled anymore, hence the immediate drop in Vanke’s debts.”
On the same day, Oriental Fortune Network published an article from the financial self-media “Financial Talk,” titled “Vanke, Doomed to Self-Destruction.”
The article mentioned that on November 26, the capital market’s attention once again turned to Vanke. On this day, several Vanke bonds experienced a cliff-like drop. Behind the sudden decline lies a market rumor. According to Octus reports, the central government has issued preliminary instructions to the Shenzhen government, considering a “market-oriented” approach to handle Vanke’s debt.
Founded in 2013, Octus is a global credit information and data provider that was formerly known as Reorg, catering to top-tier companies, investment banks, law firms, and consulting firms worldwide.
The article pointed out that just six days prior, at Vanke’s extraordinary general meeting on November 20, the newly appointed Chairman, Huang Liping, openly stated that major shareholder Shenzhen Metro would continue to support Vanke in an orderly risk resolution. With the bond market voting with their feet and major shareholders just making support commitments, coupled with the management upheaval of changing chairmen twice within six months, Vanke’s situation has become increasingly delicate.
If Shenzhen Metro no longer allows blood transfusions to Vanke, it signifies that Vanke will enter a new phase of “self-destruction.”
Shenzhen Metro Group is the largest shareholder of Vanke, holding a 27.18% stake, and has injected over 150 billion yuan into Vanke since 2017, including loans. In just the first ten months of 2025, it provided eleven loans totaling 29.13 billion yuan, with an interest rate of approximately 2.34%, significantly lower than the market average.
Shenzhen Metro Group is also a wholly state-owned large enterprise directly managed by the Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission since 2017.