Xi Jinping is about to visit Russia. According to convention, whenever Xi goes out, someone will encounter trouble. This time, who will it be? It was revealed that the senior members of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) can no longer tolerate it and have made a resolution to pressure Xi Jinping to relinquish power and step down, and personnel arrangements have also been made. In addition, there were conflicting official and public accounts of the capsizing of four tourist boats in Guizhou.
The CCP’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on the 4th that Xi Jinping will visit Russia from the 7th to the 10th and attend the Red Square military parade in Moscow on the 9th. Prior to this, the PLA guard of honor had already arrived in Moscow and will also participate in the parade. Some patriotic supporters within the CCP in China are already excited about this news.
This will be Xi Jinping’s second time attending the Red Square military parade. Back in 2015, Xi Jinping attended once with Peng Liyuan. Therefore, Xi Jinping’s trip to Russia and participation in the parade is not news, so the public is not concerned about it. What the public is concerned about is who might encounter trouble while Xi Jinping is away.
Have you noticed that whenever Xi Jinping goes out for research or visits, the CCP often releases news of senior military officials encountering troubles. For example, last year when Xi Jinping went to Argentina to attend the G20 summit, the CCP announced the fall of Miao Hua.
Just after the recent CCP meetings, He Weidong was arrested. Following this, Xi Jinping went to Guizhou and Yunnan for inspection. The news of He Weidong’s arrest has been circulating for nearly two months now, and despite no official confirmation, He Weidong has not made any public appearances and has been absent from several important meetings.
In mid-last month, Xi Jinping visited three Southeast Asian countries to strengthen relations. However, as soon as Xi Jinping arrived at the first stop in Vietnam, the Air Force general personally promoted by Xi Jinping, the current Vice Chairman of the National People’s Congress, Yu Zhongfu, was arrested and his home was raided. Just a few days ago when Xi Jinping visited Shanghai for inspection, it was announced by the National People’s Congress of the CCP that Miao Hua’s status as a member of the National People’s Congress was revoked.
Is this all a coincidence or pre-arranged? Each time senior military officials of the CCP encounter troubles when Xi Jinping leaves Beijing. So, this time everyone is watching closely to see which senior CCP official will be implicated when Xi Jinping goes to Moscow.
If all members of the CCP leadership team resign from the organization and only CCP officials who have not left encounter problems, it shows the CCP is falling apart. Therefore, no matter which senior CCP official is implicated, for those hoping for the downfall of the CCP, it is a good sign.
In fact, even before Xi Jinping leaves Beijing, two people have already encountered troubles. According to Jiang Wangzheng, residing in Australia, Wang Tingkai, a member of the Tianjin Municipal Committee and Secretary of the Discipline Inspection Commission, and Cao Jianguo, Chairman of the China Aviation Industry Group, are under investigation.
First, let’s talk about Cao Jianguo, whose career has mainly been in the aviation field. His rapid career advancement began after Xi Jinping came to power, eventually leading to him becoming chairman and party secretary of the China Aviation Industry Group. He also served as a delegate to the 19th and 20th National Congresses of the CCP, a standing committee member of the 19th Central Committee, and was awarded the title of academician of the CCP Engineering Academy in 2019.
Since Xi Jinping came to power, he has paid special attention to the development of the aviation industry and military enterprises, which align with Cao Jianguo’s work area and objectives. His appointment as a delegate to the 19th and 20th National Congresses of the CCP indicates Xi Jinping’s high regard for and expectations of him.
There were rumors that at the Political Bureau meeting on March 31, Politburo members collectively questioned Xi Jinping about why the officials he promoted were “problematic.” Cao Jianguo being investigated now is clearly another blow to Xi Jinping.
Moving on to Wang Tingkai, he doesn’t have direct intersections with Xi Jinping, but he has close relationships with Jing Junhai and Li Hongzhong. Jing Junhai is a representative of the “Shanxi Army” in Xi’s faction. He worked in Shanxi for a long time and was instrumental in planning and promoting the expansion of Xi Zhongxun’s tomb into a massive cemetery covering over 40,000 mu (2,660 hectares).
