Current Affairs Update: Syrian Rebels Capture Hama City, Russian Military Intervention?

Hello everyone, welcome to “Current Affairs Scan”. I am Jin Ran. Please subscribe to our channel, support us, like, comment, and share.

Today’s focus: Is Ukraine going to take action against Kim Jong-un? Secretly meddling in Syria; Syrian rebels capture Hama city, Turkish troops directly involved; Israel airstrikes Damascus? Budapest Memorandum, how wronged is Ukraine.

On Thursday, two major events happened that will impact the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war. And it should be considered as a symbolic event where these two world war hotspots are truly connected for the first time.

On December 4th, just as the Syrian rebels were attacking the important central city of Hama in Syria, no one expected Turkey to get directly involved behind the scenes. Footage emerged of Turkish troops boldly crossing the border into Syria, at the checkpoint of Azaz, a border city in Syria.

When I say no one expected, it’s because the Syrian rebel forces are currently advancing rapidly and do not really need foreign troops on the ground, as once foreign military enters, the nature of the Syrian civil war completely changes.

On December 5th, Syrian rebels entered Hama city. According to reports from Agence France-Presse, the rebels successfully surrounded the city from three sides, with intense fighting breaking out in the northeast, and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights in the UK cited that rebel tanks had entered Hama city.

The Syrian rebels clearly have strong weapon supplies, well-equipped with even portable anti-aircraft missiles, shooting down government helicopters over Hama.

While wars are often about strategies and weapons, sometimes overwhelming momentum can drastically shift the course of the conflict, as seen in the Syrian government forces’ lack of fighting spirit. Videos revealed government troops retreating along the M5 (Aleppo-Hama) highway, abandoning a large number of armored vehicles along the way.

The government’s 87th Brigade military base near Hama was abandoned, and after the rebels took over, they found at least 40 military and armored vehicles left scattered around.

If you look at the multitude of Russian planes left behind by the Syrian government forces at the Hama military base, abandoning dozens of military and armored vehicles seems like a small matter.

While some dare to abandon planes, others dare to fly them. How fierce are the Syrian rebels? They even managed to seize an abandoned Mi-8 helicopter, attempting to learn how to fly it by watching online videos. I didn’t understand what they were saying, but I heard a term that sounded like “YouTube”.

In a comical twist, while the regular army was suffering defeat, traffic police officers in Hama were armed and forced to confront the rebels, seen carrying AK-47 rifles in videos, looking hesitant and powerless.

Upon capturing Hama city, Syrian rebels were welcomed by cheering residents. There seemed to be minimal resistance in the city, with the traffic police likely realizing using their guns would disrupt traffic control and they were hesitant to direct traffic for tanks and armored vehicles.

With Hama city captured, the capital Damascus is now in danger. A look at the map shows it’s about 200 kilometers from Hama to Damascus, about a 2-hour drive, with the rebels now set to continue southwards to capture Homs city. Once taken, the land route between the Russian naval base in Tartus and reinforcements will be cut off. Interestingly, Russian forces made a swift exit, with two escort ships, an auxiliary ship, and a submarine leaving the Tartus base on December 2nd.

As Syrian rebels continue to cleanse Hama city, there was a dramatic explosion near Damascus International Airport on Thursday morning, triggering a raging fire. Reports from Lebanon’s Al-Manar TV attributed the explosion to Israeli airstrikes. Since 2013, Hezbollah’s forces have openly sided with the Assad regime in the Syrian civil war. It appears that Israel ignored Assad’s pleas for support.

However, Israel’s involvement in Syria is not new, but Ukraine’s intervention in the Syrian civil war is astonishing.

On December 4th, Ukrainian President Zelensky made a sudden statement: “Budanov reported Russia’s intentions and the situation in Syria in the near future – how changes in the balance of power in Syria can affect the global environment.”

Budanov is the director of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Agency. This 38-year-old intelligence chief is perhaps the most feared Ukrainian among Russians, as every time he appears on camera with a cold smile or makes a statement, serious consequences follow. Zelensky mentioning him suddenly and linking it to Syria definitely hints at more to come.

Recently, Turkish media revealed that Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Agency, regularly contacts Jaafari, leader of the core organization Sham Liberation Organization of the Syrian rebels. It seems Ukraine is not only making the Russian-occupied Crimea a key piece in future ceasefire negotiations but is now also striking a blow directly against Russia’s most important piece in the Middle East.

It’s important to understand that the Assad regime in Syria serves as Russia’s stronghold in the Middle East. If Russia sends troops to rescue, it will ease the pressure on Ukraine at the Russia-Ukraine front; if Russia refrains, Putin’s position in the Middle East will be jeopardized. It seems as previously mentioned, Ukraine has made a bold move outside the Russia-Ukraine chessboard.

