Hello everyone, welcome to “Financial Extraordinary Way”. The new week has begun, and this week’s major financial events include the first debate between He Jinli and Trump (Donald Trump) tomorrow, the release of a series of economic data from last month by the United States, and Apple’s event on Monday. There has been a lot of talk about Apple events related to electronic technology programs, so I won’t go into detail here. What does the presidential candidate debate have to do with finance? It has a significant impact. The future economic direction of the United States will be determined by the country’s future governance principles and important national policies.
Today’s focus: Musk’s statement: immigrate to Mars within 20 years! The joys and sorrows of August employment data, Federal Reserve cautiously lowering interest rates! Crazy low prices for hairy crabs, the tricks behind the “crab card”! Trump VS He Jinli, what do economists say? Chow Tai Fook, Chow Sang Sang going crazy closing stores!
Before discussing the performance of the U.S. economy, let me quickly mention a few more financial news. Currently, there are reports that Tesla’s market share in the Chinese electric vehicle market has dropped from 9% a year ago to 6.5% in July this year. In response, Musk replied that those who believe these reports are foolish as the Tesla Shanghai factory is operating at full capacity.
In addition, the artificial intelligence hardware giant Intel recently announced that they will commission TSMC to produce all chips below 3 nanometers.
According to the Financial Times, the new generation iPhone 16 from Apple uses ARM’s latest V9 chip design, marking Apple’s latest step in introducing artificial intelligence features to smartphones. ARM has stated that the licensing fee for V9 is double that of the previous generation V8, which may also be one of the reasons for the high price of the iPhone 16.
On September 9, the U.S. House of Representatives voted on “The Biosecure Act”, which aims to protect U.S. national security by limiting business dealings between federal agencies and foreign biotechnology companies. The act specifically names five Chinese pharmaceutical companies, including WuXi AppTec, WuXi Biologics, BGI, BGI-Genomics, and BGI’s subsidiary Complete Genomics.
Chow Tai Fook’s second-quarter retail sales fell significantly by 20% compared to last year. Retail sales in mainland China declined by 18.6%, while in Hong Kong, Macao, and other markets, they fell by 28.8%. Chow Tai Fook closed 180 stores in the first half of this year alone.
Chow Sang Sang’s situation is equally pessimistic. In the first half of this year, Chow Sang Sang’s net profit fell by 36%, reaching only 526 million Hong Kong dollars. Although they opened 25 new branches in the first half of the year, they also closed 47 branches simultaneously.
Next, let’s focus on a few major news items. Firstly, there is today’s debate between Trump and He Jinli.
Last Friday, the U.S. released the August non-farm payroll data, which was not very good, with only 142,000 new jobs added, lower than the expected 161,000.
The U.S. stock market subsequently fell in response. In addition to concerns about economic recession, with the election entering its final stages, uncertainties about the future have also led to an uneasy atmosphere in the market. The important focus of tonight’s debate is domestic economic policy, including inflation, tariffs, corporate and individual taxes, housing, and immigration.
Trump’s economic policy still focuses on imposing tariffs. He has been outspoken since the beginning of the campaign about imposing tariffs of 10% to 20% on all foreign goods, especially targeting China, he will further increase tariffs. Meanwhile, He Jinli advocates restrictive tariffs and continues the moderate trade policies of the Biden administration.
Economists point out that higher tariffs may have a more significant negative impact on economic growth and may further push up inflation.
Secondly, taxation is also a major issue. Both parties currently view tax reduction as a campaign strategy, but they differ in their approach to corporate tax cuts. He Jinli proposes “Rewarding Work, Not Wealth,” raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% and increasing the minimum tax rate.
Trump legislated in 2017 to reduce the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, this policy is set to expire next year, so Trump’s tax policy is very clear: continue the low corporate and individual tax policies and continue to cut corporate taxes.
In terms of housing policy, He Jinli’s plan is more radical; she advocates for the construction of 3 million affordable housing units while significantly increasing government housing subsidies. Trump, on the other hand, does not support government housing subsidies.
Additionally, in terms of energy policy, He Jinli hopes to increase the market share of clean energy by increasing investment in new energy and government subsidy programs; while Trump claims that if he were to enter the White House, he would consider canceling the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit. Overall, He Jinli is more radical in domestic economic policy, while Trump is more radical in overseas economic policy.
Last Saturday, Musk tweeted: “We will launch a starship to Mars in 2 years, achieve manned Mars flight in 4 years, and establish a settlement on Mars in 20 years!”
As a result, the responses to Musk’s tweet were varied. Some mocked Musk, saying, “Don’t dream big anymore, okay?”; some excitedly took astronaut photos of themselves, indicating they are ready!; while some pessimistic netizens expressed doubts whether they would live to see that day. Some even angrily questioned, “Didn’t you say you would send humans to Mars within 10 years back in 2011? It’s been so long, and I haven’t even been to the moon yet!”
