In the mysterious September of Zhongnanhai, there are whirlwinds brewing. There are widespread rumors that a unprecedented power struggle is unfolding within the top ranks of the Chinese Communist Party, with Xi Jinping squarely in the crosshairs. Recently, multiple commentators have revealed that the “final battle” between Zhang Youxia and Xi Jinping quietly began in September, with Xi Jinping even reportedly placed under soft detention. So, how will this intense struggle affect the future of China? Today’s “Epoch Focus” takes you on an in-depth analysis.
On September 17, commentator “Xiaoshuojia” revealed on his YouTube channel that someone informed him that Xi Jinping is currently being temporarily detained by Zhang Youxia, as Zhang Youxia wants to obtain something he desires from Xi Jinping. The specifics of what this “something” is were not disclosed by the informant. According to the source, the showdown between Zhang Youxia and Xi Jinping erupted in September.
“Xiaoshuojia” mentioned that this recent revelation aligns closely with information he received ten days prior on September 7 from another source. He speculated that the informant on September 7 likely had connections close to Zhang Youxia.
The September 7 revelation indicated that several months ago, Zhang Youxia had mentioned he was waiting for something. The disclosure also mentioned that last year, when Xi Jinping suddenly disappeared from the public eye for a period, it was because Zhang Youxia and Xi Jinping were in a struggle to acquire certain things and were exchanging items.
“Xiaoshuojia” believed that Zhang Youxia has held military power for a long time and questioned why he didn’t directly remove Xi Jinping, even going as far as allowing Xi Jinping to preside over the September 3 military parade. One major possibility is that both sides have incriminating material on each other. This leverage could end the political career of the other, causing a ripple effect, hence both sides refraining from openly revealing these matters.
According to “Xiaoshuojia’s” analysis, this incriminating material likely involves some confidential documents from the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. The 20th Congress was a blatant political coup, with core confidential files inevitably in existence internally. During the 20th Congress, Zhang Youxia was still loyal to Xi Jinping, serving as Xi’s most trusted ally within the military.
Xiaoshuojia stated: “I believe the 20th Congress coup involved Zhang Youxia because without cooperation from the military, Xi Jinping wouldn’t dare initiate such a move. These internal confidential documents probably have been in Xi Jinping’s possession all this time. Once Xi publicly exposes this information, Zhang Youxia could potentially be overthrown.”
As for why Zhang Youxia didn’t directly confront Xi Jinping after gaining military power, some analysts suggest it’s not because he didn’t want to, or because he has compromising materials in Xi Jinping’s hands, but rather due to a compromise with Hu Jintao.
Regarding the September 3 parade, commentator “Qiangnei Putongren” recently explained on his YouTube program that it was Hu Jintao who insisted on Xi Jinping inspecting the troops. Hu Jintao, along with Wen Jiabao and Li Ruilan, persuaded Zhang Youxia to accept this decision. Hu Jintao’s reasoning was to maintain unity within the party, keeping internal struggles discreet and preventing opportunities for hostile forces.
Due to Hu Jintao’s insistence, Wen Jiabao and Li Ruilan could only persuade Zhang Youxia that as Xi Jinping was still Chairman of the Central Military Commission, not letting him inspect the troops would tarnish the Communist Party’s image in front of others.
However, despite allowing Xi Jinping to inspect the troops, Zhang Youxia was deeply upset. Consequently, he appointed a retiring senior general as the overall commander for the parade and ordered all senior Communist Party leaders not to attend the September 3 parade.
“Qiangnei Putongren” pointed out that many of Xi Jinping’s policy reversals were influenced by Hu Jintao. Before the 18th National Congress, there was intense infighting within the Communist Party, with Xi Jinping and Bo Xilai, two princelings, competing for ultimate power with Li Keqiang and Wang Yang.
Due to the Wang Lijun defection incident, under Wen Jiabao’s pressure, Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin were forced to bring down Bo Xilai. However, regarding Xi Jinping, Jiang Zemin and Zeng Qinghong insisted on his ascension.
Meanwhile, Wen Jiabao always saw Xi Jinping’s intellectual level as inadequate, given Xi’s upbringing in the Red Guards, having troubling ethical, moral, and worldview issues due to his Cultural Revolution background similar to Bo Xilai. Hence, Wen Jiabao strongly promoted Li Keqiang as the General Secretary and Wang Yang as Premier.
However, due to Hu Jintao’s fear of party division and reluctance to engage in a fierce battle against Jiang Zemin and Zeng Qinghong, he ultimately sacrificed Li Keqiang and Wang Yang, against his conscience, agreeing to let Xi Jinping ascend.
“Qiangnei Putongren” remarked that Hu Jintao repeatedly made wrong decisions in the past. Now, history has given him one last chance to make the right choice. It is hoped that this time, Hu Jintao will not make the wrong decision. It’s hoped that when choosing between Wang Yang and Hu Chunhua at the Fourth Plenum, he will support Wen Jiabao’s proposition.
According to the revelations by “Qiangnei Putongren,” Wen Jiabao believed that only by appointing Wang Yang as the General Secretary could political reform be initiated, giving China’s economy a chance to breathe. However, if the conservative Hu Chunhua were to take over, there would be no hope for political reform within the Communist Party.
Previously, Wen Jiabao asked Zhang Youxia to compromise on the September 3 parade with Hu Jintao. Now, he’s seeking Hu Jintao’s compromise at the Fourth Plenum, giving Wang Yang an opportunity.
On the “Qiangnei Putongren” program, it was mentioned after the September 3 parade, Wang Yang ascended the Tiananmen Gate tower, with current members of the Political Bureau enthusiastically greeting him from the observation platform. This scene, along with the relaxed demeanor of Wen Jiabao and Li Ruilan, seemingly indicated the increased likelihood of Wang Yang succeeding.
