As the United States imposed a 145% tariff on Chinese goods, the volume of freight exports from China to the United States has significantly declined, putting pressure on the trans-Pacific supply chain. Logistics operators point out that currently there has been a sharp decrease in container orders on the China-US route, and air freight demand is also declining, leading to rapid adjustments in corporate supply chain layout and inventory strategies.
These developments indicate that Trump’s tariff policies are rapidly reshaping US-China trade. The slowdown in exports and reduced transportation volume not only affect corporate supply chain layout but also signal that the market will face longer-term adjustment pressures. With negotiations unresolved and the deadline for new tariffs approaching, the future trends of the freight industry and retail market are becoming a focal point of attention.
According to the latest data from container tracking service Vizion, in mid-April, the volume of 20-foot standard containers (TEU) scheduled on the China-US route decreased by 45% compared to the same period last year.
The Port of Los Angeles, as a major import port for Chinese goods, anticipates a one-third year-on-year decline in cargo volume starting from the week of May 4; air carriers also report significant decreases in order volume.
According to the Financial Times on April 27, global shipping company Hapag-Lloyd stated that about 30% of its orders from Chinese export businesses have been canceled.
Sea-Intelligence, a shipping data analysis company, indicates that within four weeks starting from May 5, bookings for containers on the Asia to North America route have decreased by nearly 400,000 standard containers compared to the original plan, an overall drop of 25% since early March. In the case of the Port of Los Angeles alone, there are expected to be 20 “blank sailings” in May, equivalent to over 250,000 containers, far exceeding the 6 times in April.
The Airforwarders Association of America stated that air cargo orders from China made by its member companies have dropped by approximately 30%.
Lavinia Lau, Chief Commercial Officer of Cathay Pacific Airways in Hong Kong, pointed out that due to changes in tariffs and de minimis policies, the demand for air cargo between China and the US is expected to soften.
Easyway Air Freight, a Hong Kong freight forwarder, also revealed that following the tariff increase, air cargo business between China and the US has shrunk by about 50%.
On the same day, the Washington Post quoted Ryan Petersen, founder of US logistics company Flexport, who stated that within three weeks since the new tariffs took effect, bookings for sea freight containers from China to the US have dropped by over 60%.
Industry observers point out that US importers are adjusting their strategies to cope with supply chain pressures and potential cost increases.
Nathan Strang, Shipping Director at Flexport, stated that companies are waiting to ship until a tariff agreement is reached between the US and China. Currently, most companies are choosing to first deplete their stock, postpone importing new goods from China, and are storing goods in bonded warehouses (where goods can be stored duty-free and taxes are paid upon withdrawal) or redirecting them to nearby countries such as Canada. He noted: “Companies are stocking up at both origins and destinations.”
Strang warned that once a tariff reduction agreement is reached, prices could sharply increase.
Container prices also reflect the realignment of supply chains. According to data from logistics platform Freightos, the price of 40-foot containers exported from Vietnam to the US has increased by 15%, while prices on the main China-US routes have decreased by 27%.
Judah Levine, Research Director at Freightos, stated: “With the expiration of tariff exemptions in early July, freight rates from other Asian countries may continue to rise.”
As businesses actively adjust inventory and procurement strategies, market supply and demand are rapidly changing.
Knight-Swift Transportation, a major US trucking company, pointed out that some large customers have suspended or canceled orders from China due to rising tariff costs, emphasizing the uncertainty posed by tariffs.
Retail consultancy firm Momentum Commerce observes that consumers are shifting towards lower-priced goods, while prices of some items have started to rise.
Although overall economic indicators have not yet fully reflected the impact of the decline in freight volume, as the US-China trade war intensifies, the logistics and retail industries widely believe that the trends of supply chain adjustments and market price changes will gradually become apparent in the coming months.