Facing the various opinions of netizens, what kind of person is Musk? With a calm smile on his face, he updated everyone on the latest developments in research and development: SpaceX is developing a fully reusable launch rocket, the economic feasibility of which is crucial because the key to colonizing Mars lies in reducing transportation costs. Currently, the cost of sending one ton of material to Mars is as high as $1 billion, while Musk’s goal is to reduce the cost to $100,000 per ton. To establish a self-sufficient city on Mars, this implies that we need to achieve a leap forward in technology.
Finally, Musk expressed full confidence, stating: “Although this challenge is daunting, it is by no means impossible!” His tweet exudes pride in every word. By the way, in the last episode, I detailed many interesting stories about Musk’s SpaceX and Boeing, so for those who missed it, be sure to check out last Thursday’s show.
Of course, regarding the SpaceX series being developed for colonizing Mars, due to time constraints, I cannot delve into it further. In the future, if there is an opportunity, I will discuss Musk’s specific plans and the current progress on the technical level.
As for whether it will truly be successful in launching a starship to Mars by 2026, and whether it will land on Mars by 2028, let’s wait and see! As for Mars colonization in 20 years… let’s first get our travel plans for next year in order!
Additionally, according to reports, Musk’s personal assets are expected to reach $1 trillion around 2027, becoming the world’s first “trillionaire.” Currently, Musk’s wealth stands at $251 billion, and according to Bloomberg data, his wealth is growing at an average rate of 110% per year. If he can maintain this growth rate in the coming years, he will become a trillionaire by 2027.
The U.S. Department of Labor released the August non-farm payroll report last Friday (September 6), adding 142,000 new jobs, far below the market’s expected 164,000, but significantly higher than the prior revised 89,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in August fell slightly to 4.2%, showing a mix of joys and sorrows. So, what does this number really mean, and how will it affect the Fed’s interest rate cut?
The addition of 142,000 new non-farm jobs has left economists somewhat disappointed, especially with a 24,000 decrease in manufacturing jobs, a stark contrast to the expected decrease of 2,000 jobs, indicating that the U.S. labor market is still underpowered.
Furthermore, the non-farm employment figures for June and July have been significantly revised downwards, with July’s data revised from 114,000 to 89,000, highlighting the fatigue in the U.S. job market and the looming shadow of an economic recession.
Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Strategist at Bank of America, stated after the August data was released: “The probability of a hard landing for the U.S. economy is widely underestimated; to achieve a soft landing, the non-farm payroll figure should be between 150,000 and 175,000, and the monthly wage increase should not exceed 0.1%. However, in reality, such levels have not been reached, suggesting that achieving a soft landing for the economy remains a challenge.”
However, he also pointed out that the current situation is not entirely pessimistic. The American Institute for Supply Management’s index indicates there has not been a significant decrease in job vacancies in the United States. In comparison, the U.S. government’s sentiment is more optimistic.
U.S. Acting Secretary of Labor Sue Armstrong: “From all indicators, whether achieving the so-called soft landing is possible, we believe the economy has reached a stable cruising level.”
Moreover, the unemployment rate in August dropped slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%.
Senior Analyst at Bankrate, Mark Hamrick: “A few years ago, our job market was very hot, the unemployment rate dropped to the lowest level in decades, 3.4%. Although the unemployment rate has since started to rise slowly, the current unemployment rate is still at a historically low level, 4.2%.”
Therefore, the current economic data clearly provides momentum for the Fed to cut interest rates, setting the stage for a likely rate cut in September, but it is far from reaching a point where the Fed would aggressively cut rates.
Senior Analyst at Bankrate, Mark Hamrick: “The issue now is not just in September, but in the next few months or even a year, how much the Fed will cut rates.”
The Fed’s next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for next Wednesday, September 18, with the latest key inflation data to be released before that, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for August, which will ultimately determine the Fed’s rate cut next week.
When it comes to the slowdown in U.S. employment, what the average person cares most about is whether it’s becoming harder to find a job and if they can keep their job. For a long time, people have believed that having a college degree is the key to securing a stable, high-paying job, but there is another shortcut that many people may not have noticed, and that is “vocational schools.”
In recent years, a new trend has quietly emerged in the United States, where some young people seem to have found a more suitable career path, allowing their efforts to yield quite good returns.
Bart Taylor, a lecturer at Texas A&M University: “Success should not be measured by the color of the collar. Due to the lack of skilled labor in trade and technical jobs, we have seen the impact of economic demand, requiring more labor in these areas.”
Data from the National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) shows that over the past five years, the number of undergraduate bachelor’s degree students in the United States has declined, while the number of students attending vocational schools has increased. In addition to offering more practical job programs, the main reason for this trend is the lower cost of education.
Bart Taylor, a lecturer at Texas A&M University: “By attending vocational school, you won’t have the student loans that come with a college education.”
Moreover, the perception of blue-collar jobs seems to have changed after the epidemic.
President Biden: “This (Philadelphia) shipyard has implemented an apprenticeship program that provides skills training for such jobs, where workers’ annual income can reach up to $100,000 without the need for a college degree.”
Steve DeWitt, Deputy Executive Director of the Association for Career and Technical Education (ACTE): “The federal and state governments have made large investments in infrastructure, so you’ll see many job opportunities in the construction field. In recent years, there has been a noticeable increase in the recruitment of young people who have received professional vocational training. While this trend aligns with economic development, experts caution that maintaining a moderate balance is essential for both individual career development and societal employment distribution.
