Hong Kong local media reports that Standard Chartered Hong Kong maintains its forecast of 2% economic growth for the entire year, but it indicates that a revision may be necessary after further observation.
Senior economist at Standard Chartered Hong Kong, Zhou Hongli, mentioned that the local economy is improving. However, with the shift of inbound tourists towards experiential travel, the per capita consumption has not returned to pre-pandemic levels, which has also impacted high-end retail sales. Additionally, with the strength of the Hong Kong dollar, local residents are heading north for consumption, putting further pressure on local retail.
Zhou Hongli pointed out that due to the output-driven factors, Hong Kong’s latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) remains above 50, indicating an expansion. However, new orders and export orders have declined, coupled with the strength of the Hong Kong dollar against the US dollar, leading to competition in exports with mainland China and Japan, affecting the attractiveness of Hong Kong goods.
Regarding mainland China, Zhou Hongli stated that real estate plays a significant role in the economy. If the domestic property market can remain stable, it could help the overall economy amid restored confidence and positive wealth effects. It is expected that exports and industrial output will perform well this year. There are signs of stabilization in private investment, although cautious employment prospects may affect consumption. Nonetheless, it is anticipated that the annual growth target of around 5% can still be achieved.