Russia and North Korea have deepened their relationship this week, while China is cautiously avoiding turning the Putin-Kim bilateral meeting into a trilateral one. Experts believe that Beijing is concerned about the situation.
On Wednesday, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and visiting Russian President Putin signed an agreement in Pyongyang, which includes a mutual defense commitment. This is considered one of the most significant meetings between Russia and an Asian country in many years, with Kim Jong-un describing it as an “alliance”.
Reuters suggests that Beijing is observing from the sidelines as its important ally, Kim Jong-un, shares “true thoughts” with another key ally, Putin.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated during a press briefing on Tuesday that the summit was a bilateral exchange between Russia and North Korea, without providing further details.
Putin has clearly expressed a desire to deepen Russia’s relationship with North Korea, linking it to the increasing Western support for Ukraine, and mentioning the potential for military and technical cooperation between Russia and North Korea.
Dr. Henryk Szadziewski from the Center for Pacific Islands Studies at the University of Hawai’i at Mānoa told reporters that Russia and North Korea are first seeking to openly demonstrate mutual support. However, North Korea is believed to be exchanging weapons and equipment for Russia’s assistance and technology.
According to a report by Reuters, Tong Zhao from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace mentioned that “China has some reservations about North Korea deepening military cooperation with Russia because it could undermine Beijing’s near-monopoly geopolitical influence over North Korea.”
“China is also cautious not to let outsiders perceive an actual alliance relationship between Beijing, Moscow, and Pyongyang,” Zhao added, “as it is not conducive to China maintaining pragmatic cooperation with major Western countries.”
Szadziewski explained to reporters that China will maintain a neutral stance outwardly and insist on a “non-interference” policy in other countries’ internal affairs, which is to be expected. However, China’s actions also align with its position against the United States.
Since North Korea relaxed border quarantine controls last year, trade with China has rebounded, but political contacts have been primarily with Russia.
Last year, Kim Jong-un made his first and only trip abroad since the COVID-19 pandemic to meet with Putin in Russia. This marked the first visit to the country by a world leader since North Korea opened its borders.
According to US and allied officials, along with UN sanctions monitors, Russia has unprecedentedly used ballistic missiles made in North Korea, prohibited by UN Security Council resolutions, to target objectives in Ukraine.
Shortly before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, China declared an “unlimited cooperation” relationship with Russia, but has refrained from directly providing weapons and ammunition for the war initiated by Russia.
China and Russia together blocked new sanctions against North Korea at the UN Security Council, but China abstained when Russia vetoed the extension of a group overseeing sanctions compliance.
An anonymous South Korean government official told Reuters that tension seems to exist between China and North Korea due to thousands of North Korean workers defying UN resolutions by staying in China.
China is North Korea’s largest trading partner to date, and the two countries signed a mutual defense treaty back in the 1960s.
Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center in Washington, explained to Reuters that this relationship is unlikely to change, but interactions between Kim Jong-un and Putin, along with Kim’s unpredictable behavior, bring new uncertainties for China.
“Unless there is a clear challenge to China’s stance and policies, I believe that China is willing to stand idly by and see how things develop,” she added, suggesting that deepening relations between Russia and North Korea could divert US attention from China.
However, she also noted that China does not want to be seen as part of a tripartite relationship, as “that would entail too much responsibility.”
Despite increasing conflicts with the US on foreign policy and trade issues, the US and Japan were China’s top two trading partners last year.
After Premier Li Keqiang discussed the North Korean nuclear issue with leaders of South Korea and Japan at a summit in May, North Korea publicly criticized China, which was a rare move.
As Putin visited North Korea, senior Chinese diplomats and defense officials visited Seoul on Wednesday.
Regarding the meeting, South Korea expressed concerns over Putin’s visit to North Korea on the same day, hoping that exchanges between Russia and North Korea would contribute to peace and stability in the region.
Niklas Swanstrom, director of the Institute for Security and Development Policy in Sweden, mentioned to Reuters that “China wants to expand trade, rebuild the economy, and they have larger concerns.”
As for why Putin is visiting North Korea now, Szadziewski told reporters that this is to demonstrate that Russia cannot be isolated internationally. However, the options for Russia’s partners appear limited, and North Korea also needs international support.
Szadziewski’s research focuses on Chinese intervention in Oceania and US policy in the Pacific Islands. He further analyzed that considering the long interval between Putin’s last visit and this one, this relationship appears to be a temporary measure, reminiscent of alliances during the Cold War.
He also stated that Putin’s visit to North Korea could escalate tensions in the East Sea, leading to a response from South Korea to strengthen the Indo-Pacific alliance with the US, further dividing the region into two camps.