On November 28th, the official announcement was made that Miao Hua, a member of the Central Military Commission of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and director of the Political Work Department of the Military Commission, has been taken down from his position. Miao Hua was once a close confidant of Xi Jinping within the military, but his recent performance in the past two years may have posed a threat to Xi Jinping. Meanwhile, the situation in Beijing remains intricate and there have been reports circulating about some unfavorable news regarding Cai Qi, the chief manager of the inner circle. The “Elite Forum” received exclusive information that Ding Xuexiang is currently working with Wang Xiaohong to eliminate Cai Qi.
Veteran media figure Guo Jun stated on the “Elite Forum” program on NTD that the current figures in power are mostly loyal to Xi Jinping, especially those in key positions at the national level. Rumors now suggest that Zhang Yuxia has seized military power and is clearing out Xi Jinping’s influence within the military, which is a possibility.
In the past two years, there has been a shift towards political leadership in the CCP’s military, with a significant amount of time devoted to political education, primarily centered around Xi Jinping’s ideology. This involved establishing a system where the Chairman of the Military Commission is accountable, and setting up “two safeguards, two establishings” to reinforce Xi Jinping’s personal authority. These activities were all driven by the Political Work Department, causing significant contradictions with military officials who are responsible for military technology. This situation is reminiscent of the Mao Zedong era, where similar conflicts arose leading to figures like Peng Dehuai and Luo Ruiqing being purged for not prioritizing political work within the military.
Additionally, in recent months, several documents issued by the General Political Department have emphasized the strengthening of the traditional concept of democratic centralism within the military. This direction is believed to have been led by Miao Hua. However, this democratic centralism conflicts with Xi Jinping’s emphasis on centralized management at the national level.
Democratic centralism refers to a decision-making mechanism that incorporates a wide range of opinions while still maintaining unified execution. On the other hand, centralized management implies top-down decision-making where one person’s authority is paramount without room for dissent. In the past few years, the military’s slogan was centered around the Chairman’s responsibility system, emphasizing listening to Xi Jinping’s commands. However, these narratives have now changed, representing a significant shift within the CCP’s military.
Military affairs are highly specialized, and expecting military leaders not to participate in decision-making and simply follow Xi Jinping’s directives entirely is challenging. Despite any shortcomings, Mao Zedong, having come to power through warfare, commanded significant authority within the CCP’s military. However, the same level of authority is not automatically conferred to Xi Jinping. Currently, the CCP is facing numerous challenges, with many decisions remaining unresolved in various aspects such as the economy, diplomacy, and major policy areas, representing the biggest dilemma Xi Jinping is currently grappling with.
In the “Elite Forum,” Cai Shengkun, a senior Chinese news worker living in the United States, expressed a pessimistic view, suggesting that Xi Jinping may be undergoing a self-purging process. As he eliminates figures associated with previous leaderships, those around him are also attempting to expand their sphere of influence, something Xi Jinping cannot allow. He seems unwilling to permit anyone, even his confidants like Zhang Yuxia, to develop their own power base.
Last year, Xi Jinping began a purge within the Rocket Force, with the targets seemingly aimed at Zhang Yuxia. If Zhang Yuxia possessed the capability to resist or directly challenge Xi Jinping at that time, it is believed he would have done so to prevent Xi’s unusual actions. Despite making some concessions following the Third Plenum due to criticism from older party members, driven partly by economic hardships, there is little indication that Xi Jinping’s hold on power is weakening significantly.
During the Third Plenum, older party members indeed criticized Xi Jinping, although this criticism was constructive rather than malicious. By the time of the 20th National Congress, it was clear that the elders had lost their influence, having been neutralized through various means. This consolidation enabled the dominance of the Xi faction within the top leadership, with previous factions like the Jiang and Tuan groups having ceased to exist.
Furthermore, no elder is entirely clean, with Xi Jinping holding all the cards and able to negotiate terms with them. Even during the constitutional amendments around the 19th National Congress, where seven Standing Committee members initially dissented, Wang Qishan managed to persuade them all to acquiesce, indicating nobody is free from scrutiny.
