The chance of who will ultimately take over the White House is likely to come down to the 93 electoral votes in seven swing states, spread across the southwest, midwest, north and south.
In this year’s November presidential election in the United States, it is not surprising what electoral votes the two major party candidates can secure in some deep blue and deep red states. However, the battleground states remain undecided.
In July, Republican presidential candidate and former president Donald Trump officially accepted his party’s nomination after surviving an assassination attempt. Later that month, a “political earthquake” occurred within the Democratic Party as President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from seeking re-election and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who eventually became the Democratic presidential nominee in August.
Swing states are those states considered to play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the presidential election, where the support for Democratic and Republican candidates is closely contested.
During each presidential election cycle, factors such as demographic changes and voter turnout variations might turn traditionally red or blue states into purple swing states.
For example, after Biden’s unexpected victory in Georgia in 2020 and Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock’s win in 2022, Georgia was classified as a swing state.
According to the campaign arrangements of both parties, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have made swing states a focal point of their campaigning. With less than 70 days left in the election season, they have been visiting swing states, organizing various events to promote their policies or ideologies.
The following are the seven swing states worth watching in the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
In 2020, Biden’s victory in Pennsylvania secured the “blue wall” of three states and the presidency. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin became the three “blue wall” states that helped Biden secure victory in 2020.
The term “blue wall” refers to the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
However, Trump broke the Democratic winning streak in Pennsylvania in 2016, and Biden also only won by a narrow margin of 1.2 percentage points in 2020.
Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes rank fifth overall, the highest number among the swing states.
Georgia is another example of how swing states evolve.
Biden’s victory in Georgia in 2020 marked the first time since President Clinton in 1992 that a Democratic presidential candidate won the state.
The voting rate and enthusiasm of Black voters played a critical role in Biden’s win, making the voting bloc a key factor in November’s election once again.
According to U.S. news analysis, North Carolina may lean towards the Republicans, but it remains a definite swing state.
Trump won North Carolina by only 1.3 percentage points in 2020.
Before withdrawing from the race, Biden made North Carolina his final stop on a swing state visit after his State of the Union address, with the hope that North Carolina could turn the tide and become the “Georgia” of 2024.
The state could also be a crucial choice for Kamala Harris.
Michigan has been a solidly Democratic state for decades, but becoming a battleground state is not surprising.
Michigan was one of the three “blue wall” states that supported Biden in 2020. However, Trump defeated former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016 and won the three “blue wall” states mentioned above.
Recent polls show that Michigan voters prioritize economic policies, with the state’s working class being a key demographic for both candidates.
Biden narrowly carried all of Arizona’s electoral votes in 2020, reversing the decades-long trend of Republican presidential candidates winning the state. Trump had won the state in 2016.
This shift in Arizona is due to changes in the state’s demographics, with immigration remaining a divisive issue, especially in 2024, making it a major topic for border states.
Wisconsin is the final “blue wall” state. Once considered a reliable blue Rust Belt state, Trump’s narrow victory in 2016 solidified its battleground status.
Subsequently, Biden’s narrow win in Wisconsin in 2020 against Trump reversed the trend.
Both major candidates have invested significant campaign time in Wisconsin in 2024 – for instance, Milwaukee hosted the Republican National Convention – showcasing the value of the state’s 10 electoral votes.
Four weeks later, Kamala Harris also held a large campaign rally at the same venue.
Nevada has the lowest number of electoral votes among swing states, but that does not diminish its importance.
Biden’s victory in Nevada in 2020 marked the Democratic candidate’s “four-peat,” but the margin of victory has significantly narrowed compared to Hillary’s win in 2016.
With Nevada being close to the southern border and having a population that is over 30% Hispanic, economic issues are more crucial for the state’s election than immigration, according to opinion polls.