Following the September 3 parade, the most significant event for the Communist Party is the Fourth Plenary Session scheduled for October. This meeting will determine Xi Jinping’s fate, amid the current turbulent undercurrents and intense factional struggles within the Party.
Overseas commentator Wang Youqun analyzed that following the September 3 parade, purges within the military are still ongoing, with key trends worth monitoring.
Firstly, 57-year-old Central Committee member of the 20th Congress, Zhong Shaojun, is rumored to be retiring. Secondly, General Wang Chunning and four other generals have been sacked. Lastly, the military’s “elimination of malign influences” and “backward examination of the past nine years” indicate a broader and deeper scope to the military cleansing.
Wang Youqun emphasized that with Xi Jinping serving as Chairman of the Central Military Commission for 13 years, Zhong Shaojun had been by his side for 11 years, responsible for managing Xi’s military affairs. Now, with Zhong Shaojun completely exiting, this situation reflects poorly on Xi Jinping.
Commentator Li Muyang stated, if Zhong Shaojun were to leave the military, it might signal his further downgrade. If this information is accurate, it signifies a weakening of Xi Jinping’s power and hints at potential drama at the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session in October.
In his program, “Qiangnei Putongren” pointed out that Xi Jinping’s military support has been entirely stripped away, and he no longer commands any Communist Party generals. Zhang Youxia and Liu Yuan have not only marginalized Xi Jinping within the military but have also begun removing Xi Jinping’s influence.
However, in terms of political power, Xi Jinping’s allies haven’t been entirely purged yet; only a small faction has been removed, such as Li Ganjie, Ma Xingrui, Liu Jianchao, and Wang Lixia. The core team around Xi Jinping involving Cai Qi, Li Qiang, Wang Huning, Wang Yi, and others remain untouched, pending adjustments at the Fourth Plenum.
When we integrate the aforementioned analyses and revelations, the rumored showdown between Zhang Youxia and Xi Jinping in September sounds credible before the Fourth Plenum.
“Xiaoshuojia” presented an analysis on September 17, suggesting another possible reason Zhang Youxia temporarily confined Xi Jinping was to secure personnel appointment powers within the military before the Fourth Plenum. After all, Xi Jinping still holds the position of Chairman of the Central Military Commission, making decisions on personnel appointments. With many of Xi’s military officers apprehended, it’s likely that Zhang Youxia has a list of replacements that necessitates Xi Jinping’s final approval. If Xi doesn’t agree, he may have been temporarily restrained.
Regarding political appointments, “Qiangnei Putongren” mentioned that Zhang Youxia didn’t show significant preference between Wang Yang and Hu Chunhua. However, Liu Yuan is firmly in Wang Yang’s favor. Liu Yuan’s opinion carries significant weight with Zhang Youxia, influencing both military and political matters. Zhang Youxia needs Liu Yuan’s assistance in stabilizing the military landscape, making Liu Yuan’s opinions crucial.
“Qiangnei Putongren” also underscored that for the sake of Communist Party stability, Wen Jiabao, Li Ruilan, Zhang Youxia, and Liu Yuan feel they have done their utmost. They now hope that Wang Yang will assume the General Secretary position, kickstarting political system reforms. However, if Hu Jintao supports Hu Chunhua’s direct succession, Wen Jiabao will exit the central decision-making body of the Party and retire in Hong Kong. Likewise, Wang Yang will exit the central decision-making body and return to Anhui to be with his elderly mother.
The “central decision-making body of the Party” mentioned here was established in June of this year, led by Wen Jiabao, bypassing the Communist Party’s Politburo Standing Committee and Xi Jinping, becoming the current highest interim power structure of the Communist Party.
“Qiangnei Putongren” highlighted that all members of the Political Bureau must now seek guidance and report back to the “central decision-making body of the Party,” represented by Wang Yang. Xi Jinping has turned into a mere puppet, solely relying on Liu Yuan for security. Xi Jinping’s office director, Han Shiming, was arrested by the military for resisting a takeover. Currently, the Communist Party Central Authority has quieted down, with no one daring to challenge the authority of the “central decision-making body of the Party.”
However, regarding whether Xi Jinping will be removed at the Fourth Plenum, there are differing opinions between Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao, Zhang Youxia, and Liu Yuan.
In his analysis, “Qiangnei Putongren” believed Hu Jintao, under the guise of party unity, felt Xi Jinping could serve as a puppet until the 21st Congress’s transition.
Wen Jiabao, Wang Yang, Zhang Youxia, and Liu Yuan, on the other hand, oppose Xi Jinping staying in power until the 21st Congress. Wen Jiabao and Wang Yang primarily consider the economic implications, sensing a lack of market confidence if Xi Jinping remains. Zhang Youxia and Liu Yuan view the situation from a security perspective, believing that not removing Xi Jinping poses a dangerous threat. This parallels the “Coup at the Gates” scenario during the Ming Dynasty: if Xi Jinping were to ally with a military figure with ambitions and assassinate Zhang Youxia, the military situation could dramatically reverse overnight. Therefore, as long as Xi Jinping remains in power, Zhang Youxia and Liu Yuan cannot rest.
The power struggle in Zhongnanhai is escalating, and the September battle between Zhang Youxia and Xi Jinping isn’t merely a military chess match but has far-reaching implications for the survival of the Communist Party’s regime. As the curtain rises on the Fourth Plenum, will Xi Jinping be completely overthrown, or will he linger as a puppet? Who will succeed Wang Yang and Hu Chunhua? The answers to these questions will deeply influence China’s future trajectory.