European Union diplomats and a senior EU official said on Tuesday (June 11) that Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, appears to be on track for a second five-year term, while the Prime Minister of Estonia and a former Prime Minister of Portugal are also in line for top EU positions.
EU leaders are set to gather in Brussels next Monday for their first joint review of the European parliamentary elections.
Diplomats indicated that they expect to reach informal decisions on a range of positions, including the EU summit chair and the High Representative for Foreign Affairs, to be confirmed at the EU summit on June 28-29.
Von der Leyen’s center-right European People’s Party (EPP) remains the largest party in these elections, which means the party will determine who gets appointed to the most powerful positions in the EU institutions – the President of the Commission.
Per unwritten rules, the winner of the European elections can campaign for the position of President of the European Commission.
With leaders from 13 EU countries belonging to the EPP, Germany is expected to support Von der Leyen, and France is also leaning towards backing her, giving her the necessary qualified majority – 15 out of 27 countries, representing 65% of the EU population.
Other positions are expected to be allocated to the second-largest parliamentary group, the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), and the liberal “Renew Europe” group, who are likely to form a ruling coalition.
Former Prime Minister of Portugal Antonio Costa is the main candidate to succeed Charles Michel as the President of the European Council, a position that involves liaising with EU leaders and chairing EU summits.
Luis Montenegro, the new Prime Minister leading the right-wing alliance in Portugal, has stated his support for Costa’s candidacy. EU diplomats mentioned that Costa also has the backing of German Chancellor Olaf Sholz from the Social Democratic Party.
Costa stepped down from the Prime Minister’s position last November amid allegations of irregularities in dealing with lithium and hydrogen projects, as well as a large data center, though he denies any wrongdoing.
An EU diplomat commented, “Some people in the Northern countries are not happy about Costa being involved in a corruption investigation, but there really isn’t another candidate as the Danish Social Democrats are too anti-immigrant.”
A EU diplomat stated that liberal individuals are likely to fill the crucial role of EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas is a leading candidate for this position and holds a hawkish stance towards Russia, which shares a border with Estonia.
The diplomat added, “However, Kallas must assure the Southern countries that she won’t overly focus on Russia during her term.”
The President of the European Commission will also need the support of the new European Parliament, which is set to hold its first session on July 16.
A senior EU official stated, “I am very optimistic that the nominee for the EU Commission president will win the vote at the July plenary session.”
If confirmed, this smooth approval stands in stark contrast to the prolonged debates among EU leaders over these positions in 2019.
In the current European parliamentary elections, several vocal critics of the Chinese Communist Party have been reelected, including French parliamentarian Raphaël Glucksmann and Miriam Lexmann from the Christian Democrats in Slovakia.
Glucksmann has consistently opposed the “re-education camps” in Xinjiang. In 2021, after the Chinese Ambassador to France insulted a French scholar, Glucksmann responded, “If our government leaders still have dignity and national pride, they should immediately summon the Chinese ambassador and explain sternly: ‘If you continue to act recklessly, you will be sent back to China.’ At certain moments, we can no longer turn a blind eye and must stand up straight.”
On March 22 of the same year, the Chinese Foreign Ministry announced sanctions against Glucksmann and ten others, along with four entities. Lexmann has also been sanctioned by China for her remarks related to Xinjiang.