The President-elect of the Republic of China (Taiwan), Lai Ching-te, will be inaugurated in Taipei next Monday, May 20th. As Taiwan undergoes a leadership transition, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been increasing pressure on Taiwan.
On May 9th, the CCP’s coast guard ships, along with 12 vessels and 210 personnel, conducted a simulated fishing vessel collision rescue exercise under the pretext of a “fishing boat collision incident.” Eleven of these vessels entered waters around Taiwan that are either restricted or prohibited.
In the first two weeks of May, the CCP’s coast guard patrolled near Kinmen five times, compared to only four times in the entire month of April. Kinmen is less than 2 kilometers away from mainland China and has always been at the forefront of tensions in the Taiwan Strait. Earlier this month, the CCP’s latest aircraft carrier, the “Fujian,” underwent its maiden sea trials.
CCP military aircraft and warships have made six continuous activities around the Taiwan Strait, prompting multiple warnings from Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense. According to foreign reports, when CCP military aircraft and ships harassed Taiwan in recent weeks, they not only approached Taiwan more aggressively than before but also simulated attacks on foreign ships.
The Taiwan government has urged Beijing not to use military means to disrupt regional peace and stability.
In addition to increasing military provocations, the CCP has also been attempting to influence public opinion in Taiwan. This week, the CCP announced punitive measures against several political commentators in Taiwan, accusing them of being “separatists” who “intentionally fabricate false negative information about the mainland.” The CCP also mentioned forthcoming legal measures.
Professor Takeshi Watanabe from Keio University in Japan told Nikkei Asia that this “soft pressure” is evolving into another battleground.
“There is a strong sense of crisis in Taiwan regarding the dissemination of false information and influencing public opinion, perhaps even stronger than the fear of a military invasion,” Watanabe said.
Ja Ian Chong, Associate Professor of Political Science at the National University of Singapore, also stated that the recent actions by the CCP may be aimed at increasing pressure on Lai Ching-te, hoping to force him to make mistakes and thereby affect Taiwan’s international support.
“Pressure on Lai Ching-te is mounting,” Chong said. “Given the CCP’s efforts to portray Lai Ching-te as a strong supporter of Taiwan independence and a troublemaker, it appears that Beijing is attempting to use pressure to push Lai Ching-te into making mistakes,” thereby shaping negative international opinions of Lai Ching-te.
Lai Ching-te, a member of the Democratic Progressive Party, won the presidential election in January. The CCP has labeled Lai Ching-te as a dangerous separatist based on his previous self-identification as a “pragmatic advocate of Taiwanese independence.”
Most international analysts believe that Lai Ching-te will largely continue the foreign policy of his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen. Particularly notable is Lai Ching-te’s selection of former Taiwanese representative to the US, Hsiao Mei-chin, as Vice President, seen as enhancing mutual trust between Taiwan and the US and laying the foundation for deepening US-Taiwan relations.
Chairman of the Congressional Taiwan Caucus, Ami Bera, said that he met Lai Ching-te when he visited the US as a legislator and also during Bera’s visit to Taiwan last year. Bera specially came to Taiwan in January to congratulate Lai Ching-te on his election. Based on their interactions, Bera believes Lai Ching-te is a “thoughtful leader.”
Bera elaborated that both he and Lai Ching-te were doctors before entering politics, sharing a dedication to serve people now. He believes Lai Ching-te will not seek conflict.
“I think Lai Ching-te will continue Tsai Ing-wen’s path, build on it, and add his own achievements,” Bera said.
Lai Ching-te’s inaugural speech next Monday will be closely watched internationally as it may provide insight into the potential direction of cross-strait relations.
Alessio Patalano, an East Asian warfare and strategy expert at King’s College London, told Nikkei Asia, “Taiwan’s response is both publicly opposing China’s actions and undergoing military reforms to enhance its own capabilities to counter the CCP’s escalating provocative behavior.”
He indicated that Taiwan’s challenge is to “prevent further deterioration of the situation while avoiding giving China an excuse to take further actions.”