In the context of China’s continuously declining birth rate, the pre-school education system is facing an unprecedented wave of contraction. Last year, the number of kindergartens nationwide decreased by 21,100, and experts estimate that up to 26,000 more may close by 2025.
Reports from mainland China indicate that the Chutian Century City Kindergarten in Changsha County, Hunan Province, officially closed its doors on July 1, 2025. The kindergarten, which had been in operation for 12 years, was once a relatively large private early childhood education institution in the area. Similarly, the Baihua Kindergarten in Yingde City, Guangdong Province, ceased operations on June 11, and in the Yüan District of Lu’an City, Anhui Province, 20 private kindergartens were closed all at once in May.
The widespread distribution of these closures indicates that the shutdown of early childhood education institutions is no longer isolated cases but a nationwide structural contraction.
According to data from the Chinese Ministry of Education, as of 2024, there were a total of 253,300 kindergartens nationwide, a decrease of 21,100 from the previous year, marking a record high in the number of closures in a single year.
According to a report from a financial magazine, education scholars predict that another 26,000 kindergartens may close this year (2025). If the trend continues, by 2030, the total number of kindergartens in the country will decline to 163,700, meaning that an average of about 15,000 kindergartens will disappear each year in the future.
Jing Yazhen, a kindergarten director with years of experience in early childhood education, is a microcosm of the industry’s struggles. She once led a childcare group with 489 employees, operating a total of 16 kindergartens with an annual revenue of 50 million yuan. However, in recent years, influenced by a significant decline in birth rates and market competition, she has had to close down 12 kindergartens, with only 4 struggling to remain in operation. The group faced financial difficulties a few years ago, accumulating debts exceeding 20 million yuan.
“I really hope to keep these remaining 4 kindergartens, but it’s really difficult,” Jing Yazhen admitted, stating that the current operating model is no longer sustainable, and the industry urgently needs to find new paths for transformation.
Senior kindergarten director Chen Lin, with 31 years of experience, also expressed her struggles to the financial magazine, saying, “It’s too difficult, maybe we won’t be able to hang on next year.” She used to operate 3 kindergartens but now only has 1 left, still facing the challenge of insufficient student enrollment. She recalled that between 2020 and 2021, there was almost no need to actively recruit students, as parents would queue up at the door, but after 2023, the situation took a sharp turn downwards, with only around 20 new enrollees compared to the 60 children graduating.
Despite various fertility and childcare subsidies policies rolled out by the central and local governments, the actual effects are not enough to offset the pressure of declining population.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of the Communist Party of China, the nationwide birth population in 2023 was only 9.02 million, a further decrease of 7.5% compared to 2022, marking the seventh consecutive year of decline. In some cities, the number of pre-school children has decreased by 30 to 40% from its peak, leading to the entire early childhood education industry facing an “enrollment crisis.”
In the next decade, many local schools may be forced to merge or close down due to insufficient student numbers.