At the beginning of the new year, the official stance of the Chinese Communist Party on the economy is to continue to improve steadily. However, the daily experience of ordinary people cannot support the optimistic macroeconomic data.
Recently, a netizen pointed out through personal observation that the economic situation in Beijing is visibly declining, and Guangdong, the province with the largest economy in China, has already confirmed its inability to achieve the annual target of 5% growth. The growth rate last year was around 3.5%. What is the actual economic situation in China? Where does the difference between macro and micro come from?
Independent TV producer Li Jun stated on NTD’s “Elite Forum” program that on January 23, CCP leader Xi Jinping visited the Dongda Food Center in Shenyang, and three days later, an explosion occurred there. Online videos claim that a person in black planted a bomb and it exploded after they left. The explosion was quite powerful, resulting in multiple injuries. Was the incident targeting Xi Jinping? It can only be speculated as a possibility, perhaps as a form of emotional release or a sign of threat. The news has been censored domestically, as officials below are likely afraid to let Xi Jinping know about the incident.
Li Jun continued by mentioning an article circulating online where a man in Beijing recounted his bus ride on Route 998, observing the desolation in Beijing and feeling that it increasingly resembles a rural town. Many young friends who have come to Beijing in recent years have never seen the open, inclusive, and vibrant Beijing from 2000 to 2019. The vibrant street scenes with vendors selling chestnuts, roasted sweet potatoes, and candied fruits on sticks are no longer the same, with stores along the streets now clearing out at the year-end sales.
He sighed while walking through various neighborhoods, noting the decline in once thriving areas like Good Luck Street and Yihetang Road. The effects of the economic downturn are visible, with many businesses closing down and a sense of nostalgia for the past prosperity.
Moving on, he passed by Jinmi Road where a highway is being constructed, leading to Wangjing Village. The desolate scene of empty streets, deserted restaurants, and futuristic buildings highlights the current desolation. Companies like Alibaba and Momo have relocated from Wangjing, indicating a shift in economic activity.
The year 2024 saw a decrease in Guangdong’s economy, profoundly impacting China’s overall economic landscape. As a pioneer in China’s economic reform and opening up over the past forty years, Guangdong’s economic decline with only 3.5% growth last year poses a significant and lasting impact on China’s economy. The unemployment rate in Guangzhou hit up to 37% in 2024, pointing towards deeper issues in economic growth and sustainability.
In January 2025, manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) dropped to 49.1%, below the 50% dividing line, reaching a five-month low. The decline in exports signaled a challenging start to the year, especially for small and micro-enterprises, which account for 98.4% of all businesses.
Senior media personality Guo Jun highlighted the discrepancies in official data projecting a 5% growth rate in China’s economy last year. Most experts from private and international organizations estimate China’s actual growth to be lower, possibly around 4%. This lower growth rate signifies a shift in China’s economic model and poses challenges to its social structure and entrepreneurial ecosystem.
Innovative entrepreneurs play a crucial role in sustaining economic growth, with the absence of a robust legal system hindering their progress. The erosion of the rule of law undermines the foundation for innovative entrepreneurship, leading to a rise in opportunistic enterprises over innovative ones. This shift in economic dynamics could steer China towards a regressive path devoid of true revitalization.
The ongoing economic challenges have unveiled structural flaws in China’s system, with a growing divide between officials benefiting from the system and the diminishing prospects for entrepreneurs and the middle class. The current economic conditions could intensify societal tensions and mirror the collapses witnessed in previous communist regimes like the former Soviet Union.
In essence, while reforms or anti-reforms aim to redistribute societal interests, the extreme authoritarian nature of the system could face a breaking point. The pressure from a low or negative growth environment may intensify conflicts within society, potentially leading to a sudden collapse.
Guo Jun warned that the current path of the CCP mirrors a similar trajectory to former communist regimes, stressing the need for a systemic reevaluation to avoid a similar fate.
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