The Chief Economist of Guotou Securities and Director of Guotou Industry Research Institute, Gao Shanwen, has resigned from the company. Currently, there is no information about Gao Shanwen on the website of the China Securities Association, indicating that he has left the company. Gao Shanwen previously stated that China’s economic growth rate is overestimated by 10 percentage points, which has angered the Chinese authorities.
According to a report by the “China Securities Journal” on November 24, Gao Shanwen, who served as the Director of the Guotou Industry Research Institute under Guotou Securities, has left the company. His information cannot be found on the website of the China Securities Association.
Gao Shanwen was last seen publicly on September 18 this year when he delivered a speech via video at the “Global Financial Forum” welcome dinner hosted by Peking University as the President of the Peking University Finance Alumni Association.
In a seminar held in Guotou Securities at the end of last year, Gao Shanwen mentioned that China’s economic growth rate has been overestimated by 10 percentage points in the past three years. The rumor of Gao Shanwen being fired by Guotou Securities immediately emerged after his statement, but it was quickly debunked as there was no change in his information on the China Securities Association’s official website at that time.
During the 2025 Investment Strategy Conference held by Guotou Securities in Shenzhen on December 3, 2024, Gao Shanwen mentioned that the COVID-19 pandemic and the prevalent realities in Chinese society could be summarized as “lively elderly, lifeless young, hopeless middle-aged.”
Analyzing the situation, Gao Shanwen pointed out that the retirement income of the elderly is expected to be distributed on time and in full amount, with stable growth in the future. On the other hand, the younger generation has significantly lowered their expectations and certainty about future income growth, leading to restrained consumption and economic difficulties.
He bluntly stated that by comparing data such as prices, employment, and GDP details, it can be inferred that China’s economic growth rate may have been overestimated by an average of 3 percentage points annually since the outbreak of the pandemic and the burst of the property bubble in recent years. The accumulated overestimation of economic total output over the past few years may be around 10 percentage points, which is close to the estimated loss of 47 million labor force in urban employment, approximately 10% of the total urban employment population.
Shortly after making these statements, Gao Shanwen’s social platform account was suspended, but his position at Guotou Securities was retained.
On December 12, 2024, Gao Shanwen was invited to attend a forum jointly organized by the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) in Washington, D.C., and the Chinese think tank “China Finance Forty Forum,” where he delivered a speech. The forum was attended by several renowned Chinese scholars.
During his speech, Gao Shanwen stated, “We cannot know the true growth figures of China’s economy. My personal estimate is that the actual average GDP growth over the past two to three years may be around 2%, despite official figures being close to 5%.”
Gao Shanwen’s speech at the Washington event has garnered attention among domestic and international economists and analysts.
On January 8 this year, the “Wall Street Journal” cited sources stating that Gao Shanwen’s remarks had infuriated the CCP leader Xi Jinping, who then ordered an investigation into Gao Shanwen.
Prior to Gao Shanwen, Zhu Hengpeng, the Deputy Director of the Institute of Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, was investigated in the second half of 2024 and was detained and dismissed. Sources mentioned that he made some “inappropriate” remarks in a private chat group, including comments on the sluggish Chinese economy and some “implicit criticisms” of Xi Jinping’s personal life or fate.
Zhu Hengpeng’s name no longer appears on the leadership introduction page of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of Economics website.
The webpage listing the members of the Academic Committee of the Industrial Development and Environmental Governance Research Center at Tsinghua University has also removed Zhu Hengpeng’s name. An insider revealed that Zhu Hengpeng joined the academic committee in December 2022, and such appointments are typically indefinite.