Jing Junhai’s efforts to please eventually caught Xi Jinping’s attention, leading to continuous promotion. He rose from a local official to a Standing Committee member of the Shaanxi Provincial Committee and Minister of Propaganda, then appointed as Deputy Minister of the Central Propaganda Department, Deputy Secretary of the Beijing Municipal Committee, subsequently transferred to Deputy Secretary, Governor, and Secretary of the Jilin Provincial Committee and concurrently the Chairman of the Standing Committee of the Provincial People’s Congress.
In January 2018, Jing Junhai was appointed Governor of Jilin Province. Meanwhile, Wang Tingkai was promoted from Standing Committee member and Minister of the Propaganda Department of the Changchun Municipal Committee to Secretary of the Jilin Municipal Committee. In November 2020, Wang Tingkai was promoted to Deputy Governor of Jilin Province and eventually became the Secretary of the Jilin Provincial Committee in December, following Jing Junhai’s promotion to Secretary.
In June 2022, Wang Tingkai was transferred to Tianjin as a Standing Committee member and Secretary of the Political and Legal Affairs Commission, answering to another flattering official, Li Hongzhong. He was later appointed Secretary of the Discipline Inspection Commission in Tianjin.
Wang Tingkai’s promotions from Jilin to Tianjin were closely related to Jing Junhai’s recommendations and promotions. Wang’s further promotions in Tianjin likely also stemmed from Li Hongzhong’s endorsement to Xi Jinping.
The continuous troubles faced by Xi Jinping’s circle of officials reflect the changes in the upper echelons of power within the CCP. Mr. Cai Shenkun revealed in a program that there were messages from domestic “insiders” indicating that the Fourth Plenary Session of the CCP would witness a stunning change.
According to Cai Shenkun, the CCP’s veterans have reached their limits and are collectively pressuring Xi Jinping to abdicate. The political elders reportedly pressuring Xi include Wen Jiabao, Wang Qishan, and Zeng Qinghong. However, the information he has received suggests that Hu Jintao did not play a significant role in this pressure on Xi Jinping due to “health reasons” and the fact that “he cannot take a stand or speak out.”
This differs from previous information from other sources. Previously, several sources indicated that Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao wielded significant power and supported Zhang Yuxia’s acquisition of military power. Cai Shenkun had also received information earlier that three individuals born in 1942 held power, including Hu and Wen, as well as Hu Yaobang’s son, Hu Deping.
Clearly, Cai Shenkun’s different messages stem from various sources, which is not surprising given the opacity of the CCP and the sources of these messages, in addition to the possibility of misinformation. Thus, it is not necessary to be overly entangled in determining which information is accurate. The key point is that Xi Jinping’s loss of power and the investigations and accountability against him are underway.
Cai Shenkun stated, “The decision reached collectively by the elders is for Xi Jinping to officially exit the political stage, and at the latest, relinquish all power by the 21st Party Congress. Additionally, Xi Jinping’s authority in military affairs has been greatly diminished.”
According to information received by Cai Shenkun, there will be “new personnel changes” within the CCP. Among them, the current member of the CCP Central Committee and Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang will succeed Xi Jinping as General Secretary, Shanghai Municipal Committee Secretary Chen Jining will succeed as Prime Minister, the incumbent Prime Minister Li Keqiang will replace Zhao Leji as Chairman of the National People’s Congress, and Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing will fill the vacated position left by Ding Xuexiang.
However, Cai Shenkun also noted that there are still several months until the CCP’s Fourth Plenary Session, so the final outcome may still undergo many changes. He believes that the “overall changes will not deviate significantly.” With new leaders coming into power, there may be “new strategies or collective decision-making.”
Regarding Xi Jinping’s fate after stepping down, Cai Shenkun speculates that there may be a compromise solution, allowing Xi Jinping to “retain some dignity” and completely exit the CCP’s political stage.
This analysis and speculation by Cai Shenkun regarding Xi Jinping’s future are still uncertain. He believes that the CCP will not engage in a “fight to the death” within the party or create an “irreversible situation.” Whether this will be the case remains unknown to anyone, but will those who oppose Xi Jinping trust him? CCP political struggles have always been ruthless, so the classic dialogue from the movie “Let the Bullets Fly,” ‘It’s essential to me without you,’ may just as well play out in reality.
