Last weekend’s rainfall in the Los Angeles area may mark the end of this water year (November to March), as California is now entering the dry season, increasing the risk of wildfires in the Golden State.
Two major fires in January left Angelenos on edge, and even though they have been extinguished, the risk of wildfires in California remains high. According to a recent forecast by AccuWeather, some parts of California will face the highest level of wildfire threat by autumn.
The 2025 U.S. Wildfire Outlook released by the meteorological service last week shows that from September to November this year, the highest wildfire risk areas in the U.S. are mainly concentrated in central and northern California, classified as “extremely dangerous”. During the same period, Southern California also faces a “high risk” but lower than Northern California. In the summer months of June to August, the entire state of California faces a moderate fire risk. Southern California, Nevada, and parts of the Arizona border, as well as the northern region near the Oregon border, will all experience an increased risk of wildfires.
Forecasters warn that the risk of wildfires throughout California will increase this autumn, especially in the northern regions, largely due to significant rainfall in Northern California during this water year. From last November to this March, influenced by the “La Niña” weather phenomenon, Northern California experienced multiple rounds of rain, with the North Bay area seeing 130% more rainfall than the yearly average.
According to the Western Fire Chiefs Association website, wildfires in California typically occur from May to December, but the start and end of the season can vary due to factors such as temperature, rainfall, and human activities. Human activities pose a greater risk of wildfire ignition compared to dry weather conditions, with data from the association indicating that human-caused wildfires account for 90% of all wildfires.
AccuWeather senior meteorologist Paul Pastelok stated that the abundant rain and snow in Northern California during the winter nurtured dense vegetation, which will dry out in the dry season and become fuel for autumn wildfires. He further mentioned that the strong marine moisture layer over the California coast this summer can help reduce the risk of wildfires, but come midsummer, agricultural areas inland may dry up, leading to sporadic fires. Additionally, wildfires may occur in Northern California in the mid to late summer. As for the risk of wildfires during the Santa Ana winds season from October to January, it’s still too early to predict.
In response to the January wildfires in Los Angeles, Governor Newsom expedited wildfire prevention construction projects statewide, temporarily suspending some environmental regulations to complete specialized projects before the peak wildfire period. California has also invested $25 billion to strengthen and implement the Governor’s Wildfire and Forest Resilience Action Plan, aimed at reducing wildfire hazards.
However, wildfires remain difficult to avoid. AccuWeather predicts that the total area burnt by wildfires in California this year could reach 1.5 million acres, exceeding the historical average data from 2001 to 2020 by 500,000 acres. As of April 21, California had already experienced 851 wildfires, consuming over 60,000 acres.