What’s even more striking is that Budanov completely ignored Zelensky’s discussion on Syria and instead unexpectedly made a statement that would likely disturb Kim Jong-un. Budanov stated: “North Korea has become the main military ally of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Without their help, Russia would be in trouble.” He further added, “North Korea provides them with a large number of weapons. This is vital for them; without it, launching an attack or even maintaining the current frontlines would be very difficult.” Reports suggest that from January 30 to February 8 this year, a cargo ship named Lady R transported a large number of containers between North Korea and the Russian Federation. South Korea has revealed North Korea has sent about 6700 containers of ammunition to Russia in recent months. These containers can hold over 3 million rounds of 152mm shells.

Lastly, Budanov, with his trademark smirk, provocatively stated: North Korea is “a real problem”.

December 5th marks the 30th anniversary of the Budapest Memorandum, for Ukraine, this day 30 years ago planted the seeds of the bitter fruit of invasion Ukraine faces today.

In 1994, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine possessed the third-largest nuclear arsenal in the world. The number of nuclear weapons was astonishing – Ukraine had 130 UR-100N intercontinental ballistic missiles with six warheads each, 46 RT-23 intercontinental ballistic missiles with 10 warheads each, and 33 heavy bombers, totaling about 1700 warheads. In January 1994, Russia, the US, and Ukraine signed a trilateral agreement on Ukraine’s denuclearization. According to the agreement, Russia and the US were supposed to guarantee Ukraine’s national security.

On December 5th of that year, in Budapest, Hungary, the world’s nuclear powers agreed to provide security guarantees for Ukraine’s territorial integrity, in exchange for Ukraine renouncing nuclear weapons. This became the Budapest Memorandum, signifying Ukraine’s relinquishment of its weapons. What specific commitments did Western countries make?

The Budapest Memorandum’s commitments to Ukraine include five main points. Firstly, Russia, the UK, and the US must respect Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and existing borders. Secondly, Russia, the UK, and the US shall not use force or threaten force against Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Thirdly, none of the three countries shall use economic coercion to compel Ukraine into submission. Fourthly, if Ukraine becomes a victim or target of aggression with nuclear weapons, the UN Security Council should act and provide assistance. Fifthly, Russia, the UK, and the US pledge not to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine. It’s often said that the Chinese have the injustice of Dou E, please compare the current state of the Russia-Ukraine war and tell me, is there anyone more wronged than Ukraine?

On December 5th, Zelensky stated he had spoken with Lute, thanking her for chairing the Ukraine-NATO Council’s foreign ministers meeting in Brussels. Zelensky reiterated the importance of Ukraine joining NATO and ensuring timely logistical support for Ukraine’s combat brigades with ammunition, weapons, and equipment, as well as strengthening Ukraine’s defenses against Russian airstrikes this winter. Zelensky said, “Supporting Ukraine is essential not only for our country, but for all European partners, as the security of one country forms the foundation of security for all countries.”

Ukraine is fighting hard to keep its crucial bargaining chip – Crimea, which is occupied by Russia. Ukraine’s Navy Marine 36th Brigade has been engaged in intense battles with Russian forces in Crimea for a week, videos showing on December 3rd, Ukrainian forces destroyed three Russian BMP infantry fighting vehicles and a T-72 tank, eliminating dozens of Russian assault troops.

Recently, Ukrainian forces have started using precision-guided munitions provided by the US to destroy Russian frontline command posts in Crimea, hitting them decisively with each strike.

On December 4th, US Secretary of State Blinken announced that Ukraine will receive $50 billion from frozen Russian assets in the coming weeks to support its war efforts next year. On the same day, Kellogg, Ukraine’s special envoy appointed by Trump, stated on Fox News, “We support continuing to provide weapons to Ukraine. The more military support the Biden administration provides to Ukraine, the more influential Ukraine will be in negotiations with Russia.”

Both Russia and Ukraine are now seeking to gain the upper hand before Trump officially takes office, accumulating as many chips as possible for potential peace talks. How brutal is the frontline warfare? Experts have analyzed that often many new Russian recruits in the frontlines do not survive beyond 48 hours. And even the renowned Chinese internet star mercenary, Li Jianwei, known for his luck in avoiding danger, has apparently left the battlefield after enduring two 70-day stints, he’s said to have evacuated and no longer wishes to stay.

Alright, that concludes this edition of the “Current Affairs Scan”. We need your support, please subscribe to our channel, support us, like, comment, and share. If you’re willing to support us directly financially, we’d be even more grateful. Until next time.