China’s economy is on a downward trend, with high youth unemployment rates. Recently, Chongqing for the first time exported a large number of university graduates to the Middle East for employment, sparking concerns about the safety risks for students. Experts analyze that the Chinese Communist Party is promoting international employment only to solve the current employment crisis, and the issue of youth unemployment will seriously impact the CCP’s rule stability.
Chongqing Daily reported on July 29 that Chongqing city this year has initiated the batch export of university graduates, with over 70 recent graduates from 8 universities in Chongqing and Sichuan provinces being sent to work in Oman in the Middle East through introductions by Chongqing state-owned enterprises.
This international labor cooperation project is promoted by Chongqing Foreign Service Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Chongqing Development and Investment Corporation. The positions provided by Omani companies are mainly in technology and reserve management, with accommodation included. The monthly salary ranges from 12,000 to 18,000 yuan (RMB), with 14 monthly payments per year and two free round-trip flight tickets annually.
The over 70 university students sent to work in Oman come from 8 schools including Chongqing Normal University, Chongqing Vocational Institute of Engineering, focusing on chemical engineering, with support in electrical automation and English majors. After working for 2 years, they have the option to renew their contracts. Official reports mentioned Zhao Songtian, a graduate from the English department of Chongqing Institute of Foreign Affairs, who has just started working for a large new energy company in Oman.
The discussions on this topic on Weibo are not extensive. Some netizens express worries: “Will there be security risks in that place?” “Is there a shortage of organ donors there?” “If accommodation and meals are provided, even if there are risks, many people will rush to go.” There are also netizens who say, “It seems that this model may become more common in the future, as there are many graduates here and difficulty in finding employment, while some countries are in need of manpower.”
On a platform called Overseas X, netizens question: “Another Myanmar?” “It seems like a recurrence of selling piglets in the 19th century.”
Sun Guoxiang, Associate Professor of International Affairs and Business at Taiwan’s Nanhua University, told Epoch Times that Chongqing’s international employment initiative is merely a short-term solution to the current employment crisis.
He pointed out that mainland China has been criticized for exporting its surplus industrial capacity to the international market and dumping goods in other countries, and now Chinese universities are similar to “excess capacity.” “Exporting graduates is causing disruptions in foreign talent markets by exporting mainland Chinese talent abroad.”
Sun Guoxiang said that the CCP has always been engaged in united front work with young people in Taiwan, encouraging young Taiwanese to work in mainland China. However, the problem is that even Chongqing, as a direct-administered city, cannot properly arrange employment for university students and needs to send them to work in the Middle East, which clearly highlights the issue.
Furthermore, in mature countries, like Japanese seeking jobs in the United States or Americans seeking jobs in Japan, their retirement pension and labor insurance are guaranteed by the governments. However, the cases promoted by the CCP do not mention whether the Chinese government and countries like Oman have signed agreements on the rights, job security, and personal safety during international employment. Sun Guoxiang said, “Therefore, we see that it is only addressing the current issues in mainland China.”
Zhao Xiaohui, founder and CEO of Taiwan’s “Zhuojian Creative” and convener of the “Zhengyan Taotaoke” financial forum, told Epoch Times that normally university students wouldn’t choose to go to the Middle East. Because Oman is not a major world power, it doesn’t hold much attraction for university students, and there are also safety risks involved.
“That region (Middle East) is like a powder keg, with the risk of conflict. Of course, to a certain extent, it can train students in crisis management or risk avoidance skills, but ultimately, the main concern for university students is whether there is a future.”
Oman is a country located in southeast coastal Arabia, bordering the United Arab Emirates to the north, neighboring Saudi Arabia to the west, and close to Yemen to the southwest. The ongoing conflict in Israel and Palestine involving multiple Middle Eastern countries has already erupted. Although the conflict is still a distance away from Oman, Voice of America reported at the end of last year that there are indications that the CCP intends to build military facilities in Oman to expand its influence in the Middle East. The crisis that would arise if the Middle East conflict were to escalate also raises concerns.
At the Communist Party’s Politburo meeting yesterday (July 30), it had to admit that “domestic effective demand is insufficient, the economy is showing differentiation, and there are still many hidden risks in key areas.”
Among the various risks, the wave of unemployment is a major issue. Official data shows that in 2024, the number of Chinese university graduates reached 11.79 million, setting a new historical high. According to a May report released by the Zhaopin recruitment platform titled “2024 Graduates Employment Strength Survey,” as of mid-April, only 48% of graduates had received informal employment notices, worse than last year. Predictions suggest that in the second half of the year, the pressure on youth employment will increase.
After the youth unemployment rate for those aged 16 to 24 rose to 21.3% last June, the National Bureau of Statistics of the CCP temporarily stopped publishing this data. The bureau excluded students from the unemployment rate data and divided the age group of 25 to 59 into two groups. In January this year, it resumed publishing youth unemployment rate data, claiming it was only 14.9%, which was criticized as being an attempt to cover up the real situation. In fact, in July last year, Beijing University professor Zhang Dandan estimated that the actual youth unemployment rate in China was as high as 46.5%.
The recent hot topic in the media about the “social security discontinuation trend” among workers is also believed to be related to the wave of unemployment.
Faced with the dilemma where graduation for university students equals unemployment, universities like Guangxi Normal University, Shenyang University of Technology, Xi’an International Studies University, and Inner Mongolia Normal University have extended the duration of graduate studies, changing some programs from the original 2-year plan to 3 years. The reasons given by the universities are “enhancing the quality of graduate education” and “the need for professional graduate education,” but it is perceived by the public as a stopgap measure to cope with employment pressures.
Zhao Xiaohui stated that China’s unemployment issue is structural and rooted in the dangerous collapse of its economy. Currently, whether the CCP government sends university students to work in the Middle East or extends the study period for postgraduates and doctoral students, it is merely a stopgap measure. Students who were supposed to enter the workforce now have to remain in school for an additional year, wasting educational resources.
In recent years, the situation of high-educated but low-employed young scholars has attracted attention.
The Security Department of the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) in Anhui recently recruited assistants, requiring at least “a master’s degree or above.” This sparked discussions about master’s students working as security guards. USTC explained that most positions require technical skills or strong writing abilities, and the recruitment requirements were within the normal scope.
Sun Guoxiang stated that the recruitment by USTC’s Security Department reflects the current phenomenon of highly educated talents in mainland China competing for low-threshold positions, and this is just the tip of the iceberg. This situation will create pressure on the psychology and economic burden of young people in mainland China.
Zhao Xiaohui believes that the youth unemployment issue in China cannot be resolved, and at least four major impacts can be identified.
First, university students cannot find suitable employment and will face increasing situations of low pay and compromising situations. Second, there will be a significant number of young people relying on their families, increasing the economic burden on the Chinese population. Third, due to being unemployed and without money, young people may delay marriage, or even choose not to marry or have children, leading to a decline in the population dividend in China, which would have a very negative impact on consumption and productivity, eventually dragging down the CCP government’s finances.
“The fourth point is that Chinese young people will lose confidence in the future, which may endanger the CCP’s rule. When the public is forced against the wall and has nothing to eat, it is indeed a very dangerous situation.”
Sun Guoxiang added that it might take some time, but the consequences of youth unemployment will become increasingly apparent. Many young people already believe there is no hope for the future and are adopting a “lying flat” attitude towards life. If the extent or pace of this “lying flat” trend becomes too large or too fast, it will lead to the emergence of a lost generation in China.