Regarding Ding Xuexiang, Cai Shenkun also discussed some aspects. Ding Xuexiang only worked with Xi Jinping for six months in Shanghai before being promoted to the director of the CCP Central Committee and a member of the Politburo, primarily because “Xi Jinping had him handle the relationship with the Jiang family in Shanghai.” If mishandled, the relationship with the Jiang family could significantly impact Xi’s power, even leading to him being removed from power in his first term.
Cai Shenkun also mentioned that the lineup set before the 20th Congress was for Ding Xuexiang to manage party affairs, personnel, and ideology, similar to Cai Qi’s role now. This arrangement was made with the intention for Ding Xuexiang to prepare to succeed. However, Xi Jinping later became dissatisfied with Ding Xuexiang and therefore transferred him to the State Council.
“The reason why Ding Xuexiang did not do well and Wang Xiaohong talked behind Xi Jinping’s back and did things that made Xi Jinping unhappy. These two accused each other, and this led to Ding Xuexiang not receiving the fifth number, and Wang Xiaohong also did not get into the Politburo.”
Now, shifting to the boat capsizing incident in Guizhou. On the 4th at 4:40 pm, four tourist boats capsized in the Sixuan River area of the Bijie Wujiang Baili Gallery scenic zone in Guizhou, leading to numerous casualties.
According to official reports, the “last missing person” was found at 12:35 pm on the 5th, but had no signs of life upon recovery. Among the 84 people who fell into the water, 10 have died, 70 are still being treated in hospitals without life-threatening injuries, while 4 were uninjured.
Authorities previously reported that, upon verification, the involved boats were not overloaded; they normally carried 40 people each. However, when mainland media attempted to reach the responsible individuals at the company involved by phone, no one answered, and they did not respond to text messages.
Shortly after the incident, local firefighting, emergency response, police, and medical personnel arrived at the scene and sealed off the area. Furthermore, a tourist received eight to nine official phone calls and added to their WeChat, instructing them to “confirm related matters,” essentially implying “rely solely on official information.”
Public and local residents have differing opinions on the official figures and statements. There have been reports online that all four boats capsized, with over 200 people falling into the water. One boat alone had over 80 people, and some of them were rescued and sent to hospitals.
A witness recollected that before the incident, tourists were on the boat enjoying the scenery along the shore, with both the upper and lower decks packed with people. When a sudden storm with hail hit, passengers on the upper deck hurried down to the lower deck for shelter, but the boat failed to reach the shore in time or take effective measures.
A local resident present at the scene believes the official death toll was likely underreported. He mentioned hearing that there were over 100 people, with four boats sinking, and that some two dozen individuals were still missing.
Five of this resident’s friends were on one of the boats as students aged sixteen to seventeen. Two are now missing, and the other three were admitted to the hospital with non-severe injuries.
One woman who was on one of the boats and disembarked just ten minutes before the incident occurred expressed surprise at the danger they unexpectedly faced. She said she had imagined the Wujiang River to be tranquil and beautiful, and she had never imagined associate it with a boating accident. She added that, faced with such a situation inevitably stirred feelings of being at sea.
A visitor from Guizhou who was on another boat at the time of the incident noted that the worst of the storm hit when their boat was in the middle of the water area. The captain immediately instructed everyone to open all windows to create ventilation and navigated through the storm for some time until stopping at a rocky cove. Meanwhile, boats behind and beside theirs capsized, and some people managed to climb out and awaiting rescue.
Another tourist from Sichuan shared with mainland media that half an hour before the weather changed, local meteorological departments issued a hailstorm orange warning at 2:40 pm, alerting to a possible hail disaster within the next six hours. However, the tourist boats in the scenic area were still operating normally without evacuation measures in place.
The scene at the site also revealed that most of the passengers who fell into the water were not wearing life jackets. Although life jackets were reportedly on the shelves above people’s heads even during the storm and hail, they did not put them on.
These translated and rephrased reports detail the political upheaval within the Chinese Communist Party as well as the tragic boat capsizing incident in Guizhou, capturing the intricacies of both events.