As seen during the Third Plenum, the elders earnestly advised Xi Jinping to avoid tipping the boat, as they are all in the same boat together. Some apparent concessions made subsequently were not aimed at reducing Xi’s power. Presently, no one within the party or among the elders dares to challenge Xi’s authority outright; any sign of dissent is swiftly dealt with, maintaining Xi’s dominance within the hierarchy.
Xi Jinping, despite his lack of proficiency in various matters leading to many unresolved issues, has astutely wielded power to its maximum extent. There are no signs indicating his willingness to relinquish this power. Speculations about the Fourth Plenum suggesting that he would step down as General Secretary and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, retaining only a nominal role as State President, seem unlikely. Considering the enemies he has made over the years, Xi Jinping faces significant threats; thus, stepping down might endanger him and his family. Recognizing these risks, Xi is unlikely to yield his power easily.
Li Jun, an independent television producer, mentioned in the “Elite Forum” that recent online revelations suggest that Cai Qi’s son is in trouble. Speculation ranges from Cai Qi’s son being taken away by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection to being involved in a car accident. As a key figure close to Xi Jinping, a member of the Politburo Standing Committee and the head of the General Office, any issues surrounding Cai Qi’s son easily draw parallels to the past incident involving Liang Ke Aimu, the former head of the General Office, and his son, whose troubles led to Liang’s downfall.
Cai Shengkun added in the “Elite Forum” that since the 20th Congress, it appears that Xi Jinping has surrounded himself with a cadre made up solely of loyalists, ensuring that no one who could pose a threat to him has entered the core leadership. Within the Military Commission, two main factions exist: Xi’s so-called Shaanxi faction, represented by Zhang Yuxia, and another comprised of figures like He Weidong and Miao Hua, who were part of the Fuzhou faction in the military in the past. At the higher levels of the party, aside from the Fujian and Zhejiang factions, there is the so-called New Shanghai faction primarily led by Ding Xuexiang.
Furthermore, it was revealed that Ding Xuexiang and Wang Xiaohong are currently working together to eliminate Cai Qi. This collaborative effort stems from resentment held against Cai Qi by both Ding Xuexiang and Wang Xiaohong. Before the 20th Congress, Ding Xuexiang occupied the position that Cai Qi currently holds, as the Party’s fifth-ranking member responsible for party affairs and personnel. Wang Xiaohong, although elevated to the Political Bureau, faced issues later on. Both individuals were reprimanded by Xi Jinping due to actions taken behind his back, causing Wang Xiaohong to miss entering the Political Bureau and Ding Xuexiang to be appointed as a Vice Premier of the State Council, a role significantly different from his previous position.
This dynamic between Ding Xuexiang, Wang Xiaohong, and Cai Qi exemplifies the internal struggles that have intensified following the purges of the previous elder leadership during and after the 20th Congress. The events unfolding now suggest an internal power struggle within the CCP.
The extensive probe into a large group of senior military officers in the Rocket Force last year, exposing various issues, greatly shocked Xi Jinping. This investigation, linked to Miao Hua, who not only accepted bribes from these officers but continued engaging in illicit activities post the 20th Congress, eroded Xi’s trust in him. Particularly worrying for Xi Jinping is that Miao Hua promoted a significant number of individuals from the Navy and the 31st Army, forming factions within the military capable of marginalizing Xi Jinping, a concerning prospect for his authority.
Xi Jinping has made clear since assuming office that he will not tolerate anyone wielding influence, whether within civil society or even past dissenting leaders. With enemies abound, a sudden power shift for Xi Jinping is likely to provoke intense internal struggles. While Xi himself may manage to exit peacefully, his subordinates may not be as fortunate. Those engaging in unsavory activities over the years may find themselves in a precarious position if Xi were to step down, leading to potentially lethal power struggles.
Politics is both practical and fearsome; once personal interests are on the line, the outcomes can be unpredictable. Any significant changes to Xi Jinping’s position are unlikely to occur smoothly, as the numerous feuds and grievances that have accumulated over the years pose significant risks for those involved. The abrupt nature of political events may give rise to sudden and decisive actions culminating in unforeseen outcomes.
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