On June 18, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was reported at 60,500 yuan per metric ton, with the lowest spot price at 59,900 yuan per metric ton, breaking through the 60,000 yuan per metric ton mark. In November 2022, lithium carbonate had reached approximately 560,000 yuan per metric ton. Some institutions predict that an oversupply situation will continue to weaken the price of lithium carbonate.
According to data from Shanghai Nonferrous Metal Network, on June 18, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 60,500 yuan per metric ton, a year-on-year decrease of 37.6%. Since the beginning of 2025, the price of lithium has fallen by nearly 20%.
From its peak of around 560,000 yuan per metric ton in November 2022, the price of lithium has dropped by nearly 90% in just two and a half years. Whether the price of lithium carbonate has bottomed out has been a topic of hot discussion among investors. After falling below 60,000 yuan per metric ton at the end of May, the main contract has continued to fluctuate around 60,000 yuan per metric ton, with the lowest reported at 58,760 yuan per metric ton.
According to a report by the Securities Times on June 17, Han Minhua, an industry analyst at Zhuochuang Information Fubao Lithium, analyzed, “In January this year, the domestic spot price of lithium carbonate was still around 77,000 yuan per ton, but by May 29, the price had fluctuated down to 59,600 yuan per ton, a decrease of 22.6%.”
Regarding the reasons for the rapid decline in the price of lithium carbonate this year, Han Minhua believes that the continued supply and demand imbalance in China remains the main issue suppressing the market, while the decrease in raw material prices is another factor affecting the decline in the price of lithium carbonate. After the second quarter of this year, there has been less consumption growth in terminal industries than expected. Although domestic lithium carbonate factories have made adjustments to production, domestic and imported sources are plentiful. The decline in lithium prices has dragged down upstream mineral prices simultaneously, and the decrease in mineral prices has further pushed down lithium prices.
Zheng Xiaoqiang, an analyst at the lithium industry department of Shanghai Steel Union’s New Energy Business Division, also believes that the supply of lithium carbonate will continue to be in excess in 2025. Against the backdrop of strong supply and weak demand, lithium carbonate prices will continue to decline. Subsequently, impacted by the off-peak season in downstream consumption, prices are showing a continuous downward trend. In the long run, there are still no obvious signs of improvement in the oversupply situation in the market, and lithium prices will gradually approach the mid-range cost of lithium mines.
Lithium is the lightest metal in nature, with high energy density, light mass, and small volume, making it an excellent material for battery manufacturing. Its compounds lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide have become the main materials for the cathodes of new energy vehicle power batteries.
The Securities Times believes that as an upstream player in the lithium industry chain, the sharp drop in lithium carbonate prices has significantly impacted downstream product markets, with prices of various lithium products such as lithium iron phosphate and lithium hydroxide showing a downward trend.
Under production and operating pressure, the investment heat in the lithium market has cooled down. Jiang Jiahui, an analyst at the lithium industry department of Shanghai Steel Union’s New Energy Business Division, told the Securities Times that the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate enterprises is around 60%.
Guo Xiaolin, assistant director of investment in the equity investment department at Bosera Fund, analyzed to Economic Observation Network, “The uncertainty of tariff policies will bring uncertainty to the demand for lithium, as the United States has a higher proportion in the global energy storage market. Overall, lithium carbonate is still in a state of oversupply, and at the price of 60,000 yuan per metric ton, there is still a possibility of further bottoming out.”