Texas A&M University lecturer Bart Taylor: “After high school, even if you don’t have a college degree, you can get a high-paying job. Yes, this is absolutely true, but we also need leadership skills and education to match it. After a few years, do you really think you will continue to do this job until retirement?”
A “horror comedy” film that combines elements of comedy and horror films, the “horror comedy” film, just released this past weekend, confirmed its successful production by topping the box office in North America, overtaking “Deadpool and Wolverine,” which had held the top spot for several weeks, dominating the North American theaters. Now, let’s take a look at the “Box Office Top List.”
Although it has been lagging behind so far, the drama film “Love, Stop Here” continues to hold its ground; this past weekend it earned $3.8 million at the box office, ranking fifth on the charts.
The highly anticipated seventh installment of the “Alien” series, “Alien: Deadly Ship,” has shown a significant lack of momentum; this week’s box office was only $3.9 million, dropping from last week’s second place to fourth; meanwhile, last week’s fourth-place film, the biographical film “Reagan,” moved up one spot to third place with a box office performance of $5.2 million.
Having reigned as the box office champion for five consecutive weeks, the Marvel R-rated blockbuster “Deadpool and Wolverine” finally gave up the top spot this week with a box office take of $7.2 million, bringing the film’s total box office in North America to $614 million.
The biggest winner of the past weekend was the horror comedy film “Strange Grandmaster 2,” which returned to the big screen after 36 years; its first weekend box office reached $110 million, setting the second-highest opening weekend box office record for a film in September. Interestingly, the first installment, “Strange Grandmaster,” which premiered in 1988, also unabashedly took the top spot in the box office, reigning over the North American theaters.
Recently, two popular live streamers in China, Xinba and Little Yang Ge, have been engaged in fierce battles, revealing a “jungle plot” in front of everyone. Today, I will talk about this matter with you. I want to remind friends who like hairy crabs that the time of Yangcheng Lake hairy crabs is near, and there are many tricks when buying Chinese hairy crabs online. After watching this episode, you will understand many of these tricks, so be careful when buying such products online.
So, why did these two top live streamers get into a fight? The reason is Yangcheng Lake hairy crabs. Recently, Xinba and Little Yang Ge simultaneously promoted a brand of Yangcheng Lake hairy crabs called “Mrs. Crab.” Xinba’s selling price was much lower than Little Yang Ge’s, resulting in Little Yang Ge reporting him, saying he was selling them too cheaply and questioning how Xinba could make a profit of $100 per order. Things escalated as Xinba, not one to back down easily, continuously targeted some questionable aspects of Little Yang Ge’s company, “Three Sheep” in the past, and also hyped up rumors such as “Three Sheep’s female anchor and executives having an affair,” which are not the topics we care about.
What we care about is the Yangcheng Lake hairy crabs. According to reliable sources, they both indeed sell different specifications of hairy crabs, as these were negotiated several months ago. Xinba sells one specification of Yangcheng Lake hairy crabs, while Little Yang Ge sells another. Different specifications mean different weights, and thus naturally different prices. So, how did this turn into a situation where they fought over prices, well, “two of a trade are enemies,” right?
In fact, behind this wave of net celebrity battles, what is more worth paying attention to is the story of the Yangcheng Lake hairy crabs. According to data from Chinese enterprise information search platforms, there are currently 8,038 Chinese companies related to Yangcheng Lake hairy crabs, mostly concentrated in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, with nearly seventy percent in Jiangsu. Suzhou is the headquarters of the Yangcheng Lake Hairy Crab Industry Association, and according to information they released, using the water system of Yangcheng Lake to cultivate hairy crabs requires the female crab to weigh more than 125g, and the male crab to weigh more than 150g to be considered mature. Just to clarify, one liang is approximately 50g, so 150g equals about three liang.
Crabs prefer cooler water temperatures, and with higher average temperatures in China this year, the crab yield will not be too good. If the water temperature is too high, the crabs are more likely to lack oxygen, affecting their feeding and other activities. In the areas where crabs are raised, they need to consistently add water plants to provide shade for the crabs. Therefore, this year’s crab yield is not expected to be high, and the prices are unlikely to be cheap.
Speaking of the critical point, I want to talk about this brand of Yangcheng Lake hairy crabs, “Mrs. Crab.” After losing its membership in the industry association, “Mrs. Crab” can no longer use the anti-counterfeiting special label of Yangcheng Lake hairy crabs. Per an insider at “Mrs. Crab,” the company’s crabs sold are mostly not authentic Yangcheng Lake hairy crabs, but mainly Jiangsu lake crabs with limited production, and the prices are relatively high. Even after a discount, a crab box ends up costing over a thousand yuan.
Additionally, reports indicate that currently, there are too few truly authentic Yangcheng Lake water areas, and the crab yield is not high. In reality, autumn crabs do not taste bad, so why insist on eating specifically Yangcheng Lake crabs? Crabs from other regions are also delicious.
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