Just ten days remain until the US presidential election on November 5th, and the race for the White House between Republican candidate Trump (Trump) and Democratic opponent Joe Biden is intensifying. On Saturday, October 26th, the two will continue their battle in the crucial swing state of Michigan, hoping to garner more voter support in the remaining week.
Biden’s lead in national polls has been gradually narrowing. According to the average polling data from The Hill/DDHQ, his lead over Trump has decreased to less than one percentage point.
Polling results from seven swing states show a tight race at present. These states have captured attention as the outcomes here are likely to determine the winner of the November election.
As of Friday night, October 25th, The Hill/DDHQ’s average polls indicate a tie between the two candidates in Michigan. In the other six swing states, Trump is currently leading. However, Trump’s margin in these states does not exceed two percentage points. Among the six leading swing states, three have a lead of less than one percentage point.
On Saturday, Trump and Biden both engaged in a fierce battle in Michigan. Former First Lady Michelle Obama will join Biden in a campaign event in the state while Trump also targeted Michigan, holding his own rally there. Michigan possesses 15 electoral votes, making it one of the most fiercely contested states among the seven swing states.
Given the extremely close race, there are differences in which candidate is slightly ahead, as indicated by various poll results.
Here are the current election scenarios in the seven swing states summarized by The Hill:
Currently, there are some discrepancies between these two states and the other swing states which work in Trump’s favor.
The Hill/DDHQ’s average polling data shows that former President Trump has a larger lead in these two states compared to the other swing states.
Poll analysis from FiveThirtyEight and Silver Bulletin also suggests that Trump is leading in North Carolina and has a lead in Arizona greater than in other swing states.
This year, the early voting turnout in Arizona is unusually high, nearing 80% of the 2020 levels.
The University of Florida Election Lab monitors early voting nationwide. The latest data from the lab shows a slightly higher voting rate among registered Republicans in Florida compared to four years ago.
Statistics show that so far, 42.1% of the votes cast in Arizona are from registered Republicans, while 35.4% are from Democrats. During the 2020 election, early voting by both party registrants was roughly the same.
It is worth noting that the Republican numbers may still rise as Trump has encouraged his supporters to vote early nationwide. Voters who do not belong to either party may play a crucial role in the election outcome in Arizona.
North Carolina is the only state Trump won in the 2020 election among the seven swing states. Democrats have won the state only twice in presidential elections in the past half-century in 1976 and 2008.
The Hill/DDHQ’s average poll results show Trump leading Biden by 1.5 percentage points in North Carolina.
In recent weeks, Democrats have complained that pro-Republican polling organizations skewed averages. However, respected surveys from Emerson College and Marist College in the past week both show Trump leading in North Carolina, albeit by only a two-point lead.
The unpredictability of this year’s election is particularly prominent in these two states.
Four years ago, Biden became the first Democratic candidate to win Georgia since President Clinton in 1992, albeit by a narrow margin.
The Hill/DDHQ’s average poll results show Trump leading Biden by 1.3 percentage points in the state. Trump supporters have long believed that the easiest path to victory is holding on to North Carolina, flipping Georgia back to its default Republican-leaning state, and securing the biggest swing state, Pennsylvania.
Georgia’s African-American population stands noticeably higher than in any other swing state, at about 33%. If these voters come out in support of Biden, he is likely to win the state.
Biden and former President Obama jointly attended a large rally in Atlanta on Thursday, October 24th, partly to boost voter turnout among African Americans in Georgia.
While Trump has the average poll lead in the state, the most recent Marist College poll in Georgia shows Biden leading by one percentage point among registered voters.
In contrast, Michigan has been unpredictable. Since the 1980s, only one Republican presidential candidate has won the state, Trump in the 2016 election. Biden had a lead of nearly two percentage points at his peak in Michigan this year, but that lead has since been erased.
In this state with the highest concentration of Arab American population, the White House’s policy on Israel, Gaza, and the broader Middle East region may affect Biden’s election prospects. Some unions have yet to provide the endorsement Biden hopes to see.
Winning these three states alone may not be enough for Biden to cross the finish line. However, if she can secure these three states, she only needs to win one more state out of the remaining four.
Nevada has not supported a Republican in a presidential election since 2004. Biden held a two-point lead over Trump in mid-September in the state.
But this polling advantage has diminished, and early voting data indicates more votes have been cast by registered Republicans, causing concern among Democrats. However, Biden hopes to win the state, in part due to the support she has received from the influential Culinary Workers Union in the state.
Wisconsin also remains difficult to predict. The state holds a strong labor tradition, and along with Michigan and Pennsylvania, is part of the “Blue Wall” states where the Democratic party has won for many years, with the exception of 2016.
In The Hill/DDHQ’s average polls, Trump holds a slight lead in Wisconsin by 0.4 percentage points. However, two other poll averages (from FiveThirtyEight and Silver Bulletin) show Biden ahead by a similar narrow margin.
Pennsylvania is the largest swing state with 19 electoral votes. Trump leads in the average polls from The Hill/DDHQ, FiveThirtyEight, and Silver Bulletin, but the margin against Biden is less than one third of a percentage point.
Biden hopes that crucial cities like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh will see high voter turnout, and she aims to gain more support from voters in crucial counties in the suburbs of Philadelphia with her selling point on the abortion issue.
If Trump wins the election in Pennsylvania, Biden’s prospects of winning the election will be very dim.