The ongoing escalation of the US-China trade war has led to nearly a complete halt in trade between the two major economies, according to economic experts. Hong Kong’s export volume has seen a significant decline, raising concerns that the city may fall short of its economic growth forecast of 2% for this year, painting a bleak outlook.
As reported by Hong Kong Radio on April 20th, Leung Siu Kee, a senior advisor at Hang Seng Bank, mentioned on a radio program that trade between China and the US has essentially come to a standstill.
Although the proportion of Hong Kong’s exports to the US has been decreasing in recent years, Leung Siu Kee noted that the city’s export volume has markedly dropped. He stated, “It is very likely that Hong Kong may not achieve the projected 2% economic growth this year, and the outlook is not optimistic.”
Furthermore, he pointed out that since the trade war initiated during the first term of US President Trump, many companies have begun seeking new markets. However, small and medium-sized enterprises, with relatively limited capabilities, still rely on the traditional American market. The current tariff measures will significantly impact enterprises dependent on the US market, posing high risks. Companies need to explore other markets to stabilize their sales.
In February of this year, Financial Secretary Paul Chan of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region delivered the 2025/26 Budget at the Legislative Council, predicting that Hong Kong’s economy would see a real growth rate ranging between 2% and 3% for the whole year.
Several banks and institutions have forecasted Hong Kong’s economic growth for 2025 to be around 2% to 2.5%. For instance, Bank of America Securities anticipates that the overall growth in 2025 for Hong Kong will slow down to approximately 2%.