India’s general election concluded on Saturday, June 1st, with exit polls indicating that Prime Minister Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its alliance are expected to secure a significant victory and continue to govern. This suggests that the performance of the ruling coalition will surpass the expectations of most analysts.
The largest democratic exercise in the world began on April 19th and ended on June 1st, aiming to elect 543 members to the lower house of the parliament.
According to reports from Reuters, most exit polls predict that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the ruling BJP, is likely to secure a two-thirds majority in the 543-seat lower house. In reality, the NDA only needs to secure 272 seats to achieve a simple majority. Obtaining a two-thirds majority would allow the government to make significant amendments to the constitution.
The summary of five major exit polls anticipates that the NDA could win between 353 to 401 seats, a figure that could boost the financial markets when they reopen on Monday. In the 2019 elections, the NDA won 353 seats, with the BJP alone securing 303 seats.
Three out of the five polls suggest that the BJP alone may surpass its 2019 tally of 303 seats.
The opposition alliance led by Rahul Gandhi’s Congress party, called the INDIA alliance, is expected to secure between 125 to 182 seats.
However, results from exit polls conducted by polling agencies are not always completely accurate. Analysts point out that conducting surveys effectively in a vast and diverse country like India presents a challenge.
After the voting concluded, Prime Minister Modi, in his first statement, announced victory without referring to the exit poll results. He stated on the social media platform X, “I can confidently say that the people of India have once again elected the NDA government in record numbers.”
Pre-election surveys suggested that the BJP would comfortably retain its majority. However, with the intense campaign by the INDIA alliance, doubts arose about the level of competition, leading many political analysts to predict that the BJP’s margin of victory would be smaller or similar to that of 2019.
The Election Commission of India will formally begin counting votes on June 4th, with the election results expected to be announced on the same day.
If the exit poll predictions are accurate, Modi and the BJP have been in power since 2014 and are set to continue for a third consecutive term, with Modi likely to once again assume the role of Prime Minister.