On October 1st, this year marked the 75th anniversary of the Communist Party of China’s rule in Beijing. Various exhibitions were held throughout the city with some places showcasing giant peaches symbolizing longevity. British media analysis suggests that the party leader Xi Jinping is concerned about how long his party’s rule will last.
On September 30th, the UK magazine “The Economist” published an article titled “Xi Jinping’s Fear of a Soviet-style Collapse Haunts Him at Night.”
The article mentions that when the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991, the Communist Party ruled Moscow for 74 years. The Chinese Communist Party has now surpassed the “Big Brother” Soviet Union, having been in power for one year longer. Xi Jinping is worried that China may face the risk of Soviet-style decline.
After the events of the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989, compared to Deng Xiaoping who restarted economic reform in 1992, Xi Jinping appears to be more concerned about the ideological and organizational deficiencies within the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. He has increased political purges and thoroughly suppressed civil society.
In recent years, China’s economy has struggled to recover after abandoning its dynamic “zero-COVID” policy characterized by strict control. Local governments are burdened with massive debts, industries are in a slump, unemployment is on the rise, and societal discontent is boiling over. A week before the 75th anniversary of the party’s rule, the Chinese Communist Party announced extensive stimulus measures to boost the economy; however, the long-term effects are generally not well-received by overseas economic experts.
While Xi Jinping has eliminated potential rivals within the party’s top echelons, in March 2022, he warned officials at the Central Party School not to be “people with different intentions, living in another camp, and having different dreams.” Ten years after the anti-corruption campaign, the Chinese Communist Party has launched another wave of purges. Even two State Councilors personally elevated by Xi Jinping, Qin Gang and Li Shangfu, along with many generals, have fallen from grace.
Information regarding Xi Jinping’s fear of his regime’s downfall surfaces from time to time. He has even quoted some “collapse of a nation” poems himself.
When Xi Jinping first came to power, at the end of 2012, he quoted a “collapse of a nation” poem. Discussing the collapse of the Soviet Union, he said: “Gorbachev casually announced the dissolution of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, and this huge party vanished. Despite having more members proportionally than us, not a single man stood up to resist.”
The phrase “not a single man stood up to resist” is derived from a poem by Lady Huarui, the wife of Meng Chang, the last ruler of the Later Shu kingdom during the Five Dynasties period. The full poem reads: “The sovereign raises his flag on the city wall; I, in the deep palace, could never know; 140,000 men all taking off their armor, not a single one of them a true man.”
On July 1, 2023, the Communist Party’s founding day, the Party journal “Qiushi” published a speech made by Xi Jinping in March of last year at the Party School for young and middle-aged cadres. Xi Jinping cited a death poem by Li Houzhu of the Southern Tang Dynasty, expressing regret that no one within the Party believes in communism, fearing a collapse similar to that of the Soviet Union.
“The Economist” article suggests that one of the common dangers of authoritarian regimes is the issue of succession of power. Xi seems to have not learned from the experience of the Soviet Union, showing no interest in nurturing a successor but rather amending the constitution to enable himself to rule indefinitely. As a result, the future transfer of power within the Chinese Communist Party may once again evoke memories of the tumultuous period of the Soviet Union.