The Chinese Premier, Li Keqiang, known as the “following premier” to the Communist Party leader Xi Jinping, has recently shown signs of a resurgence in his position. In March of this year at the “Two Sessions,” he was marginalized by the cancellation of the premier’s press conference, but he has now been recognized by foreign media as one of the top 100 people in 2024, sparking speculation about power struggles in Zhongnanhai. Experts believe that under Xi’s dominant rule, Li Keqiang being named one of the top 100 people may make him anxious, but there should be no security concerns.
On April 18, both Taiwan’s incoming President Lai Ching-te and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang were selected as Time magazine’s top 100 people of 2024. According to Time magazine, during his tenure as the Shanghai Party Secretary from 2017 to 2022, Li Keqiang implemented brutal COVID-19 lockdown measures that traumatized millions of people, severely damaging his hard-earned reputation as a pragmatist and supporter of business, yet impressing Xi Jinping. The introduction described him as the “chief executive officer (CEO) and chief operating officer (COO) that Xi Jinping reveres.”
Ding Shufan, Honorary Professor of the School of International Affairs at National Chengchi University in Taiwan, stated on April 19 that this recognition might make Li Keqiang somewhat apprehensive.
“From a cultural perspective, it should be Xi Jinping who receives this honor, not Li Keqiang. I think Li Keqiang may feel uneasy,” Ding said.
He believes it might be due to a lack of understanding of Chinese culture in the West, and this could potentially backfire and harm Li Keqiang instead.
“The fact remains that as long as Xi Jinping holds all the power, anyone being named as one of the ‘top 100’ will not please Xi Jinping.”
However, Ding Shufan believes this report is initiated by Western media, not actively pursued by Li Keqiang. Li Keqiang can argue that he didn’t seek out this honor, so Xi Jinping shouldn’t have any suspicions because of it.
Professor Yao Yuan from St. Thomas University of the United States also stated on April 19 that Li Keqiang’s inclusion in Time’s top 100 people by American media might seem like a way to praise him from the outside, making Li Keqiang appear powerful, but it won’t significantly affect the relationship between him and Xi.
“Li Keqiang might tell Xi Jinping that this could be a way for Western countries to sow discord between us. Xi Jinping would undoubtedly give him a way out.”
During last month’s CPC “Two Sessions,” whether it was the cancellation of Li Keqiang’s premier press conference or the amendment in the State Council Organizational Law to add clauses obeying Xi’s central orders, Li Keqiang’s position as premier weakened. However, on the same day that Time magazine named Li Keqiang one of the top 100 influential figures, Chinese state media also restored a certain level of promotion to Li Keqiang.
On April 18, Li Keqiang toured the enterprise pavilion at the 135th China Import and Export Fair. People’s Daily, an official CCP media outlet, reported that Huang Kunming and Wu Zhenglong participated in the event. Wu Zhenglong is the Secretary-General of the State Council and a standard protocol for Li Keqiang’s travel, while Huang Kunming is the Secretary of the Guangdong Provincial Party Committee. Previously, despite local leaders accompanying Li Keqiang during his provincial visits as seen on CCTV, state media did not report it, breaking customary practices and causing speculation.
Ding Shufan mentioned that when high-ranking officials visit regions, it’s customary for local officials to accompany them. The fact that official media now reports local officials accompanying Li Keqiang raises questions and may indicate Xi Jinping’s consideration of balancing between factions to solidify his position.
He explained that to maintain his absolute power, Xi Jinping makes the other six individuals compete among themselves. By alternately suppressing and praising them psychologically, they constantly fear his leadership dominance.
Yao Yuan analyzed that although Xi Jinping currently holds immense power, lower-level officials might start considering spreading out their risks and not solely relying on Xi, as no one can guarantee how long Xi will continue to rule China. Li Keqiang might be a probable successor if an unforeseen event were to occur to Xi.
Ding Shufan pointed out that based on current trends, Li Keqiang may safely complete his term as premier and step down.
On April 18, an American news blogger on Substack analyzed the risks of Li Keqiang as the second most powerful figure under Xi Jinping: “Today (April 18), he stimulated commercial activities at the Import and Export Fair with some very skillful gestures. But he holds the world’s most dangerous job.”
The article comments that as the nominal second-in-command to a confident CCP leader, it is not a position meant for the faint-hearted. They urged those unfamiliar with party history to search quickly on Wikipedia for the experiences of former second-in-command figures Liu Shaoqi and Lin Biao to understand their predicaments.
Ding Shufan pointed out that comparing Li Keqiang to Liu Shaoqi and Lin Biao is unreasonable. Unlike the initial positions and actions of Lin Biao alongside Mao Zedong, the current six Standing Committee members in the CCP are not similar to Lin Biao’s status and methods.
“While Lin Biao and Mao eventually had significant policy disagreements, Li Keqiang would not adopt a similar approach towards Xi Jinping.”
He explained that Lin Biao was one of the ten marshals who fought alongside Mao Zedong for power, whereas Li Keqiang’s rise to power came through Xi Jinping, so Li Keqiang wouldn’t dare show the level of disdain Lin Biao showed towards Mao, nor would he display a lack of respect towards Xi.
Yao Yuan suggested that given Xi Jinping’s methods of eliminating political adversaries, Li Keqiang, for his safety, must find ways to maintain relations. At least during the “Two Sessions,” Li Keqiang complied with Xi’s pressure. His current unscathed situation indicates that he has worked hard to ensure Xi believes he poses no threat.
The news blogger on Substack posted several images of Li Keqiang speaking while many people below were taking notes, commenting, “The number of note-takers is worrisome as it appears to be increasing.” However, the post also mentioned that although Li Keqiang enjoys driving, he has no intention of taking the wheel. He is content being a backseat passenger for now.
Ding Shufan emphasized that whether Li Keqiang’s status appears higher or lower is relatively unimportant, as the positions of the six current members of the Political Bureau Standing Committee are lower than during the Jiang and Hu eras. “During Xi Jinping’s era, it’s all about honoring Xi alone, and the other six individuals are subordinates of Xi.”
Editor-in-Chief: Li Renhe#